Operations Management: Processes and Supply Chains (11th Edition)
11th Edition
ISBN: 9780133872132
Author: Lee J. Krajewski, Manoj K. Malhotra, Larry P. Ritzman
Publisher: PEARSON
expand_more
expand_more
format_list_bulleted
Concept explainers
Question
Chapter A, Problem 24P
a
Summary Introduction
Interpretation: Decision tree
Concept Introduction: Decision tree is a pictorial representation showing attributes of an outcome. It extends from nodes to different branches showing a series of probability.
b
Summary Introduction
Interpretation:Activity of management to achieve the highest payoff.
Concept Introduction: Probability of an event is how likely or how possibly an event take place. It shows an outcome of event which ranges between 0 and 1.
Expert Solution & Answer
Want to see the full answer?
Check out a sample textbook solutionStudents have asked these similar questions
A firm must decide whether to construct a small, medium, or large stamping plant. A consultant’sreport indicates a .20 probability that demand will be low and an .80 probability that demand willbe high.If the firm builds a small facility and demand turns out to be low, the net present value will be$42 million. If demand turns out to be high, the firm can either subcontract and realize the net present value of $42 million or expand greatly for a net present value of $48 million.The firm could build a medium-size facility as a hedge: If demand turns out to be low, its netpresent value is estimated at $22 million; if demand turns out to be high, the firm could do nothingand realize a net present value of $46 million, or it could expand and realize a net present value of$50 million.If the firm builds a large facility and demand is low, the net present value will be – $20 million,whereas high demand will result in a net present value of $72 million.a. Analyze this problem using a decision…
A5
The owner of a small business is considering three options: buying a computer,
leasing a computer, or getting along without a computer. Based on the information
obtained from the firm's accountant, the following payoff table (in terms of net.
profit) was developed:
State of Nature
State # 1
State # 2
State # 3
Alternative
(S1)
(S2)
(S3)
A1
6.
A2
АЗ
4
Based on the probability for each state of nature in previous question(the
probability for S1 to happen equals the probability of S2; the probability for S2 to
happen is three times of S3). What is the EVPI?
O 5.29
O Can't be computed with the given information
O 114
O 642
Chapter A Solutions
Operations Management: Processes and Supply Chains (11th Edition)
Ch. A - Mary Williams, owner of Williams Products, is...Ch. A - Prob. 2PCh. A - An interactive television service that costs $10...Ch. A - A restaurant is considering adding fresh brook...Ch. A - Spartan Castings must implement a manufacturing...Ch. A - A news clipping service is considering...Ch. A - Prob. 7PCh. A - Techno Corporation is currently manufacturing an...Ch. A - The Tri-County Generation and Transmission...Ch. A - Prob. 10P
Ch. A - Tri-County G&T sells 150,000 MWh per year of...Ch. A - The Forsite Company is screening three ideas for...Ch. A - Prob. 13PCh. A - Prob. 14PCh. A - Prob. 15PCh. A - Build-Rite Construction has received favorable...Ch. A - Prob. 17PCh. A - Prob. 18PCh. A - Prob. 19PCh. A - Prob. 20PCh. A - Prob. 21PCh. A - Prob. 22PCh. A - Prob. 23PCh. A - Prob. 24P
Knowledge Booster
Learn more about
Need a deep-dive on the concept behind this application? Look no further. Learn more about this topic, operations-management and related others by exploring similar questions and additional content below.Similar questions
- An oil company must decide whether or not to drill an oil well in a particular area that they already own. The decision maker (DM) believes that the area could be dry, reasonably good or a bonanza. See data in the table which shows the gross revenues for the oil well that is found. Decision Drill $0 Abandon $0 Probability 0.3 Dry (D) Seismic Results No structure(N) Open(0) Closed (C) Drilling costs 40M. The company can take a series of seismic soundings (at a cost of 12M) to determine the underlying geological structure. The results will be either "no structure", "open structure or "closed structure". The reliability of the testing company is as follows that is, this reflects their historical performance. Reasonably good(G) $85 $0 0.3 Note that if the test result is "no structure" the company can sell the land