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SPED 557 Progress Monitoring
Cheat Sheet for Finding the Median, Calculating Aimlines, Change Lines, and Trend lines, and for Using Decision Rules
Medians
Finding the median is finding the “middle” number. It is not the average
of a group of numbers. With CBM, you never have to add data points and divide by the number of data points.
Put the data points in ascending order first. Then take the median/middle number. For example, data points 55, 58, 52 would be 52, 55, 58 in ascending order with 55 being the median (middle number).
When calculating the medians for trend lines, if you have an even number of data points, the median is halfway between the two middle points. For example, data points 56, 58, 53, 57 would first be put in ascending order (53, 56, 57, 58). The median would be halfway between the two middle points of 56 and 57 which would be 56.5. Another example would be data points 87, 81, 80, 89, 90, 82. The ascending order would be: 80, 81, 82, 87, 89, 90. The “middle” (median) point would be halfway between 82 and 87 which would be 84.5. If the data points were 80, 81, 82, 88, 89, 90, then the median would be 85 (halfway between 82 and 88).
Rule of Thumb
: If there are an odd
number of data points, take the middle number. This number will always be one of the actual data points. If there are an even
number of data points, calculate halfway between the two middle data points. This number will never be one of the actual data points.
Aimlines
Aimlines always begin at the baseline point. The baseline point is always the median of three points. If it is the first review period, the baseline is the median of the probes given at the student’s instructional level (in the case of reading, this is nine probes). If it is a review period beyond the first review period, then the new baseline for
the beginning of the new aimline is the median of the last three points in the previous review period or right before the change line in the case of raising the goal.
The ending point of the aimline is the goal for that review period. The best way to determine this goal is to use the rate of improvement (ROI)
for the student’s grade level
(not instructional level) and multiply the ROI by the number of weeks in the review period. This number is then rounded to the nearest whole number and then added to the student’s baseline for that review period. Do not
round the ROI before multiplying times the number of weeks in the review period! Note that
we use the student’s grade level for determining goals since we want
to compare the student to the rate at which at his/her peers are expected to make progress.
Rule of Thumb
: Determine goals and use the ROI at the student’s grade level and monitor progress at the student’s instructional level. For example, a student in 4
th
grade who has an instructional level at 2
nd
grade would have his goal set using the ROI for 4
th
graders, but would be progress monitored in probes at the second grade level.
Since the aimline is the first thing you draw on a graph (in real life you want to see where the students is expected to get to before you begin collecting data), the first aimline has to go all the way across the graph
and end just after the last date on the graph. You don’t know if you are going to need a change (i.e., raising the goal) when you start the review period, so that first aimline must be drawn across the entire graph.
Change Lines
A change line indicates that the four point rule has occurred and a change needs to take place. The change line is a dotted vertical line that indicates where the change has been made.
The change line must go between two data points and after the fourth data point in the consecutive points of the four point rule. The change line should never be drawn right on a data point!
A change line can only be drawn AFTER there are BOTH six data points and three weeks of instruction. Once this point has occurred, then you
can begin looking for four consecutive points either below or above the
aimline.
Trend lines
The purpose of a trend line is to see 1) if implementing the four point rule and making a change was correct (confirms or disconfirms this), or
2) if the student is making progress above or below his aimline/goal in a review period.
In the case of #1 above, the change line is drawn on the points from the beginning of the review period up to the change line or from the change line to the next change line or end of the review period. For example, if you had three weeks of instruction and six date points and the next four points were below the aimline, you would draw a change line. The trend line would then be drawn on the ten data points from the beginning of the review period up to the change line.
In the case of #2 above, if no change is made during a review period, you would draw the trend line across the entire graph using all of the data points. For example, if you had nine weeks in the review period and progress monitored two times a week, and the four point rule did not kick in, you would draw the trend line on all 18 points of data.
For the example given in the second bullet (case #1), you would divide
the ten data points into three groups. Groups one and three must be
equal and the groups must be as close as possible, so the groups would be 3 data points, 4 data points, 3 data points. The middle group
would be ignored. Since you have an odd number of data points in groups one and three, the medians are easy since they will be the middle data point and the middle date.
For the example given in the third bullet (case #2), the 18 points would be divided into three groups of six data points. With an even number of points in groups one and three (group two is ignored), the medians are more difficult to calculate. They are halfway between the two middle numbers/dates which in this case would be data points three and four. So if data point three was 55 on November 15 and data point four was 56 on November 18, the median data point would be 55.5 (halfway between 55 and 56) and the median date would be stated as “halfway between November 15 and November 18” (do not guess at a date in between).
In the case of an even number of data points, if the two middle data points are the same, then the median is that data point. For example, if there are six data points and data points three and four are both 56, then the median is 56.
Decision Rules
You must
have at least three weeks
and six data points
before a decision rule can be applied.
Once you have three weeks and six data points, you can apply a decision rule beginning with the first data point AFTER the three weeks
and six data points. The data points in the three weeks/six data points CANNOT count as part of the decision rule.
Four Point Rule: The most common, and easiest, decision rule is the four point rule. The four point rule states that if you have four consecutive data points below or above the aimline, you need to make a change. Note that the four points must come AFTER the three weeks/six data points. If the four points are below the aimline, a new or additional intervention is needed. If the four points are above the aimline, the student’s goal needs to be raised. Rule of Thumb: The points in the four point rule should be significantly away from the aimline to be counted. Points on, touching, or near the aimline are not considered to be “away from” the aimline.
Changing the Intervention:
If the four points are below the aimline, a change in intervention is required and a “change line” is added on the student’s graph. The “change line” is a dotted, vertical line and is placed AFTER the fourth consecutive data point and BEFORE the next data point (never on a data point, but
always between two data points). For example, if you have three
weeks/six data points and then data points 7, 8, 9, and 10 are
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below the aimline, you would draw a change line between data points 10 and 11.
Raising the Goal:
If the four points are above the aimline, the student’s goal should be raised and a change line is added on the student’s graph (as described above). The raised goal is demonstrated with a revised/new aimline that begins on the change line at the student’s new baseline and ends at the end of the graph. The new baseline is determined by taking the median
of the last three data points just before the change line. The same ROI that was used to determine the original aimline can be used to determine the ending point of the aimline OR the ROI can
be increased if there is reason to believe it should be increased (based on good teacher judgment). Note that whenever the goal
is raised on a graph there will be two aimlines: the original one that will go across the entire graph and the revised one that will go from the change line to the end of the graph.
Trend line Rule: A trend line is drawn to verify if the decision to change the intervention or raise the goal was the correct thing to do. Therefore, once the four point rule “kicks in,” a trend line can be drawn
on the points from the beginning of the graph up to the change line. If the trend line is in line with or close to the aimline, a change was NOT needed. If the trend line goes significantly above the aimline, the goal should have been raised and if the trend line goes significantly below the aimline, then a change of intervention was needed.
Example #1
: If the four point rule “kicked in” after data point #10, the trend line would be drawn on 10 data points (see the trend line section for how to draw the trend line).
Example #2
: If the four point rule “kicked in” after data point #15, the trend line would be drawn on 15 data points.
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