Question 4 Harry Hotfoods 10-5-23

1. Apply simple exponential smoothing to sales from weeks 1 to 5 as a prediction of week 6 sa Smoothing Constant 0.4 Smoothed Values α(At)+(1-α)St-1 Here, F2=S1 For week 6, Forecast(Ft+1) = αAt+ (1-α) Ft Here is the result to be considered (Ft+1) = αAt+ (1-α) Ft = 0.4*203+ (1-0.4)172.4 184.6 184.6 t Period Actual Sales Smoothed VaForecast Error Week 1 67 67 Week 2 95 78.2 67 28 Week 3 245 144.92 78 167 Week 4 163 152.15 145 18 Week 5 203 172.49 152 51 ? _ ? ? _ ? ? _ ? ? _ ?−? _ ? 1 2 3 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 BANAPPLE Sales Forecast Actual Sales Smoothed Value Fore

2. Apply a trend adjustment with a β of 0.3 to predict week 6 sales. Does this pro Here, we have, St= αAt+ (1-α) St-1 Tt= β(St-St-1) +(1- β) Tt-1 To calculate the 6th week sales forecast, using formul Tt+1= β (Ft+1) +(1- β) Tt = 0.3*191+ (1-0.3)18.58 70.32816 Period Actual Sales Smothed Val Smoothed TrForecast t Week 1 67 67 0 Week 2 95 78.2 3.36 82 Week 3 245 144.92 22.37 167 Week 4 163 152.15 17.83 170 Week 5 203 172.49 18.58 191 ? _ ? ? _ ? ? _ ? ? _ ? Ft=St + Tt

ovide a better prediction compared to the method used in task 1? Justify your answer la Error 16.8 100.08 10.85 30.51 ? _ ?−? _ ?

othing constant.