Assignment_2_Rishabh_arora

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Conestoga College *

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8010

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Computer Science

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Feb 20, 2024

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Assignment_2_Rishabh_arora.R Rishabh Arora 2024-02-13 library (readxl) library (pROC) ## Type 'citation("pROC")' for a citation. ## ## Attaching package: 'pROC' ## The following objects are masked from 'package:stats': ## ## cov, smooth, var library (dplyr) ## ## Attaching package: 'dplyr' ## The following objects are masked from 'package:stats': ## ## filter, lag ## The following objects are masked from 'package:base': ## ## intersect, setdiff, setequal, union library (caret) ## Loading required package: ggplot2 ## Loading required package: lattice library (glmnet) ## Warning: package 'glmnet' was built under R version 4.3.2 ## Loading required package: Matrix ## Warning: package 'Matrix' was built under R version 4.3.2 ## Loaded glmnet 4.1-8 library (randomForest) ## Warning: package 'randomForest' was built under R version 4.3.2 ## randomForest 4.7-1.1

## Type rfNews() to see new features/changes/bug fixes. ## ## Attaching package: 'randomForest' ## The following object is masked from 'package:ggplot2': ## ## margin ## The following object is masked from 'package:dplyr': ## ## combine file_path <- "C:/Users/Rishabh Arora/Downloads/grey.xlsx" sheet_names <- excel_sheets (file_path) greydata <- read_excel (file_path, sheet = sheet_names[ 2 ]) head (greydata) ## # A tibble: 6 × 38 ## CustomerID Age HomeOwner ResidenceLength DwellingType Gender Marital ## <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <chr> <chr> <chr> ## 1 1 70 10 1 M F M ## 2 2 65 10 4 M F S ## 3 3 76 10 1 M F M ## 4 4 54 10 1 M F S ## 5 5 78 10 7 M M M ## 6 6 40 10 1 M F M ## # 31 more variables: HouseholdSize <dbl>, ChildPresent <chr>, ℹ Child0.5 <dbl>, ## # Child6.12 <dbl>, Child13.18 <dbl>, Income <dbl>, Occupation <chr>, ## # HomeValue <dbl>, MagazineStatus <chr>, PaidDirectMailOrders <dbl>, ## # YearsSinceLastOrder <dbl>, TotalAmountPaid <dbl>, DollarsPerIssue <dbl>, ## # TotalPaidOrders <dbl>, MonthsSinceLastPayment <dbl>, LastPaymentType <chr>, ## # UnpaidMagazines <dbl>, PaidCashMagazines <dbl>, ## # PaidReinstateMagazines <dbl>, PaidCreditMagazines <dbl>, … str (greydata)

## tibble [42,077 × 38] (S3: tbl_df/tbl/data.frame) ## $ CustomerID : num [1:42077] 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ... ## $ Age : num [1:42077] 70 65 76 54 78 40 60 27 42 24 ... ## $ HomeOwner : num [1:42077] 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 ... ## $ ResidenceLength : num [1:42077] 1 4 1 1 7 1 5 1 13 2 ... ## $ DwellingType : chr [1:42077] "M" "M" "M" "M" ... ## $ Gender : chr [1:42077] "F" "F" "F" "F" ... ## $ Marital : chr [1:42077] "M" "S" "M" "S" ... ## $ HouseholdSize : num [1:42077] 3 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 ... ## $ ChildPresent : chr [1:42077] "Y" "U" "N" "U" ... ## $ Child0.5 : num [1:42077] 45 35 25 0 35 65 15 45 15 15 ... ## $ Child6.12 : num [1:42077] 35 15 15 15 15 55 35 15 15 25 ... ## $ Child13.18 : num [1:42077] 100 35 25 0 15 85 15 15 15 15 ... ## $ Income : num [1:42077] 29000 13000 36000 23000 5000 30000 144000 5000 20000 24000 ... ## $ Occupation : chr [1:42077] "R" "M" "U" "M" ... ## $ HomeValue : num [1:42077] 4 8 7 3 9 2 5 5 9 4 ... ## $ MagazineStatus : chr [1:42077] "B" "E" "E" "E" ... ## $ PaidDirectMailOrders : num [1:42077] 2 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ... ## $ YearsSinceLastOrder : num [1:42077] 8 4 3 5 3 4 0 4 3 3 ... ## $ TotalAmountPaid : num [1:42077] 50 40 60 41.5 97 ... ## $ DollarsPerIssue : num [1:42077] 0.36 0.48 0.62 0.38 1.47 0.61 0 0 0.92 0.67 ... ## $ TotalPaidOrders : num [1:42077] 3 4 3 3 4 2 1 1 1 2 ... ## $ MonthsSinceLastPayment: num [1:42077] 89 39 53 68 37 59 60 55 50 47 ... ## $ LastPaymentType : chr [1:42077] "0" "A" "1" "2" ... ## $ UnpaidMagazines : num [1:42077] 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ... ## $ PaidCashMagazines : num [1:42077] 2 2 0 0 2 2 1 1 1 2 ... ## $ PaidReinstateMagazines: num [1:42077] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ... ## $ PaidCreditMagazines : num [1:42077] 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 ... ## $ ActiveSubscriptions : num [1:42077] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ... ## $ ExpiredSubscriptions : num [1:42077] 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 ... ## $ RequestedCancellations: num [1:42077] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ... ## $ NoPayCancellations : num [1:42077] 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 ... ## $ PaidComplaints : num [1:42077] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ... ## $ GiftDonor : chr [1:42077] "N" "Y" "N" "N" ... ## $ NumberGiftDonations : num [1:42077] 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ... ## $ MonthsSince1stOrder : num [1:42077] 118 90 91 158 50 59 60 55 50 47 ... ## $ MonthsSinceLastOrder : num [1:42077] 89 90 54 60 37 59 60 55 50 47 ... ## $ MonthsSinceExpire : num [1:42077] 52 52 17 20 34 46 47 42 25 34 ... ## $ Renewal : chr [1:42077] "No" "No" "No" "No" ...

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summary (greydata) ## CustomerID Age HomeOwner ResidenceLength ## Min. : 1 Min. :18.00 Min. : 0.00 Min. : 1.000 ## 1st Qu.:10520 1st Qu.:42.00 1st Qu.:100.00 1st Qu.: 4.000 ## Median :21039 Median :52.00 Median :100.00 Median : 9.000 ## Mean :21039 Mean :51.64 Mean : 89.23 Mean : 8.525 ## 3rd Qu.:31558 3rd Qu.:62.00 3rd Qu.:100.00 3rd Qu.:14.000 ## Max. :42077 Max. :84.00 Max. :100.00 Max. :14.000 ## DwellingType Gender Marital HouseholdSize ## Length:42077 Length:42077 Length:42077 Min. :1.00 ## Class :character Class :character Class :character 1st Qu.:2.00 ## Mode :character Mode :character Mode :character Median :3.00 ## Mean :3.16 ## 3rd Qu.:4.00 ## Max. :6.00 ## ChildPresent Child0.5 Child6.12 Child13.18 ## Length:42077 Min. : 0.00 Min. : 0.00 Min. : 0.00 ## Class :character 1st Qu.: 15.00 1st Qu.: 0.00 1st Qu.: 25.00 ## Mode :character Median : 45.00 Median : 35.00 Median : 45.00 ## Mean : 43.49 Mean : 43.06 Mean : 50.58 ## 3rd Qu.: 65.00 3rd Qu.:100.00 3rd Qu.:100.00 ## Max. :100.00 Max. :100.00 Max. :100.00 ## Income Occupation HomeValue MagazineStatus ## Min. : 5000 Length:42077 Min. :1.000 Length:42077 ## 1st Qu.: 42500 Class :character 1st Qu.:3.000 Class :character ## Median : 78000 Mode :character Median :4.000 Mode :character ## Mean : 91223 Mean :4.365 ## 3rd Qu.:122000 3rd Qu.:6.000 ## Max. :500000 Max. :9.000

