Gen Combo Looseleaf Principles Of Corporate Finance With Connect Access Card
Gen Combo Looseleaf Principles Of Corporate Finance With Connect Access Card
13th Edition
ISBN: 9781260695991
Author: Richard A Brealey
Publisher: McGraw-Hill Education
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Chapter 9, Problem 25PS

Fudge factors An oil company executive is considering investing $10 million in one or both of two wells: Well 1 is expected to produce oil worth $3 million a year for 10 years; well 2 is expected to produce $2 million for 15 years. These are real (inflation-adjusted) cash flows.

The beta for producing wells is .9. The market risk premium is 8%, the nominal risk-free interest rate is 6%, and expected inflation is 4%.

The two wells are intended to develop a previously discovered oil field. Unfortunately there is still a 20% chance of a dry hole in each case. A dry hole means zero cash flows and a complete loss of the $10 million investment.

Ignore taxes and make further assumptions as necessary.

  1. a. What is the correct real discount rate for cash flows from developed wells?
  2. b. The oil company executive proposes to add 20 percentage points to the real discount rate to offset the risk of a dry hole. Calculate the NPV of each well with this adjusted discount rate.
  3. c. What do you say the NPYs of the two wells are?
  4. d. Is there any single fudge factor that could be added to the discount rate for developed wells that would yield the correct NPY for both wells? Explain.
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