to a developer for 50 m. otherwise (for the other results) it can abandon the drilling idea at no benefit to itself. Dry(d) 0.7 0.2 Bonanza(B) 0.1 $200 m SO 0.4 Conditional…arrow_forward11. Bakery Products is considering the introduction of a new line of pastries. In order to produce the new line, the bakery is considering either a major or a minor renovation of its current plant. Bill Wicker, head of operations, has developed the following conditional values table: Alternatives Favorable Market Unfavorable Market Major renovation $100,000 -$90,000Minor renovation $40,000 -$20,000 Do nothing $0 $0 Assume that the probability of a favorable market is equal to the probability of an unfavorable market.Part 2a) Choose the appropriate decision tree showing payoffs and probabilities.A.MinorFavorable40,000Unfavorable-20,000UnfavorableFavorableMajor100,000-90,000Do…arrow_forwardA manager is going to purchase new processing equipment and must decide on the number ofspare parts to order with the new equipment. The spares cost $200 each, and any unused spareswill have an expected salvage value of $50 each. The probability of usage can be described by thisdistribution:Number 0 1 2 3Probability .10 .50 .25 .15If a part fails and a spare is not available, two days will be needed to obtain a replacementand install it. The cost for idle equipment is $500 per day. What quantity of spares should beordered?a. Use the ratio method.b. Use the tabular method (see Table 13.3).arrow_forward
- Howard Weiss, Inc., is considering building a sensitive new radiation scanning device. His managers believe that there is a probability of 0.6 that the ATR Co. will come out with a competitive product. If Weiss adds an assembly line for the product and ATR Co. does not follow with a competitive product, Weiss's expected profit is $40,000; if Weiss adds an assembly line and ATR follows suit, Weiss still expects $10,000 profit. If Weiss adds a new plant addition and ATR does not produce a competitive product, Weiss expects a profit of $600,000; if ATR does compete for this market, Weiss expects a loss of $100,000. What is the best decision based on expected monetary value (EMV)? What are the EMV and the expected value of perfect information (EVPI)? The best decision is to select the new plant with the EMV of $320,000 and the EVPI is $364,000. The best decision is to select the assembly line with the EMV of $180,000 and the EVPI is $66,000. The best decision is to select the assembly line…arrow_forwardA company is considering whether to develop and market a particular product. There is 40% probability that the research and development department will come up with a viable product, and a 60% probability that the product will be scrapped. The cost of undertaking the research and development is 200 000. If the product development is successful, the company will build a plant. The product demand is unknown, and the company has the choice of building a large or small plant. The expected demand and the net present value is shown below: High Demand Low Demand ACTION Probability 75% Probability 25% Large Plant N$1 600 000 N$400 000 Small Plant N$1 000 000 N$1 000 000 Required: Advise the company on the most beneficial course of action using a decision tree.arrow_forwardA manufacturing plant has reached full capacity. The company must build a second plant—eithersmall or large—at a nearby location. The demand is likely to be high or low. The probability of low demand is 0.4. If demand is low, the large plant has a present value of $6 million and the small plant, $9 million. If demand is high, the large plant pays off with a present value of $20 million and the small plant with a present value of only $11 million. However, the small plant can be expanded later if demand proves to be high, for a present value of $13 million.arrow_forward