## PaidDirectMailOrders YearsSinceLastOrder TotalAmountPaid DollarsPerIssue ## Min. : 0.0000 Min. : 0.000 Min. : 0.00 Min. :0.0000 ## 1st Qu.: 0.0000 1st Qu.: 3.000 1st Qu.: 19.00 1st Qu.:0.5200 ## Median : 0.0000 Median : 5.000 Median : 40.00 Median :0.7100 ## Mean : 0.8113 Mean : 5.332 Mean : 59.41 Mean :0.7511 ## 3rd Qu.: 1.0000 3rd Qu.: 8.000 3rd Qu.: 80.91 3rd Qu.:0.9200 ## Max. :16.0000 Max. :15.000 Max. :1304.73 Max. :5.0000 ## TotalPaidOrders MonthsSinceLastPayment LastPaymentType UnpaidMagazines ## Min. : 0.000 Min. : 0.00 Length:42077 Min. : 0.00 ## 1st Qu.: 1.000 1st Qu.: 32.00 Class :character 1st Qu.: 0.00 ## Median : 2.000 Median : 57.00 Mode :character Median : 0.00 ## Mean : 3.762 Mean : 60.44 Mean : 0.21 ## 3rd Qu.: 5.000 3rd Qu.: 88.00 3rd Qu.: 0.00 ## Max. :109.000 Max. :312.00 Max. :10.00 ## PaidCashMagazines PaidReinstateMagazines PaidCreditMagazines ## Min. : 0.000 Min. :0.00000 Min. :0.0000 ## 1st Qu.: 1.000 1st Qu.:0.00000 1st Qu.:0.0000 ## Median : 1.000 Median :0.00000 Median :0.0000 ## Mean : 1.479 Mean :0.05749 Mean :0.5127 ## 3rd Qu.: 2.000 3rd Qu.:0.00000 3rd Qu.:1.0000 ## Max. :12.000 Max. :4.00000 Max. :8.0000 ## ActiveSubscriptions ExpiredSubscriptions RequestedCancellations ## Min. :0.0000 Min. : 1.000 Min. :0.0000 ## 1st Qu.:0.0000 1st Qu.: 1.000 1st Qu.:0.0000 ## Median :0.0000 Median : 2.000 Median :0.0000 ## Mean :0.1299 Mean : 1.978 Mean :0.1002 ## 3rd Qu.:0.0000 3rd Qu.: 3.000 3rd Qu.:0.0000 ## Max. :5.0000 Max. :13.000 Max. :9.0000 ## NoPayCancellations PaidComplaints GiftDonor NumberGiftDonations ## Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.000000 Length:42077 Min. : 0.0000 ## 1st Qu.:0.0000 1st Qu.:0.000000 Class :character 1st Qu.: 0.0000 ## Median :0.0000 Median :0.000000 Mode :character Median :

0.0000 ## Mean :0.1749 Mean :0.007058 Mean : 0.2854 ## 3rd Qu.:0.0000 3rd Qu.:0.000000 3rd Qu.: 0.0000 ## Max. :8.0000 Max. :2.000000 Max. :94.0000 ## MonthsSince1stOrder MonthsSinceLastOrder MonthsSinceExpire Renewal ## Min. : 6.0 Min. : 4.00 Min. : 3.00 Length:42077 ## 1st Qu.: 59.0 1st Qu.: 48.00 1st Qu.: 23.00 Class :character ## Median : 100.0 Median : 72.00 Median : 46.00 Mode :character ## Mean : 120.9 Mean : 75.18 Mean : 49.46 ## 3rd Qu.: 155.0 3rd Qu.:103.00 3rd Qu.: 73.00 ## Max. :1338.0 Max. :224.00 Max. :120.00 ##Q1.1 exploring and modifying data #Converting character variables to factors fact_var <- c ( "DwellingType" , "Gender" , "Marital" , "ChildPresent" , "Occupation" , "MagazineStatus" , "LastPaymentType" , "GiftDonor" , "Renewal" ) greydata[fact_var] <- lapply (greydata[fact_var], factor) summary (greydata) ## CustomerID Age HomeOwner ResidenceLength DwellingType ## Min. : 1 Min. :18.00 Min. : 0.00 Min. : 1.000 M: 4582 ## 1st Qu.:10520 1st Qu.:42.00 1st Qu.:100.00 1st Qu.: 4.000 S:37486 ## Median :21039 Median :52.00 Median :100.00 Median : 9.000 U: 9 ## Mean :21039 Mean :51.64 Mean : 89.23 Mean : 8.525 ## 3rd Qu.:31558 3rd Qu.:62.00 3rd Qu.:100.00 3rd Qu.:14.000 ## Max. :42077 Max. :84.00 Max. :100.00 Max. :14.000 ## ## Gender Marital HouseholdSize ChildPresent Child0.5 ## F:35172 M:30747 Min. :1.00 N:12038 Min. : 0.00 ## M: 6460 S:11301 1st Qu.:2.00 U: 3807 1st Qu.: 15.00

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## U: 445 U: 29 Median :3.00 Y:26232 Median : 45.00 ## Mean :3.16 Mean : 43.49 ## 3rd Qu.:4.00 3rd Qu.: 65.00 ## Max. :6.00 Max. :100.00 ## ## Child6.12 Child13.18 Income Occupation HomeValue ## Min. : 0.00 Min. : 0.00 Min. : 5000 B: 3692 Min. :1.000 ## 1st Qu.: 0.00 1st Qu.: 25.00 1st Qu.: 42500 H: 2831 1st Qu.:3.000 ## Median : 35.00 Median : 45.00 Median : 78000 M: 9727 Median :4.000 ## Mean : 43.06 Mean : 50.58 Mean : 91223 R: 3340 Mean :4.365 ## 3rd Qu.:100.00 3rd Qu.:100.00 3rd Qu.:122000 U: 7852 3rd Qu.:6.000 ## Max. :100.00 Max. :100.00 Max. :500000 W:14635 Max. :9.000 ## ## MagazineStatus PaidDirectMailOrders YearsSinceLastOrder TotalAmountPaid ## A: 4792 Min. : 0.0000 Min. : 0.000 Min. : 0.00 ## B: 2674 1st Qu.: 0.0000 1st Qu.: 3.000 1st Qu.: 19.00 ## C: 1406 Median : 0.0000 Median : 5.000 Median : 40.00 ## E:17944 Mean : 0.8113 Mean : 5.332 Mean : 59.41 ## O:15145 3rd Qu.: 1.0000 3rd Qu.: 8.000 3rd Qu.: 80.91 ## S: 116 Max. :16.0000 Max. :15.000 Max. :1304.73 ## ## DollarsPerIssue TotalPaidOrders MonthsSinceLastPayment LastPaymentType ## Min. :0.0000 Min. : 0.000 Min. : 0.00 A :28727 ## 1st Qu.:0.5200 1st Qu.: 1.000 1st Qu.: 32.00 1 : 4922 ## Median :0.7100 Median : 2.000 Median : 57.00 0 : 1781 ## Mean :0.7511 Mean : 3.762 Mean : 60.44 2 : 1716 ## 3rd Qu.:0.9200 3rd Qu.: 5.000 3rd Qu.: 88.00 F : 1483 ## Max. :5.0000 Max. :109.000 Max. :312.00 S :

