Modern Business Statistics with Microsoft Office Excel (with XLSTAT Education Edition Printed Access Card)
6th Edition
ISBN: 9780357191484
Author: David R. Anderson; Dennis J. Sweeney; Thomas A. Williams
Publisher: Cengage Learning US
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Chapter 5, Problem 4CP
Sagittarius Casino
The Sagittarius Casino’s strategy for establishing a competitive advantage over its competitors is to periodically create unique and interesting new games for its customers to play. Sagittarius management feels it is time for the casino to once again introduce a new game to excite its customer base, and Sagittarius's Director of Research and Development. Lou Zerbit, believes he and his staff have developed a new game that will accomplish this goal. The game, which they have named POSO! (An acronym for Payouts on Selected Outcomes), is to be played in the following manner. A player will select two different values from 1, 2. 3, 4, 5, and 6, two dice are then rolled. If the first number the player selected comes up on at least one of the two dice, the player wins $5.00: if the second number the player selected comes up on both of the dice, the player wins $10.00. If neither of these
For example, suppose a player fills out the following card for one game of POSO!
When the two dice are rolled, if at least one die comes up 4 the player will win $5.00, if both dice come up 2 the player will win $10.00, and if any other outcome occurs the player wins nothing.
Managerial Report
Sagittarius management now has three questions about POSO! These questions should be addressed in your report
- 1. Although they certainly do not want to pay out more than they take in, casinos like to offer games in which players win frequently: casino managers believe this keeps players excited about playing the game. What is the
probability a player will win if she or he plays a single game of POSO! - 2. What is the expected amount a player will win when playing one game of POSO!
- 3. Sagittarius managers want to take in more than they pay out on average for a game of POSO! Furthermore, casinos such as Sagittarius are often looking for games that provide their gamers with an opportunity to play for a small bet. And Sagittarius management would like to charge players $2.00 to play one game of POSO! What will be the expected profit earned by Sagittarius Casino on a single play if a player has to pay $2.00 for a single play of POSO!. Will Sagittarius Casino expect to earn or lose money on POSO! If a player pays $2.00 for a single play? What is the minimum amount Sagittarius Casino can charge a player for a single play of POSO! And still expect to earn money?
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Toys Everyday must decide which course of action to follow in promoting a new Gizmo toy
it has developed. Initially management must decide whether to market this toy or to conduct a
test marketing programme. After test marketing the Gizmo, management must decide
whether to abandon it or distribute it nationally.
A national success will (NS) will increase profits by $1,000,000 and a failure (NF) will
reduce profits by $200,000. Abandoning the product will not affect profits. The test
marketing will cost the company a further $20,000.
Decision Alternatives NS(NATIONAL | NF(NATIONAL FAILURE)
SUCCESS)
Market
1000,000
($200,000)
Abandon
Prior Probabilities
P(S) = 0.45
P(F) = .55
Conditional probability for a given state of nature where test results are either Favourable (F)
P(U|NS) = 0.12;
or negative (U): P(F]NS) = 0.88;
P(U|NF) = 0.82
P(F|NF) = 0.18;
After you have computed the revised probabilities round to two decimal places
a) Construct the appropriate decision tree to help Toys make…
Toys Everyday must decide which course of action to follow in promoting a new Gizmo toy it has developed. Initially management must decide whether to market this toy or to conduct a test marketing programme. After test marketing the Gizmo, management must decidewhether to abandon it or distribute it nationally.A national success will (NS) will increase profits by $1,000,000 and a failure (NF) will reduce profits by $200,000. Abandoning the product will not affect profits. The test marketing will cost the company a further $20,000.
After you have computed the revised probabilities round to two decimal placesa) Construct the appropriate decision tree to help Toys make the appropriate decisions. This tree must be constructed in logical order with labels and net payoffsIt also includes the revised probabilities b) Fold back the decision tree to determine the best strategy for Toys; you must state this strategy. What is the final expected profit?c) What is the expected value of sample…
Toys Everyday must decide which course of action to follow in promoting a new Gizmo toy it has developed. Initially management must decide whether to market this toy or to conduct a test marketing programme. After test marketing the Gizmo, management must decidewhether to abandon it or distribute it nationally.A national success will (NS) will increase profits by $1,000,000 and a failure (NF) will reduce profits by $200,000. Abandoning the product will not affect profits. The test marketing will cost the company a further $20,000.
