Production and Operations Analysis, Seventh Edition
Production and Operations Analysis, Seventh Edition
7th Edition
ISBN: 9781478623069
Author: Steven Nahmias, Tava Lennon Olsen
Publisher: Waveland Press, Inc.
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Chapter 6.9, Problem 26P
Summary Introduction

Interpretation:Pros and cons of having too many v/s too few suppliers in the supply chain.

Concept Introduction:Suppliers are essential components of a supply chain, in fact of any organization. The organization needs to establish a policy about the number of suppliers or, order quantities to each supplier. Optimization of the number of suppliers for an item is dependent on many factors like the item itself, the characteristics of the available suppliers, capacity and logistics available to suppliers, finance of the company etc. This is a unique decision by every company, in fact for every critical item, though the general concept is to have a few reliable supplier.

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Scenario You have been given a task to create a demand forecast for the second year of sales of a premium outdoor grill. Accurate forecasts are important for many reasons, including for the company to ensure they have the materials they need to create the products required in a certain period of time. Your objective is to minimize the forecast error, which will be measured using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) with a goal of being below 25%. You have historical monthly sales data for the past year and access to software that provides forecasts based on five different forecasting techniques (Naïve, 3-Month Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing for .2, Exponential Smooth for .5, and Seasonal) to help determine the best forecast for that particular month. Based on the given data, you will identify trends and patterns to create a more accurate forecast. Approach Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next…
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