673 ## (Other): 2775 ## UnpaidMagazines PaidCashMagazines PaidReinstateMagazines PaidCreditMagazines ## Min. : 0.00 Min. : 0.000 Min. :0.00000 Min. :0.0000 ## 1st Qu.: 0.00 1st Qu.: 1.000 1st Qu.:0.00000 1st Qu.:0.0000 ## Median : 0.00 Median : 1.000 Median :0.00000 Median :0.0000 ## Mean : 0.21 Mean : 1.479 Mean :0.05749 Mean :0.5127 ## 3rd Qu.: 0.00 3rd Qu.: 2.000 3rd Qu.:0.00000 3rd Qu.:1.0000 ## Max. :10.00 Max. :12.000 Max. :4.00000 Max. :8.0000 ## ## ActiveSubscriptions ExpiredSubscriptions RequestedCancellations ## Min. :0.0000 Min. : 1.000 Min. :0.0000 ## 1st Qu.:0.0000 1st Qu.: 1.000 1st Qu.:0.0000 ## Median :0.0000 Median : 2.000 Median :0.0000 ## Mean :0.1299 Mean : 1.978 Mean :0.1002 ## 3rd Qu.:0.0000 3rd Qu.: 3.000 3rd Qu.:0.0000 ## Max. :5.0000 Max. :13.000 Max. :9.0000 ## ## NoPayCancellations PaidComplaints GiftDonor NumberGiftDonations ## Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.000000 N:37781 Min. : 0.0000 ## 1st Qu.:0.0000 1st Qu.:0.000000 Y: 4296 1st Qu.: 0.0000 ## Median :0.0000 Median :0.000000 Median : 0.0000 ## Mean :0.1749 Mean :0.007058 Mean : 0.2854 ## 3rd Qu.:0.0000 3rd Qu.:0.000000 3rd Qu.: 0.0000 ## Max. :8.0000 Max. :2.000000 Max. :94.0000 ## ## MonthsSince1stOrder MonthsSinceLastOrder MonthsSinceExpire Renewal ## Min. : 6.0 Min. : 4.00 Min. : 3.00 No :41183 ## 1st Qu.: 59.0 1st Qu.: 48.00 1st Qu.: 23.00 Yes: 894

## Median : 100.0 Median : 72.00 Median : 46.00 ## Mean : 120.9 Mean : 75.18 Mean : 49.46 ## 3rd Qu.: 155.0 3rd Qu.:103.00 3rd Qu.: 73.00 ## Max. :1338.0 Max. :224.00 Max. :120.00 ## colSums ( is.na (greydata)) ## CustomerID Age HomeOwner ## 0 0 0 ## ResidenceLength DwellingType Gender ## 0 0 0 ## Marital HouseholdSize ChildPresent ## 0 0 0 ## Child0.5 Child6.12 Child13.18 ## 0 0 0 ## Income Occupation HomeValue ## 0 0 0 ## MagazineStatus PaidDirectMailOrders YearsSinceLastOrder ## 0 0 0 ## TotalAmountPaid DollarsPerIssue TotalPaidOrders ## 0 0 0 ## MonthsSinceLastPayment LastPaymentType UnpaidMagazines ## 0 0 0 ## PaidCashMagazines PaidReinstateMagazines PaidCreditMagazines ## 0 0 0 ## ActiveSubscriptions ExpiredSubscriptions RequestedCancellations

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## 0 0 0 ## NoPayCancellations PaidComplaints GiftDonor ## 0 0 0 ## NumberGiftDonations MonthsSince1stOrder MonthsSinceLastOrder ## 0 0 0 ## MonthsSinceExpire Renewal ## 0 0 #variable with high corelation numdata <- greydata[ sapply (greydata, is.numeric)] corr_matrix <- cor (numdata) print (corr_matrix) ## CustomerID Age HomeOwner ResidenceLength ## CustomerID 1.000000000 -0.33184727 -0.253145556 - 0.174452403 ## Age -0.331847266 1.00000000 0.142860879 0.299291310 ## HomeOwner -0.253145556 0.14286088 1.000000000 0.280934998 ## ResidenceLength -0.174452403 0.29929131 0.280934998 1.000000000 ## HouseholdSize 0.028806675 -0.06795287 0.150733395 0.176035250 ## Child0.5 0.138650693 -0.30472457 0.027690312 - 0.035756252 ## Child6.12 0.145192992 -0.33967450 0.057148153 - 0.007592537 ## Child13.18 0.055244686 -0.12765800 0.115793603 0.128673733 ## Income -0.021477584 -0.03069579 0.207633236 0.109774867 ## HomeValue -0.022257242 -0.01099303 0.059091478 - 0.016730174 ## PaidDirectMailOrders -0.370053575 0.26456488 0.100484344 0.141772775 ## YearsSinceLastOrder -0.057324737 0.08456207 0.032798293 0.035289456 ## TotalAmountPaid -0.243727085 0.17420662 0.033960456 0.103972125 ## DollarsPerIssue 0.014621464 0.03271240 -0.024478715 0.010679179 ## TotalPaidOrders -0.303736273 0.21541529 0.078458311

0.135570684 ## MonthsSinceLastPayment -0.070759403 0.08601601 0.034882415 0.041855791 ## UnpaidMagazines -0.131020631 0.10495129 0.014739769 0.051729273 ## PaidCashMagazines 0.007089021 -0.01130039 -0.008171712 0.028799743 ## PaidReinstateMagazines -0.102893176 0.08866709 0.023312217 0.045917412 ## PaidCreditMagazines -0.246216582 0.11246187 0.075042495 0.060970364 ## ActiveSubscriptions -0.070547253 0.03354888 0.024733360 0.034960442 ## ExpiredSubscriptions -0.138197882 0.02618814 0.047487104 0.062306165 ## RequestedCancellations -0.123079880 0.10342953 0.034919347 0.072388366 ## NoPayCancellations 0.012875588 -0.05683241 -0.034690256 - 0.036311289 ## PaidComplaints -0.014338127 0.01979380 -0.008800245 0.004675741 ## NumberGiftDonations -0.102836157 0.07940075 0.030516253 0.041173141 ## MonthsSince1stOrder -0.337846242 0.26128775 0.126765416 0.189592219 ## MonthsSinceLastOrder -0.170914747 0.11350047 0.092077141 0.100638812 ## MonthsSinceExpire -0.096321354 0.08180228 0.085549745 0.088595649 ## HouseholdSize Child0.5 Child6.12 Child13.18 ## CustomerID 0.028806675 0.138650693 0.1451929920 0.0552446858 ## Age -0.067952873 -0.304724572 -0.3396745018 - 0.1276579970 ## HomeOwner 0.150733395 0.027690312 0.0571481535 0.1157936025 ## ResidenceLength 0.176035250 -0.035756252 -0.0075925371 0.1286737332 ## HouseholdSize 1.000000000 0.257190107 0.3102016111 0.3895974212 ## Child0.5 0.257190107 1.000000000 0.5004360917 0.2270845697 ## Child6.12 0.310201611 0.500436092 1.0000000000 0.4185440802 ## Child13.18 0.389597421 0.227084570 0.4185440802 1.0000000000 ## Income 0.247746309 0.117345480 0.1706923833 0.1883913327 ## HomeValue 0.061880885 -0.002429308 0.0540542023