Conditional probability for a given state of nature where test results are either Favourable (F) or negative (U): P(F|NS) = 0.88; P(U|NS) = 0.12; P(F|NF) = 0.18; P(U|NF) = 0.82
After you have computed the revised probabilities round to two decimal places
a) Construct the appropriate decision tree to help Toys make the appropriate decisions. This tree must be constructed in logical order with labels and net payoffs
It also includes the revised probabilities…
Chapter 5 Solutions
Modern Business Statistics with Microsoft Office Excel (with XLSTAT Education Edition Printed Access Card)
Ch. 5.1 - 1. Consider the experiment of tossing a coin...Ch. 5.1 - 2. Consider the experiment of a worker assembling...Ch. 5.1 - 3. Three students scheduled interviews for summer...Ch. 5.1 - Prob. 4ECh. 5.1 - 5. To perform a certain type of blood analysis,...Ch. 5.1 - 6. Listed is a series of experiments and...Ch. 5.2 - 7. The probability distribution for the random...Ch. 5.2 - 8. The following data were collected by counting...Ch. 5.2 - 9. For unemployed persons in the United States,...Ch. 5.2 - 10. The percent frequency distributions of job...
Ch. 5.2 - 11. A technician services mailing machines at...Ch. 5.2 - 12. Time Warner Cable provides television and...Ch. 5.2 - 13. A psychologist determined that the number of...Ch. 5.2 - Prob. 14ECh. 5.3 - 15. The following table provides a probability...Ch. 5.3 - 16. The following table provides a probability...Ch. 5.3 - 17. During the summer of 2014, Coldstream Country...Ch. 5.3 - 18. The American Housing Survey reported the...Ch. 5.3 - 19. West Virginia has one of the highest divorce...Ch. 5.3 - 20. The probability distribution for damage claims...Ch. 5.3 - 21. The following probability distributions of job...Ch. 5.3 - 22. The demand for a product of Carolina...Ch. 5.3 - 23. In Gallup’s Annual Consumption Habits Poll,...Ch. 5.3 - Prob. 24ECh. 5.4 - 25. Given below is a bivariate distribution for...Ch. 5.4 - 26. A person is interested in constructing a...Ch. 5.4 - 27. The Chamber of Commerce in a Canadian city has...Ch. 5.4 - 28. PortaCom has developed a design for a...Ch. 5.4 - 29. J.P. Morgan Asset Management publishes...Ch. 5.4 - 30. In addition to the information in exercise 29...Ch. 5.5 - 31. Consider a binomial experiment with two trials...Ch. 5.5 - Prob. 32ECh. 5.5 - 33. Consider a binomial experiment with n = 20 and...Ch. 5.5 - 34. For its Music 360 survey, Nielsen Co. asked...Ch. 5.5 - 35. The Center for Medicare and Medical Services...Ch. 5.5 - 36. When a new machine is functioning properly,...Ch. 5.5 - 37. According to a 2013 study by the Pew Research...Ch. 5.5 - 38. Military radar and missile detection systems...Ch. 5.5 - 39. Market-share-analysis company Net Applications...Ch. 5.5 - 42. A Gallup Poll showed that 30% of Americans are...Ch. 5.5 - Tracked Emails. According to a 2017 Wired magazine...Ch. 5.6 - 44. Consider a Poisson distribution with μ =...Ch. 5.6 - 45. Consider a Poisson distribution with a mean of...Ch. 5.6 - 46. Phone calls arrive at the rate of 48 per hour...Ch. 5.6 - 47. During the period of time that a local...Ch. 5.6 - Prob. 48ECh. 5.6 - 49. Airline passengers arrive randomly and...Ch. 5.6 - 50. According to the National Oceanic and...Ch. 5.6 - 51. Over 500 million tweets are sent per day...Ch. 5.7 - 52. Suppose N = 10 and r = 3. Compute the...Ch. 5.7 - Prob. 53ECh. 5.7 - 54. A recent survey showed that a majority of...Ch. 5.7 - 55. Blackjack, or twenty-one as it is frequently...Ch. 5.7 - 56. Axline Computers manufactures personal...Ch. 5.7 - 57. The Zagat Restaurant Survey provides food,...Ch. 5.7 -
Suppose that a shipment of 100 boxes of apples...Ch. 5 - 59. The U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) provides a wide...Ch. 5 - 60. The Car Repair Ratings website provides...Ch. 5 - 61. The budgeting process for a midwestern college...Ch. 5 - 62. A bookstore at the Hartsfield-Jackson Airport...Ch. 5 - 63. The Knowles/Armitage (KA) group at Merrill...Ch. 5 - 64. The Pew Research Center surveyed adults who...Ch. 5 - 65. The following table shows the percentage of...Ch. 5 - Prob. 66SECh. 5 - 67. PBS News Hour reported that 39.4% of Americans...Ch. 5 - Prob. 68SECh. 5 - Arrivals to a Car Wash. Cars arrive at a car wash...Ch. 5 - Prob. 70SECh. 5 - Prob. 71SECh. 5 - Prob. 72SECh. 5 - Great Grasslands Grains, Inc. (GGG) manufactures...Ch. 5 - Harriet McNeil, proprietor of McNeil’s Auto Mall,...Ch. 5 -
Grievance Committee at Tuglar Corporation
Several...Ch. 5 -
Sagittarius Casino
The Sagittarius Casino’s...
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