Videos
Specialty Toys
Specialty Toys, Inc. sells a variety of new and innovative children's toys. Management learned that the preholiday season is the best time to introduce a new toy, because many families use this time to look for new ideas for holiday gifts. When Specialty a new toy with good market potential, it chooses an October market entry date.
In order to get toys into its stores by October, Specialty places one-time orders with its manufactures in June or July of each year. Demand for children's toys be highly volatile. If a new toy catches on, a sense of shortage in the marketplace often increases the demand to high levels and large profits be realized. However, toys can also flop, leaving Specialty stuck with high levels of inventory that must sold at reduced prices. The most important question the faces is deciding how many units of a toy should be purchased to meet anticipated sales demand. If too few are purchased, sales will be lost; if too many are purchased, profits will be reduced because of low prices realized in sales.
For the coming season, plans to introduce a new product called Weather Teddy. This variation of a talking teddy bear is made by a company in Taiwan. When a child presses Teddy's hand, the bear begins to talk. A built-in barometer selects of five responses that predict the weather conditions. The responses
As with other products, Specialty faces the decision of how many Weather Teddy units to order for the coming holiday season. Members of the management team suggested order quantities of 15,000, 18,000, or 28,000 units. The wide range of order quantities suggested indicates considerable disagreement concerning the market potential. The product management team asks you for an analysis of the stock-out probabilities for various order quantities, an estimate of the profit potential, and help with making an order quantity recommendation. Specialty expects to sell Weather Teddy for $24 based on a cost of $16 per unit. If inventory remains after the holiday season, Specialty will sell all surplus inventory for $5 per unit. After reviewing the sales history of similar products, Specialty's senior sales forecaster predicted an expected demand of 20,000 units with a .95
Managerial Report
Prepare a managerial report that addresses the following issues and recommends an order quantity for the Weather Teddy product.
2. Compute the probability of a stock-out for the older quantities suggested by members of the management team.
Want to see the full answer?
Check out a sample textbook solution
Chapter 6 Solutions
ESSEN OF MOD BUS STAT(LL) W/MIND TAP
- An electronics company manufactures batches of n circuit boards. Before a batch is approved for shipment, m boards are randomly selected from the batch and tested. The batch is rejected if more than d boards in the sample are found to be faulty. a) A batch actually contains six faulty circuit boards. Find the probability that the batch is rejected when n = 20, m = 5, and d = 1. b) A batch actually contains nine faulty circuit boards. Find the probability that the batch is rejected when n = 30, m = 10, and d = 1.arrow_forwardTwenty-eight applicants interested in working for the Food Stamp program took an examination designed to measure their aptitude for social work. A stem-and-leaf plot of the 28 scores appears below, where the first column is the count per branch, the second column is the stem value, and the remaining digits are the leaves. a) List all the values. Count 1 Stems Leaves 4 6 1 4 6 567 9 3688 026799 9 8 145667788 7 9 1234788 b) Calculate the first quartile (Q1) and the third Quartile (Q3). c) Calculate the interquartile range. d) Construct a boxplot for this data.arrow_forwardPam, Rob and Sam get a cake that is one-third chocolate, one-third vanilla, and one-third strawberry as shown below. They wish to fairly divide the cake using the lone chooser method. Pam likes strawberry twice as much as chocolate or vanilla. Rob only likes chocolate. Sam, the chooser, likes vanilla and strawberry twice as much as chocolate. In the first division, Pam cuts the strawberry piece off and lets Rob choose his favorite piece. Based on that, Rob chooses the chocolate and vanilla parts. Note: All cuts made to the cake shown below are vertical.Which is a second division that Rob would make of his share of the cake?arrow_forward
- Three players (one divider and two choosers) are going to divide a cake fairly using the lone divider method. The divider cuts the cake into three slices (s1, s2, and s3). If the choosers' declarations are Chooser 1: {s1 , s2} and Chooser 2: {s2 , s3}. Using the lone-divider method, how many different fair divisions of this cake are possible?arrow_forwardTheorem 2.6 (The Minkowski inequality) Let p≥1. Suppose that X and Y are random variables, such that E|X|P <∞ and E|Y P <00. Then X+YpX+Yparrow_forwardTheorem 1.2 (1) Suppose that P(|X|≤b) = 1 for some b > 0, that EX = 0, and set Var X = 0². Then, for 0 0, P(X > x) ≤e-x+1²² P(|X|>x) ≤2e-1x+1²² (ii) Let X1, X2...., Xn be independent random variables with mean 0, suppose that P(X ≤b) = 1 for all k, and set oσ = Var X. Then, for x > 0. and 0x) ≤2 exp Σ k=1 (iii) If, in addition, X1, X2, X, are identically distributed, then P(S|x) ≤2 expl-tx+nt²o).arrow_forward
- Theorem 5.1 (Jensen's inequality) state without proof the Jensen's Ineg. Let X be a random variable, g a convex function, and suppose that X and g(X) are integrable. Then g(EX) < Eg(X).arrow_forwardCan social media mistakes hurt your chances of finding a job? According to a survey of 1,000 hiring managers across many different industries, 76% claim that they use social media sites to research prospective candidates for any job. Calculate the probabilities of the following events. (Round your answers to three decimal places.) answer parts a-c. a) Out of 30 job listings, at least 19 will conduct social media screening. b) Out of 30 job listings, fewer than 17 will conduct social media screening. c) Out of 30 job listings, exactly between 19 and 22 (including 19 and 22) will conduct social media screening. show all steps for probabilities please. answer parts a-c.arrow_forwardQuestion: we know that for rt. (x+ys s ا. 13. rs. and my so using this, show that it vye and EIXI, EIYO This : E (IX + Y) ≤2" (EIX (" + Ely!")arrow_forward
- Theorem 2.4 (The Hölder inequality) Let p+q=1. If E|X|P < ∞ and E|Y| < ∞, then . |EXY ≤ E|XY|||X|| ||||qarrow_forwardTheorem 7.6 (Etemadi's inequality) Let X1, X2, X, be independent random variables. Then, for all x > 0, P(max |S|>3x) ≤3 max P(S| > x). Isk≤narrow_forwardTheorem 7.2 Suppose that E X = 0 for all k, that Var X = 0} x) ≤ 2P(S>x 1≤k≤n S√2), -S√2). P(max Sk>x) ≤ 2P(|S|>x- 1arrow_forwardarrow_back_iosSEE MORE QUESTIONSarrow_forward_ios
MATLAB: An Introduction with ApplicationsStatisticsISBN:9781119256830Author:Amos GilatPublisher:John Wiley & Sons Inc
Probability and Statistics for Engineering and th...StatisticsISBN:9781305251809Author:Jay L. DevorePublisher:Cengage Learning
Statistics for The Behavioral Sciences (MindTap C...StatisticsISBN:9781305504912Author:Frederick J Gravetter, Larry B. WallnauPublisher:Cengage Learning
Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World (7th E...StatisticsISBN:9780134683416Author:Ron Larson, Betsy FarberPublisher:PEARSON
The Basic Practice of StatisticsStatisticsISBN:9781319042578Author:David S. Moore, William I. Notz, Michael A. FlignerPublisher:W. H. Freeman
Introduction to the Practice of StatisticsStatisticsISBN:9781319013387Author:David S. Moore, George P. McCabe, Bruce A. CraigPublisher:W. H. Freeman