0.0543149944 ## PaidDirectMailOrders 0.010616874 -0.081780568 -0.0702497573 - 0.0145537243 ## YearsSinceLastOrder -0.001125406 -0.119420588 -0.0397659260 0.0014256201 ## TotalAmountPaid 0.023815884 -0.041056222 -0.0286956850 0.0163333932 ## DollarsPerIssue -0.001391100 -0.059185309 -0.0300846527 0.0132268098 ## TotalPaidOrders 0.026347482 -0.047107492 -0.0390793343 0.0048755081 ## MonthsSinceLastPayment 0.004215917 -0.092767866 -0.0335793631 0.0045587124 ## UnpaidMagazines 0.020320320 -0.008358126 -0.0177757548 0.0009923008 ## PaidCashMagazines 0.042754793 0.084593565 0.0768557030 0.0486029445 ## PaidReinstateMagazines 0.017430056 -0.024192699 -0.0247494048 0.0063133670 ## PaidCreditMagazines 0.015013271 -0.022591626 0.0006091551 0.0120672293 ## ActiveSubscriptions 0.018555738 0.047920104 0.0261954580 0.0138351784 ## ExpiredSubscriptions 0.070326191 0.099384720 0.1310638430 0.0983954138 ## RequestedCancellations 0.022033276 -0.031369106 -0.0314745964 0.0006810198 ## NoPayCancellations 0.036582495 0.144432015 0.0891053913 0.0155014776 ## PaidComplaints 0.007682578 -0.003222106 -0.0006952938 0.0096160881 ## NumberGiftDonations -0.005189334 -0.032610738 -0.0247361040 - 0.0150460384 ## MonthsSince1stOrder 0.063717633 -0.085869341 -0.0517332831 0.0406157078 ## MonthsSinceLastOrder 0.050793217 -0.037083769 0.0290356121 0.0486954313 ## MonthsSinceExpire 0.049464752 -0.030493769 0.0333894425 0.0503755845 ## Income HomeValue PaidDirectMailOrders ## CustomerID -0.021477584 -0.022257242 - 0.37005357 ## Age -0.030695787 -0.010993027 0.26456488 ## HomeOwner 0.207633236 0.059091478 0.10048434 ## ResidenceLength 0.109774867 -0.016730174 0.14177277 ## HouseholdSize 0.247746309 0.061880885

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0.01061687 ## Child0.5 0.117345480 -0.002429308 - 0.08178057 ## Child6.12 0.170692383 0.054054202 - 0.07024976 ## Child13.18 0.188391333 0.054314994 - 0.01455372 ## Income 1.000000000 0.519899479 0.04267370 ## HomeValue 0.519899479 1.000000000 0.03339091 ## PaidDirectMailOrders 0.042673701 0.033390909 1.00000000 ## YearsSinceLastOrder 0.021148742 0.036936907 - 0.04679703 ## TotalAmountPaid 0.043519054 0.026238744 0.46516154 ## DollarsPerIssue 0.018023514 0.021140038 - 0.07556858 ## TotalPaidOrders 0.071452722 0.055865523 0.56867059 ## MonthsSinceLastPayment 0.025079086 0.041082648 - 0.03265605 ## UnpaidMagazines -0.027761490 -0.031681123 0.24300788 ## PaidCashMagazines 0.038717498 -0.007679461 0.07412758 ## PaidReinstateMagazines 0.004852932 -0.005420643 0.20409851 ## PaidCreditMagazines 0.049987956 0.042699463 0.50565811 ## ActiveSubscriptions 0.039900976 0.016191760 0.18849484 ## ExpiredSubscriptions 0.083936874 0.029869915 0.38437847 ## RequestedCancellations 0.002024003 -0.009404041 0.20300282 ## NoPayCancellations -0.025614404 -0.035441501 0.03755356 ## PaidComplaints -0.011699640 -0.016062636 0.02056556 ## NumberGiftDonations 0.033828005 0.037970368 0.17728953 ## MonthsSince1stOrder 0.099311814 0.078386834 0.40527016 ## MonthsSinceLastOrder 0.110736620 0.093011743 0.16845630 ## MonthsSinceExpire 0.111375108 0.091931279 0.03291118 ## YearsSinceLastOrder TotalAmountPaid

DollarsPerIssue ## CustomerID -0.057324737 -0.24372709 0.01462146 ## Age 0.084562072 0.17420662 0.03271240 ## HomeOwner 0.032798293 0.03396046 - 0.02447871 ## ResidenceLength 0.035289456 0.10397212 0.01067918 ## HouseholdSize -0.001125406 0.02381588 - 0.00139110 ## Child0.5 -0.119420588 -0.04105622 - 0.05918531 ## Child6.12 -0.039765926 -0.02869568 - 0.03008465 ## Child13.18 0.001425620 0.01633339 0.01322681 ## Income 0.021148742 0.04351905 0.01802351 ## HomeValue 0.036936907 0.02623874 0.02114004 ## PaidDirectMailOrders -0.046797028 0.46516154 - 0.07556858 ## YearsSinceLastOrder 1.000000000 -0.07454735 0.16331535 ## TotalAmountPaid -0.074547347 1.00000000 0.34335802 ## DollarsPerIssue 0.163315354 0.34335802 1.00000000 ## TotalPaidOrders -0.121126367 0.80316977 0.11417511 ## MonthsSinceLastPayment 0.802019327 -0.06938571 0.12550388 ## UnpaidMagazines -0.088958691 0.16085349 - 0.13659997 ## PaidCashMagazines -0.304212500 0.44943108 0.16538992 ## PaidReinstateMagazines 0.006628856 0.21468259 0.01806404 ## PaidCreditMagazines 0.019377361 0.25345594 - 0.05144049 ## ActiveSubscriptions -0.383731599 0.28341709 0.02153229 ## ExpiredSubscriptions -0.172964061 0.52463435 0.07911823 ## RequestedCancellations -0.026789151 0.14970367 - 0.05848516 ## NoPayCancellations -0.130452261 0.08318335 - 0.08981382 ## PaidComplaints -0.002817095 0.06075209

0.01085790 ## NumberGiftDonations -0.028654297 0.25177136 0.01450155 ## MonthsSince1stOrder 0.212289817 0.41853369 0.06852579 ## MonthsSinceLastOrder 0.516050131 0.19483205 0.19952437 ## MonthsSinceExpire 0.492935011 0.06633764 0.17184874 ## TotalPaidOrders MonthsSinceLastPayment UnpaidMagazines ## CustomerID -0.303736273 -0.070759403 - 0.1310206305 ## Age 0.215415289 0.086016011 0.1049512906 ## HomeOwner 0.078458311 0.034882415 0.0147397686 ## ResidenceLength 0.135570684 0.041855791 0.0517292733 ## HouseholdSize 0.026347482 0.004215917 0.0203203198 ## Child0.5 -0.047107492 -0.092767866 - 0.0083581255 ## Child6.12 -0.039079334 -0.033579363 - 0.0177757548 ## Child13.18 0.004875508 0.004558712 0.0009923008 ## Income 0.071452722 0.025079086 - 0.0277614901 ## HomeValue 0.055865523 0.041082648 - 0.0316811232 ## PaidDirectMailOrders 0.568670590 -0.032656047 0.2430078803 ## YearsSinceLastOrder -0.121126367 0.802019327 - 0.0889586911 ## TotalAmountPaid 0.803169774 -0.069385706 0.1608534908 ## DollarsPerIssue 0.114175113 0.125503880 - 0.1365999711 ## TotalPaidOrders 1.000000000 -0.124432154 0.2032664388 ## MonthsSinceLastPayment -0.124432154 1.000000000 - 0.0274413182 ## UnpaidMagazines 0.203266439 -0.027441318 1.0000000000 ## PaidCashMagazines 0.429429869 -0.355597336 0.0183616623 ## PaidReinstateMagazines 0.216457262 0.030804508 0.0863465734 ## PaidCreditMagazines 0.287891863 0.040434723

