Police science. A new lie-detector test has been devised and must be tested before it is used. One hundred people are selected at random, and each person draws a card from a box of 100 cards. Half the cards instruct the person to lie, and the others instruct the person to tell the truth. Of those who lied, 80 % fail the new lie-detector test (that is, the test indicates lying). Of those who told the truth. 5 % failed the test. What is the probability that a randomly chosen subject will have lied given that the subject failed the test? That the subject will not have lied given that the subject failed the test?
Police science. A new lie-detector test has been devised and must be tested before it is used. One hundred people are selected at random, and each person draws a card from a box of 100 cards. Half the cards instruct the person to lie, and the others instruct the person to tell the truth. Of those who lied, 80 % fail the new lie-detector test (that is, the test indicates lying). Of those who told the truth. 5 % failed the test. What is the probability that a randomly chosen subject will have lied given that the subject failed the test? That the subject will not have lied given that the subject failed the test?
Solution Summary: The author calculates the probability that a randomly chosen person will have lied if the subject failed the test.
Police science. A new lie-detector test has been devised and must be tested before it is used. One hundred people are selected at random, and each person draws a card from a box of
100
cards. Half the cards instruct the person to lie, and the others instruct the person to tell the truth. Of those who lied,
80
%
fail the new lie-detector test (that is, the test indicates lying). Of those who told the truth.
5
%
failed the test. What is the probability that a randomly chosen subject will have lied given that the subject failed the test? That the subject will not have lied given that the subject failed the test?
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