- Howard Weiss, Inc., is considering building a sensitive new radiation scanning device. His managers believe that there is a probability of 0.40 that the ATR Co. will come out with a competitive product. If Weiss adds an assembly line for the product and ATR Co. does not follow with a competitive product, Weiss's expected profit is $40,000; if Weiss adds an assembly line and ATR follows suit, Weiss still expects $20,000 profit. If Weiss adds a new plant addition and ATR does not produce a competitive product, Weiss expects a profit of $600,000; if ATR does compete for this market, Weiss expects a loss of $100,000. a) Expected value for the Add Assembly Line option = $ (enter your answer as a whole number).arrow_forwardThe Hard to Beat Bakery is deciding whether to buy or repair an existing oven thatthey have been using for over 8 years. If they elect to repair, it will cost the entity$950,000 and either of two outcomes is likely: 1. A 20% probability it will perform okay and generate revenues of$10,000,000, or 2. An 80% chance that it will be partially restored and generate revenue of$2,000,000. If on the other hand however, they purchase a new oven, they can either buy animported oven for $3,500,000 or they can buy a locally made one for $2,200,000.If the elect to purchase the imported oven, production will earn them revenues of$15,550,000, but if they buy the locally made oven, there is a 70% likelihood thatit perform as expected and generate revenues of $12,000,000; and a 30% chancethat it will not and generate revenues of $6,000,000. Required: 1. Draw a decision tree of this problem and determine the expected value.2. Advise the management of the Bakery on how to proceed.3. Briefly discuss the…arrow_forwardc. From the following decision tree, develop a payoff table and calculate: * Maximax, Minimax regret, Maximin, and EMV. ORs. 50,000 Good conditions (0.60) Poor conditions (0.40) -O Rs. 30,000 Apartment Building Good conditions (0.60) O Rs. 100,000 Office building Poor conditions (0.40) Purchase ORs -40,000 Warchouse Good conditions (0.60) Rs.30, 000 Poor conditions (0.40) O Rs. 10,000arrow_forward
- An oil company must decide whether or not to drill an oil well in a particular area that they already own. The decision maker (DM) believes that the area could be dry , reasonably good or a bonanza. See data in the table which shows the gross revenues for the oil well that is found. Decision Dry (D) Reasonably good(G) Bonanza(B) Drill $0 $85 $200 m Abandon $0 $0 $0 Probability 0.3 0.3 0.4 Drilling costs 40M. The company can take a series of seismic soundings ( at a cost of 12M) to determine the underlying geological structure. The results will be either “no structure”, “open structure or “closed structure”. The reliability of the testing company is as follows that is, this reflects their historical performance. Note that if the test result is “no structure” the company can sell the land to a developer for 50 m, otherwise (for the other results) it can abandon the drilling idea at no benefit to itself.…arrow_forwardA manufacturing plant has reached full capacity. The company must build a second plant—either small or large—at a nearby location. The demand is likely to be high or low. The probability of low demand is 0.3. If demand is low, the large plant has a present value of $5 million and the small plant, apresent value of $8 million. If demand is high, the large plant pays off with a present value of $18 million, and the small plant with a present value of only $10 million. However, the small plant can be expanded later if demand proves to be high for a present value of $14 million.a. Draw a decision tree for this problem.b. What should management do to achieve the highest expected payoff?arrow_forward1. A clothing store is opening a second location and wants to decide whether to open in San Francisco or New York. Opening a location in either city will involve different capital expenditures and demonstrate different rates of success. Below are the relevant data: DECISION PROBABILITY OF PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS FAILURE San Francisco 40% 60% New York 30% 70% PAYOFF (SUCCESS) 15,000,000 30,000,000 PAYOFF (FAILURE) 4,000,000 10,000,000 DECISION San Francisco New York The costs associated with opening each location are as follows: in San Francisco, the store will need to invest $2 million, while a New York location will require an investment of $5 million. The expected payoff amounts represent the potential revenue if the store succeeds, or the potential loss if the store fails. REQUIRED: a. Draw the decision tree for the above problem; b. Compute for the Expected Value for each decision; c. Compute for the net gain / loss of each decisionarrow_forward
arrow_back_ios
SEE MORE QUESTIONS
arrow_forward_ios
Recommended textbooks for you
- Practical Management ScienceOperations ManagementISBN:9781337406659Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.Publisher:Cengage,
Practical Management Science
Operations Management
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:Cengage,