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0.1169881057 ## ActiveSubscriptions 0.296727064 -0.405548969 0.0454311197 ## ExpiredSubscriptions 0.540906500 -0.186656960 0.1185745913 ## RequestedCancellations 0.189368483 0.008052190 0.6938895193 ## NoPayCancellations 0.078034745 -0.065346222 0.5371785562 ## PaidComplaints 0.037268225 0.002264669 0.0381981070 ## NumberGiftDonations 0.467464741 -0.034190051 0.0576299965 ## MonthsSince1stOrder 0.524653629 0.276031741 0.1904710688 ## MonthsSinceLastOrder 0.138838982 0.639543254 0.0343095514 ## MonthsSinceExpire 0.058262987 0.606652741 0.0087976498 ## PaidCashMagazines PaidReinstateMagazines ## CustomerID 0.007089021 -0.102893176 ## Age -0.011300394 0.088667092 ## HomeOwner -0.008171712 0.023312217 ## ResidenceLength 0.028799743 0.045917412 ## HouseholdSize 0.042754793 0.017430056 ## Child0.5 0.084593565 -0.024192699 ## Child6.12 0.076855703 -0.024749405 ## Child13.18 0.048602944 0.006313367 ## Income 0.038717498 0.004852932 ## HomeValue -0.007679461 -0.005420643 ## PaidDirectMailOrders 0.074127577 0.204098510 ## YearsSinceLastOrder -0.304212500 0.006628856 ## TotalAmountPaid 0.449431075 0.214682590 ## DollarsPerIssue 0.165389925 0.018064037 ## TotalPaidOrders 0.429429869 0.216457262 ## MonthsSinceLastPayment -0.355597336 0.030804508 ## UnpaidMagazines 0.018361662 0.086346573 ## PaidCashMagazines 1.000000000 0.022220396 ## PaidReinstateMagazines 0.022220396 1.000000000 ## PaidCreditMagazines -0.266696683 0.074427994 ## ActiveSubscriptions 0.313042133 0.025665933 ## ExpiredSubscriptions 0.663567999 0.265031951 ## RequestedCancellations 0.041420583 0.078110196 ## NoPayCancellations 0.131819248 0.047551219 ## PaidComplaints 0.078276522 0.023763813 ## NumberGiftDonations 0.075252232 0.041036131 ## MonthsSince1stOrder 0.037350544 0.156120114 ## MonthsSinceLastOrder -0.096350331 0.079785269 ## MonthsSinceExpire -0.077266534 0.061292559 ## PaidCreditMagazines ActiveSubscriptions

## CustomerID -0.2462165819 -0.070547253 ## Age 0.1124618676 0.033548877 ## HomeOwner 0.0750424953 0.024733360 ## ResidenceLength 0.0609703643 0.034960442 ## HouseholdSize 0.0150132714 0.018555738 ## Child0.5 -0.0225916264 0.047920104 ## Child6.12 0.0006091551 0.026195458 ## Child13.18 0.0120672293 0.013835178 ## Income 0.0499879563 0.039900976 ## HomeValue 0.0426994625 0.016191760 ## PaidDirectMailOrders 0.5056581125 0.188494839 ## YearsSinceLastOrder 0.0193773615 -0.383731599 ## TotalAmountPaid 0.2534559364 0.283417087 ## DollarsPerIssue -0.0514404866 0.021532290 ## TotalPaidOrders 0.2878918631 0.296727064 ## MonthsSinceLastPayment 0.0404347234 -0.405548969 ## UnpaidMagazines 0.1169881057 0.045431120 ## PaidCashMagazines -0.2666966826 0.313042133 ## PaidReinstateMagazines 0.0744279940 0.025665933 ## PaidCreditMagazines 1.0000000000 0.089230774 ## ActiveSubscriptions 0.0892307741 1.000000000 ## ExpiredSubscriptions 0.3688690325 0.063966906 ## RequestedCancellations 0.1058490832 0.033085322 ## NoPayCancellations 0.0365556967 0.024005042 ## PaidComplaints 0.0209867235 -0.001860688 ## NumberGiftDonations 0.0944037478 0.099067648 ## MonthsSince1stOrder 0.2227152121 0.019560148 ## MonthsSinceLastOrder 0.2304269268 -0.046258478 ## MonthsSinceExpire 0.1381834719 -0.058883824 ## ExpiredSubscriptions RequestedCancellations ## CustomerID -0.13819788 -0.1230798800 ## Age 0.02618814 0.1034295256 ## HomeOwner 0.04748710 0.0349193468 ## ResidenceLength 0.06230617 0.0723883661 ## HouseholdSize 0.07032619 0.0220332762 ## Child0.5 0.09938472 -0.0313691059 ## Child6.12 0.13106384 -0.0314745964 ## Child13.18 0.09839541 0.0006810198 ## Income 0.08393687 0.0020240030 ## HomeValue 0.02986992 -0.0094040411 ## PaidDirectMailOrders 0.38437847 0.2030028205 ## YearsSinceLastOrder -0.17296406 -0.0267891512 ## TotalAmountPaid 0.52463435 0.1497036686 ## DollarsPerIssue 0.07911823 -0.0584851624 ## TotalPaidOrders 0.54090650 0.1893684834 ## MonthsSinceLastPayment -0.18665696 0.0080521895 ## UnpaidMagazines 0.11857459 0.6938895193 ## PaidCashMagazines 0.66356800 0.0414205832 ## PaidReinstateMagazines 0.26503195 0.0781101963 ## PaidCreditMagazines 0.36886903 0.1058490832

## ActiveSubscriptions 0.06396691 0.0330853219 ## ExpiredSubscriptions 1.00000000 0.0878935283 ## RequestedCancellations 0.08789353 1.0000000000 ## NoPayCancellations 0.06326952 0.0666686314 ## PaidComplaints 0.02494383 0.0313876003 ## NumberGiftDonations 0.10744018 0.0692829695 ## MonthsSince1stOrder 0.19692276 0.1994982691 ## MonthsSinceLastOrder 0.08819792 0.0596394475 ## MonthsSinceExpire 0.05195587 0.0390748950 ## NoPayCancellations PaidComplaints NumberGiftDonations ## CustomerID 0.012875588 -0.0143381268 - 0.102836157 ## Age -0.056832412 0.0197937976 0.079400745 ## HomeOwner -0.034690256 -0.0088002450 0.030516253 ## ResidenceLength -0.036311289 0.0046757412 0.041173141 ## HouseholdSize 0.036582495 0.0076825783 - 0.005189334 ## Child0.5 0.144432015 -0.0032221057 - 0.032610738 ## Child6.12 0.089105391 -0.0006952938 - 0.024736104 ## Child13.18 0.015501478 0.0096160881 - 0.015046038 ## Income -0.025614404 -0.0116996398 0.033828005 ## HomeValue -0.035441501 -0.0160626363 0.037970368 ## PaidDirectMailOrders 0.037553557 0.0205655551 0.177289533 ## YearsSinceLastOrder -0.130452261 -0.0028170951 - 0.028654297 ## TotalAmountPaid 0.083183347 0.0607520866 0.251771355 ## DollarsPerIssue -0.089813817 0.0108579028 0.014501550 ## TotalPaidOrders 0.078034745 0.0372682250 0.467464741 ## MonthsSinceLastPayment -0.065346222 0.0022646686 - 0.034190051 ## UnpaidMagazines 0.537178556 0.0381981070 0.057629996 ## PaidCashMagazines 0.131819248 0.0782765218 0.075252232 ## PaidReinstateMagazines 0.047551219 0.0237638133 0.041036131 ## PaidCreditMagazines 0.036555697 0.0209867235

