Intro Stats, Books a la Carte Edition (5th Edition)
5th Edition
ISBN: 9780134210285
Author: Richard D. De Veaux, Paul Velleman, David E. Bock
Publisher: PEARSON
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Chapter 7, Problem 24E
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3. Bayesian Inference – Updating Beliefs
A medical test for a rare disease has the following characteristics:
Sensitivity (true positive rate): 99%
Specificity (true negative rate): 98%
The disease occurs in 0.5% of the population.
A patient receives a positive test result.
Questions:
a) Define the relevant events and use Bayes’ Theorem to compute the probability that the patient actually has the disease.b) Explain why the result might seem counterintuitive, despite the high sensitivity and specificity.c) Discuss how prior probabilities influence posterior beliefs in Bayesian inference.d) Suppose a second, independent test with the same accuracy is conducted and is also positive. Update the probability that the patient has the disease.
4. Linear Regression - Model Assumptions and Interpretation
A real estate analyst is studying how house prices (Y) are related to house size in square feet (X). A simple
linear regression model is proposed:
The analyst fits the model and obtains:
•
Ŷ50,000+150X
YBoB₁X + €
•
R² = 0.76
• Residuals show a fan-shaped pattern when plotted against fitted values.
Questions:
a) Interpret the slope coefficient in context.
b) Explain what the R² value tells us about the model's performance.
c) Based on the residual pattern, what regression assumption is likely violated? What might be the
consequence?
d) Suggest at least two remedies to improve the model, based on the residual analysis.
Chapter 7 Solutions
Intro Stats, Books a la Carte Edition (5th Edition)
Ch. 7.4 - A scatterplot of house Price (in dollars) vs....Ch. 7.4 - A scatterplot of house Price (in dollars) vs....Ch. 7.4 - A scatterplot of house Price (in dollars) vs....Ch. 7.4 - A scatterplot of house Price (in dollars) vs....Ch. 7.4 - A scatterplot of house Price (in dollars) vs....Ch. 7.4 - Prob. 6JCCh. 7.6 - Back to our regression of house Price () on house...Ch. 7.6 - Back to our regression of house Price () on house...Ch. 7.6 - Back to our regression of house Price () on house...Ch. 7 - True or false If false, explain briefly. a) We...
Ch. 7 - True or false II If false, explain briefly. a)...Ch. 7 - Prob. 3ECh. 7 - Prob. 4ECh. 7 - Bookstore sales revisited Recall the data we saw...Ch. 7 - Prob. 6ECh. 7 - Prob. 7ECh. 7 - Prob. 8ECh. 7 - Bookstore sales once more Here are the residuals...Ch. 7 - Prob. 10ECh. 7 - Prob. 11ECh. 7 - Prob. 12ECh. 7 - Prob. 13ECh. 7 - Prob. 14ECh. 7 - Prob. 15ECh. 7 - Prob. 16ECh. 7 - More cereal Exercise 15 describes a regression...Ch. 7 - Prob. 18ECh. 7 - Another bowl In Exercise 15, the regression model...Ch. 7 - More engine size In Exercise 16, the regression...Ch. 7 - Cereal again The correlation between a cereals...Ch. 7 - Prob. 22ECh. 7 - Prob. 23ECh. 7 - Prob. 24ECh. 7 - Prob. 25ECh. 7 - Prob. 26ECh. 7 - Prob. 27ECh. 7 - Residuals Tell what each of the residual plots...Ch. 7 - Real estate A random sample of records of home...Ch. 7 - Prob. 30ECh. 7 - Prob. 31ECh. 7 - Prob. 32ECh. 7 - Real estate again The regression of Price on Size...Ch. 7 - Prob. 34ECh. 7 - Prob. 35ECh. 7 - More misinterpretations A Sociology student...Ch. 7 - Real estate redux The regression of Price on Size...Ch. 7 - Prob. 38ECh. 7 - Prob. 39ECh. 7 - Prob. 40ECh. 7 - Prob. 41ECh. 7 - Last ride Consider the roller coasters (with the...Ch. 7 - Prob. 43ECh. 7 - Prob. 44ECh. 7 - Prob. 45ECh. 7 - Prob. 46ECh. 7 - Prob. 47ECh. 7 - Prob. 48ECh. 7 - Prob. 49ECh. 7 - Interest rates and mortgages 2015 again In Chapter...Ch. 7 - Online clothes An online clothing retailer keeps...Ch. 7 - Online clothes II For the online clothing retailer...Ch. 7 - Prob. 53ECh. 7 - Success in college Colleges use SAT scores in the...Ch. 7 - SAT, take 2 Suppose we wanted to use SAT math...Ch. 7 - Prob. 56ECh. 7 - Prob. 57ECh. 7 - Wildfires 2015sizes We saw in Exercise 57 that the...Ch. 7 - Used cars 2014 Carmax.com lists numerous Toyota...Ch. 7 - Drug abuse revisited Chapter 6, Exercise 42...Ch. 7 - Prob. 61ECh. 7 - Prob. 62ECh. 7 - Prob. 63ECh. 7 - Chicken Chicken sandwiches are often advertised as...Ch. 7 - Prob. 65ECh. 7 - Cost of living 2016 Numbeo.com lists the cost of...Ch. 7 - Prob. 67ECh. 7 - Prob. 68ECh. 7 - Prob. 69ECh. 7 - Climate change 2016, revisited In Exercise 69, we...Ch. 7 - Prob. 71ECh. 7 - Prob. 72ECh. 7 - Prob. 73ECh. 7 - Heptathlon revisited again We saw the data for the...Ch. 7 - Hard water In an investigation of environmental...Ch. 7 - Gators Wildlife researchers monitor many wildlife...Ch. 7 - Prob. 77ECh. 7 - Least squares Consider the four points (200,1950),...
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