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0.094403748 ## ActiveSubscriptions 0.024005042 -0.0018606876 0.099067648 ## ExpiredSubscriptions 0.063269515 0.0249438317 0.107440183 ## RequestedCancellations 0.066668631 0.0313876003 0.069282969 ## NoPayCancellations 1.000000000 0.0200078224 0.005201898 ## PaidComplaints 0.020007822 1.0000000000 0.010514209 ## NumberGiftDonations 0.005201898 0.0105142085 1.000000000 ## MonthsSince1stOrder 0.047294656 0.0469976908 0.182005485 ## MonthsSinceLastOrder 0.002155366 0.0162445397 0.036211801 ## MonthsSinceExpire -0.008135343 0.0117801411 0.016444106 ## MonthsSince1stOrder MonthsSinceLastOrder ## CustomerID -0.33784624 -0.170914747 ## Age 0.26128775 0.113500473 ## HomeOwner 0.12676542 0.092077141 ## ResidenceLength 0.18959222 0.100638812 ## HouseholdSize 0.06371763 0.050793217 ## Child0.5 -0.08586934 -0.037083769 ## Child6.12 -0.05173328 0.029035612 ## Child13.18 0.04061571 0.048695431 ## Income 0.09931181 0.110736620 ## HomeValue 0.07838683 0.093011743 ## PaidDirectMailOrders 0.40527016 0.168456302 ## YearsSinceLastOrder 0.21228982 0.516050131 ## TotalAmountPaid 0.41853369 0.194832047 ## DollarsPerIssue 0.06852579 0.199524367 ## TotalPaidOrders 0.52465363 0.138838982 ## MonthsSinceLastPayment 0.27603174 0.639543254 ## UnpaidMagazines 0.19047107 0.034309551 ## PaidCashMagazines 0.03735054 -0.096350331 ## PaidReinstateMagazines 0.15612011 0.079785269 ## PaidCreditMagazines 0.22271521 0.230426927 ## ActiveSubscriptions 0.01956015 -0.046258478 ## ExpiredSubscriptions 0.19692276 0.088197915 ## RequestedCancellations 0.19949827 0.059639447 ## NoPayCancellations 0.04729466 0.002155366 ## PaidComplaints 0.04699769 0.016244540 ## NumberGiftDonations 0.18200548 0.036211801 ## MonthsSince1stOrder 1.00000000 0.431466834 ## MonthsSinceLastOrder 0.43146683 1.000000000 ## MonthsSinceExpire 0.35847313 0.921104469 ## MonthsSinceExpire

## CustomerID -0.096321354 ## Age 0.081802277 ## HomeOwner 0.085549745 ## ResidenceLength 0.088595649 ## HouseholdSize 0.049464752 ## Child0.5 -0.030493769 ## Child6.12 0.033389443 ## Child13.18 0.050375585 ## Income 0.111375108 ## HomeValue 0.091931279 ## PaidDirectMailOrders 0.032911183 ## YearsSinceLastOrder 0.492935011 ## TotalAmountPaid 0.066337644 ## DollarsPerIssue 0.171848735 ## TotalPaidOrders 0.058262987 ## MonthsSinceLastPayment 0.606652741 ## UnpaidMagazines 0.008797650 ## PaidCashMagazines -0.077266534 ## PaidReinstateMagazines 0.061292559 ## PaidCreditMagazines 0.138183472 ## ActiveSubscriptions -0.058883824 ## ExpiredSubscriptions 0.051955873 ## RequestedCancellations 0.039074895 ## NoPayCancellations -0.008135343 ## PaidComplaints 0.011780141 ## NumberGiftDonations 0.016444106 ## MonthsSince1stOrder 0.358473131 ## MonthsSinceLastOrder 0.921104469 ## MonthsSinceExpire 1.000000000 #finding and removing variables with high coreltion high_cor <- findCorrelation (corr_matrix, cutoff = 0.75 ) greydata <- greydata %>% select ( - CustomerID,) greydata <- greydata %>% select ( - c ( "ExpiredSubscriptions" , "PaidDirectMailOrders" )) #Q1.2 split the data into training and testing sets (70% for training set) set.seed ( 123 ) train_indices <- sample ( nrow (greydata), 0.7 * nrow (greydata)) train <- greydata[train_indices, ] test <- greydata[ - train_indices, ] # Convert 'Renewal' to a factor train $ Renewal <- as.factor (train $ Renewal) # random forest model set.seed ( 123 ) rand_model <- randomForest (Renewal ~ ., data = train, ntree = 100 )

# Predictions on test set pred <- predict (rand_model, newdata = test) # Converting Renewal in the test set to a factor test $ Renewal <- as.factor (test $ Renewal) # Convert predictions to a factor with the same levels as test$Renewal pred <- factor (pred, levels = levels (test $ Renewal)) # confusion matrix confusionMatrix (pred, test $ Renewal) ## Confusion Matrix and Statistics ## ## Reference ## Prediction No Yes ## No 12333 159 ## Yes 22 110 ## ## Accuracy : 0.9857 ## 95% CI : (0.9834, 0.9877) ## No Information Rate : 0.9787 ## P-Value [Acc > NIR] : 5.45e-09 ## ## Kappa : 0.5422 ## ## Mcnemar's Test P-Value : < 2.2e-16 ## ## Sensitivity : 0.9982 ## Specificity : 0.4089 ## Pos Pred Value : 0.9873 ## Neg Pred Value : 0.8333 ## Prevalence : 0.9787 ## Detection Rate : 0.9769 ## Detection Prevalence : 0.9895 ## Balanced Accuracy : 0.7036 ## ## 'Positive' Class : No ## # logistic regression model log_model <- glm (Renewal ~ ., data = train, family = binomial) ## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred summary (log_model) ## ## Call: ## glm(formula = Renewal ~ ., family = binomial, data = train)

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## ## Coefficients: ## Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) ## (Intercept) -8.185e+00 6.210e-01 -13.180 < 2e-16 *** ## Age -7.303e-04 4.400e-03 -0.166 0.868163 ## HomeOwner 4.983e-03 2.112e-03 2.359 0.018327 * ## ResidenceLength -3.105e-03 9.840e-03 -0.316 0.752325 ## DwellingTypeS -1.386e-01 1.689e-01 -0.821 0.411914 ## DwellingTypeU -1.113e+01 1.600e+03 -0.007 0.994451 ## GenderM 2.366e-01 1.142e-01 2.073 0.038186 * ## GenderU 2.707e-01 5.389e-01 0.502 0.615427 ## MaritalS -1.179e-01 1.306e-01 -0.903 0.366526 ## MaritalU -1.292e+01 6.913e+02 -0.019 0.985089 ## HouseholdSize 6.271e-02 3.389e-02 1.850 0.064258 . ## ChildPresentU -1.381e-01 2.601e-01 -0.531 0.595473 ## ChildPresentY -3.327e-01 1.473e-01 -2.259 0.023911 * ## Child0.5 7.318e-04 1.403e-03 0.521 0.602070 ## Child6.12 1.766e-02 1.523e-03 11.599 < 2e-16 *** ## Child13.18 6.585e-03 1.561e-03 4.218 2.46e-05 *** ## Income 3.630e-06 5.684e-07 6.387 1.70e-10 *** ## OccupationH 1.109e-01 2.151e-01 0.516 0.606194 ## OccupationM 1.708e-01 1.747e-01 0.977 0.328395 ## OccupationR 3.968e-01 2.172e-01 1.827 0.067761 . ## OccupationU 4.650e-02 1.929e-01 0.241 0.809491 ## OccupationW 3.242e-02 1.677e-01 0.193 0.846691 ## HomeValue 8.614e-03 2.216e-02 0.389 0.697472 ## MagazineStatusB 1.224e-01 3.932e-01 0.311 0.755486 ## MagazineStatusC -6.764e-01 4.687e-01 -1.443 0.148970 ## MagazineStatusE -1.043e-02 3.137e-01 -0.033 0.973489 ## MagazineStatusO -7.738e-02 3.440e-01 -0.225 0.822058 ## MagazineStatusS -6.936e-02 8.265e-01 -0.084 0.933127 ## YearsSinceLastOrder -3.937e-02 2.435e-02 -1.617 0.105953 ## TotalAmountPaid 3.817e-04 9.745e-04 0.392 0.695285 ## DollarsPerIssue 1.900e+00 9.476e-02 20.046 < 2e-16 *** ## TotalPaidOrders -1.548e-02 1.700e-02 -0.911 0.362391 ## MonthsSinceLastPayment 5.627e-03 2.746e-03 2.049 0.040473 * ## LastPaymentType1 6.584e-02 3.651e-01 0.180 0.856897 ## LastPaymentType2 2.498e-01 4.219e-01 0.592 0.553829 ## LastPaymentType3 1.823e-01 5.109e-01 0.357 0.721231 ## LastPaymentType4 1.399e-01 6.751e-01 0.207 0.835826 ## LastPaymentType5 1.146e+00 5.725e-01 2.001 0.045347 * ## LastPaymentType6 1.154e+00 6.849e-01 1.685 0.091994 . ## LastPaymentType7 -1.302e+01 4.427e+02 -0.029 0.976531 ## LastPaymentType8 -1.287e+01 5.863e+02 -0.022 0.982483 ## LastPaymentType9 -1.306e+01 9.640e+02 -0.014 0.989191 ## LastPaymentTypeA 4.158e-01 3.268e-01 1.272 0.203287 ## LastPaymentTypeE 1.382e+00 8.765e-01 1.577 0.114789 ## LastPaymentTypeF 3.721e-02 4.681e-01 0.080 0.936629 ## LastPaymentTypeG -1.323e+01 5.467e+02 -0.024 0.980694 ## LastPaymentTypeI 4.223e-01 6.889e-01 0.613 0.539843

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## LastPaymentTypeK 1.542e+00 7.099e-01 2.172 0.029871 * ## LastPaymentTypeL 1.028e+00 4.622e-01 2.223 0.026198 * ## LastPaymentTypeM -3.471e-01 7.851e-01 -0.442 0.658401 ## LastPaymentTypeS 1.386e+00 4.152e-01 3.337 0.000847 *** ## LastPaymentTypeU -1.107e+01 1.047e+03 -0.011 0.991566 ## UnpaidMagazines 4.113e-01 1.486e-01 2.767 0.005652 ** ## PaidCashMagazines 3.877e-02 4.950e-02 0.783 0.433415 ## PaidReinstateMagazines 9.617e-03 1.606e-01 0.060 0.952256 ## PaidCreditMagazines -2.119e-02 7.326e-02 -0.289 0.772417 ## ActiveSubscriptions 1.359e-01 2.433e-01 0.559 0.576447 ## RequestedCancellations -3.199e-01 1.765e-01 -1.813 0.069887 . ## NoPayCancellations -3.473e-01 1.475e-01 -2.354 0.018556 * ## PaidComplaints 1.720e-01 3.899e-01 0.441 0.659203 ## GiftDonorY 9.697e-02 1.499e-01 0.647 0.517655 ## NumberGiftDonations 7.183e-03 2.410e-02 0.298 0.765669 ## MonthsSince1stOrder 8.200e-03 5.260e-04 15.589 < 2e-16 *** ## MonthsSinceLastOrder -1.575e-02 3.786e-03 -4.161 3.17e-05 *** ## MonthsSinceExpire -3.692e-03 3.998e-03 -0.924 0.355691 ## --- ## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 ## ## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1) ## ## Null deviance: 6052.6 on 29452 degrees of freedom ## Residual deviance: 4761.3 on 29388 degrees of freedom ## AIC: 4891.3 ## ## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 16 # converting renewal to 0 & 1 train $ Renewal <- ifelse (train $ Renewal == "Yes" , 1 , 0 ) # training a logistic regression model log_model <- glm (Renewal ~ ., data = train, family = binomial) ## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred summary (log_model) ## ## Call: ## glm(formula = Renewal ~ ., family = binomial, data = train) ## ## Coefficients: ## Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) ## (Intercept) -8.185e+00 6.210e-01 -13.180 < 2e-16 *** ## Age -7.303e-04 4.400e-03 -0.166 0.868163 ## HomeOwner 4.983e-03 2.112e-03 2.359 0.018327 * ## ResidenceLength -3.105e-03 9.840e-03 -0.316 0.752325 ## DwellingTypeS -1.386e-01 1.689e-01 -0.821 0.411914

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## DwellingTypeU -1.113e+01 1.600e+03 -0.007 0.994451 ## GenderM 2.366e-01 1.142e-01 2.073 0.038186 * ## GenderU 2.707e-01 5.389e-01 0.502 0.615427 ## MaritalS -1.179e-01 1.306e-01 -0.903 0.366526 ## MaritalU -1.292e+01 6.913e+02 -0.019 0.985089 ## HouseholdSize 6.271e-02 3.389e-02 1.850 0.064258 . ## ChildPresentU -1.381e-01 2.601e-01 -0.531 0.595473 ## ChildPresentY -3.327e-01 1.473e-01 -2.259 0.023911 * ## Child0.5 7.318e-04 1.403e-03 0.521 0.602070 ## Child6.12 1.766e-02 1.523e-03 11.599 < 2e-16 *** ## Child13.18 6.585e-03 1.561e-03 4.218 2.46e-05 *** ## Income 3.630e-06 5.684e-07 6.387 1.70e-10 *** ## OccupationH 1.109e-01 2.151e-01 0.516 0.606194 ## OccupationM 1.708e-01 1.747e-01 0.977 0.328395 ## OccupationR 3.968e-01 2.172e-01 1.827 0.067761 . ## OccupationU 4.650e-02 1.929e-01 0.241 0.809491 ## OccupationW 3.242e-02 1.677e-01 0.193 0.846691 ## HomeValue 8.614e-03 2.216e-02 0.389 0.697472 ## MagazineStatusB 1.224e-01 3.932e-01 0.311 0.755486 ## MagazineStatusC -6.764e-01 4.687e-01 -1.443 0.148970 ## MagazineStatusE -1.043e-02 3.137e-01 -0.033 0.973489 ## MagazineStatusO -7.738e-02 3.440e-01 -0.225 0.822058 ## MagazineStatusS -6.936e-02 8.265e-01 -0.084 0.933127 ## YearsSinceLastOrder -3.937e-02 2.435e-02 -1.617 0.105953 ## TotalAmountPaid 3.817e-04 9.745e-04 0.392 0.695285 ## DollarsPerIssue 1.900e+00 9.476e-02 20.046 < 2e-16 *** ## TotalPaidOrders -1.548e-02 1.700e-02 -0.911 0.362391 ## MonthsSinceLastPayment 5.627e-03 2.746e-03 2.049 0.040473 * ## LastPaymentType1 6.584e-02 3.651e-01 0.180 0.856897 ## LastPaymentType2 2.498e-01 4.219e-01 0.592 0.553829 ## LastPaymentType3 1.823e-01 5.109e-01 0.357 0.721231 ## LastPaymentType4 1.399e-01 6.751e-01 0.207 0.835826 ## LastPaymentType5 1.146e+00 5.725e-01 2.001 0.045347 * ## LastPaymentType6 1.154e+00 6.849e-01 1.685 0.091994 . ## LastPaymentType7 -1.302e+01 4.427e+02 -0.029 0.976531 ## LastPaymentType8 -1.287e+01 5.863e+02 -0.022 0.982483 ## LastPaymentType9 -1.306e+01 9.640e+02 -0.014 0.989191 ## LastPaymentTypeA 4.158e-01 3.268e-01 1.272 0.203287 ## LastPaymentTypeE 1.382e+00 8.765e-01 1.577 0.114789 ## LastPaymentTypeF 3.721e-02 4.681e-01 0.080 0.936629 ## LastPaymentTypeG -1.323e+01 5.467e+02 -0.024 0.980694 ## LastPaymentTypeI 4.223e-01 6.889e-01 0.613 0.539843 ## LastPaymentTypeK 1.542e+00 7.099e-01 2.172 0.029871 * ## LastPaymentTypeL 1.028e+00 4.622e-01 2.223 0.026198 * ## LastPaymentTypeM -3.471e-01 7.851e-01 -0.442 0.658401 ## LastPaymentTypeS 1.386e+00 4.152e-01 3.337 0.000847 *** ## LastPaymentTypeU -1.107e+01 1.047e+03 -0.011 0.991566 ## UnpaidMagazines 4.113e-01 1.486e-01 2.767 0.005652 ** ## PaidCashMagazines 3.877e-02 4.950e-02 0.783 0.433415 ## PaidReinstateMagazines 9.617e-03 1.606e-01 0.060 0.952256

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## PaidCreditMagazines -2.119e-02 7.326e-02 -0.289 0.772417 ## ActiveSubscriptions 1.359e-01 2.433e-01 0.559 0.576447 ## RequestedCancellations -3.199e-01 1.765e-01 -1.813 0.069887 . ## NoPayCancellations -3.473e-01 1.475e-01 -2.354 0.018556 * ## PaidComplaints 1.720e-01 3.899e-01 0.441 0.659203 ## GiftDonorY 9.697e-02 1.499e-01 0.647 0.517655 ## NumberGiftDonations 7.183e-03 2.410e-02 0.298 0.765669 ## MonthsSince1stOrder 8.200e-03 5.260e-04 15.589 < 2e-16 *** ## MonthsSinceLastOrder -1.575e-02 3.786e-03 -4.161 3.17e-05 *** ## MonthsSinceExpire -3.692e-03 3.998e-03 -0.924 0.355691 ## --- ## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 ## ## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1) ## ## Null deviance: 6052.6 on 29452 degrees of freedom ## Residual deviance: 4761.3 on 29388 degrees of freedom ## AIC: 4891.3 ## ## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 16 # Prediction on the test dataset pred <- predict (log_model, newdata = test, type = "response" ) # Converting probabilities to class labels (0 or 1) predicted_classes <- ifelse (pred > 0.5 , 1 , 0 ) # Confusion matrix conf_matrix <- table ( Actual = test $ Renewal, Predicted = predicted_classes) print ( "Confusion Matrix:" ) ## [1] "Confusion Matrix:" print (conf_matrix) ## Predicted ## Actual 0 1 ## No 12344 11 ## Yes 262 7 # evaluating accuracy accuracy <- sum ( diag (conf_matrix)) / sum (conf_matrix) print ( paste ( "Accuracy:" , accuracy)) ## [1] "Accuracy: 0.978374524714829" # Calculate precision precision <- conf_matrix[ 2 , 2 ] / sum (conf_matrix[, 2 ]) print ( paste ( "Precision:" , precision)) ## [1] "Precision: 0.388888888888889"

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#Q1.3 ROC curve and AUC-ROC roc_curve <- roc (test $ Renewal, pred) ## Setting levels: control = No, case = Yes ## Setting direction: controls < cases print ( "ROC Curve:" ) ## [1] "ROC Curve:" print (roc_curve) ## ## Call: ## roc.default(response = test$Renewal, predictor = pred) ## ## Data: pred in 12355 controls (test$Renewal No) < 269 cases (test$Renewal Yes). ## Area under the curve: 0.8317 print ( paste ( "AUC-ROC:" , auc (roc_curve))) ## [1] "AUC-ROC: 0.83166756682348" ##model has approx 97% accuaracy and roc curve is approx .83 which indicates that predicted renewal rate is 97% of the test set and AUC suggests that the model has a good ability to discriminate between positive and negative outcomes. library (binom) ## Warning: package 'binom' was built under R version 4.3.2 file_path <- "C:/Users/Rishabh Arora/Downloads/professional.xlsx" professional <- readxl :: read_excel (file_path) ## New names: ## • `` -> `...9` ## • `` -> `...10` #Q2.1 descriptive stats summary (professional) ## Age Gender Real Estate Purchases? ## Min. :19.00 Length:410 Length:410 ## 1st Qu.:28.00 Class :character Class :character ## Median :30.00 Mode :character Mode :character ## Mean :30.11 ## 3rd Qu.:33.00 ## Max. :42.00 ## Value of Investments ($) Number of Transactions Broadband Access? ## Min. : 0 Min. : 0.000 Length:410

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## 1st Qu.: 18300 1st Qu.: 4.000 Class :character ## Median : 24800 Median : 6.000 Mode :character ## Mean : 28538 Mean : 5.973 ## 3rd Qu.: 34275 3rd Qu.: 7.000 ## Max. :133400 Max. :21.000 ## Household Income ($) Have Children? ...9 ...10 ## Min. : 16200 Length:410 Mode:logical Length:410 ## 1st Qu.: 51625 Class :character NA's:410 Class :character ## Median : 66050 Mode :character Mode :character ## Mean : 74460 ## 3rd Qu.: 88775 ## Max. :322500 #Q2.2 95% confidence interval for mean age of subscribers ageci95 <- t.test (professional $ Age) $ conf.int ##95% confidence interval for mean household income of subscribers incomeci95 <- t.test (professional $ ` Household Income ($) ` ) $ conf.int cat ( "95% Confidence Interval for Mean Age of Subscribers:" , ageci95, " \n " ) ## 95% Confidence Interval for Mean Age of Subscribers: 29.72153 30.50286 cat ( "95% Confidence Interval for Mean Income of Subscribers:" , incomeci95, " \n " ) ## 95% Confidence Interval for Mean Income of Subscribers: 71079.26 77839.77 #count of subscriber having broadband count_broadband <- table (professional $ ` Broadband Access? ` ) print (count_broadband) ## ## No Yes ## 154 256 #count of subscriber having children count_children <- table (professional $ ` Have Children? ` ) print (count_children)

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## ## No Yes ## 191 219 professional $ ` Broadband Access? ` <- as.factor (professional $ ` Broadband Access? ` ) professional $ ` Have Children? ` <- as.factor (professional $ ` Have Children? ` ) # Calculate proportions prop_broadband <- sum (professional $ ` Broadband Access? ` == "Yes" ) / nrow (professional) prop_children <- sum (professional $ ` Have Children? ` == "Yes" ) / nrow (professional) #Q2.3 Calculate 95% confidence intervals broadbandci95 <- binom.confint ( sum (professional $ ` Broadband Access? ` == "Yes" ), nrow (professional), conf.level = 0.95 , methods = "wilson" ) childrenci95 <- binom.confint ( sum (professional $ ` Have Children? ` == "Yes" ), nrow (professional), conf.level = 0.95 , methods = "wilson" ) print ( paste ( "95% CI for broadband: [" , broadbandci95 $ lower, "," , broadbandci95 $ upper, "]" )) ## [1] "95% CI for broadband: [ 0.576563157172795 , 0.6699080404947 ]" print ( paste ( "95% CI for children: [" , childrenci95 $ lower, "," , childrenci95 $ upper, "]" )) ## [1] "95% CI for children: [ 0.485768090246438 , 0.581890669897581 ]" #Q2.4 Would Young Professional be a good advertising outlet for online brokers? broadband_realest <- professional[professional $ ` Broadband Access? ` == "Yes" & professional $ ` Real Estate Purchases? ` == "Yes" , ] # Count the number of such subscribers count <- nrow (broadband_realest) print ( paste ( "Number of subscribers who have broadband access and are planning a real estate purchase:" , count)) ## [1] "Number of subscribers who have broadband access and are planning a real estate purchase: 115" ## from the above result we can see only 115 subscribers out of 410 have access to internet and planning a real estate which is around 28%, i.e very small, hence this magazine will not be be a good advertising outlet for online brokers. #Q2.5 Would this magazine be a good place to advertise for companies

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selling educational software and computer games for young children? print (count_children) ## ## No Yes ## 191 219 ## result shows that around 53% of subscribers have children, hence this magazine be a good place to advertise for companies selling educational software and computer games for young children ## Telecom companies can also publish articles as 38% subscribers still don't have broadband at their homes which is a necessity in today's world. ##Q2.6 Descriptive statistics show that average age of subscribers is 30 and they are investing 38% of their total income on an average which is a very good number, So I believe advertisements and articles from investment brokers and mutual fund companies providing financial literacy would excite the subscribers most.

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Assignment_2_Rishabh_arora

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