Managerial Economics: Applications, Strategies and Tactics (MindTap Course List)
14th Edition
ISBN: 9781305506381
Author: James R. McGuigan, R. Charles Moyer, Frederick H.deB. Harris
Publisher: Cengage Learning
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Chapter 5, Problem 3E
Metropolitan Hospital has estimated its average monthly bed needs as
where
Assume that no new hospital additions are expected in the area in the foreseeable future. The following monthly seasonal adjustment factors have been estimated, using data from the past five years:
Forecast Metropolitan’s beddemand for January, April, July, November, and December 2007.- If the following actual and forecast values for June bed demands have been recorded, what seasonal adjustment factor would you recommend be used in making future June forecasts?
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Bell Greenhouses has estimated its monthly demand for potting soil to be the following:
Assume this trend factor is expected to remain stable in the foreseeable future. The following table contains the monthly seasonal adjustment factors, which have been estimated using actual sales data from the past five years:
MONTH
ADJUSTMENT FACTOR (%)
March
+2
June
+15
August
+10
December
−12
a.
Forecast Bell Greenhouses’ demand for potting soil in March, June, August, and December 2007.
Answer
b.
If the following table shows the forecasted and actual potting soil sales by Bell Greenhouses for April in five different years, determine the seasonal adjustment factor to be used in making an April 2008 forecast.
YEAR
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2007
500
515
2006
452
438
2005
404
420
2004
356
380
2003
308
320
8675
84. Bell Greenhouses has estimated Its monthly demand for potting soil to be
the following:
9
10 N=400+4X
11 where
N=monthly demand for bags of potting soil X-time periods in months (March 2022-0)
12 Assume this trend factor is expected to remain stable in the foreseeable future. The following table contains the monthly seasonal adjustment factors,
which have been estimated using actual
13
sales data from the past five years:
14
15
Adjustment Factor
16
+2
17
June
+1.5
18
August
+10
19
December
-12
20 a. Forecast Bell Greenhouses' demand for potting soll In March, June, August, and December
2023.
21
22 b. If the following table shows the forecasted and actual potting soil sales by Bell Greenhouses for April in five
different years, determine the seasonal adjustment factor to be used in making an April 2023 forecast.
RASA2823
24
25
26
27
29
7.3 2019
2018
30
31
HAW
33
Year
2022
2021
2020
Month
March
Forecast
500
452
404
356
308
Actual
515
438
420
380
320
Metropolitan Hospital has estimated its average monthly bed needs, N, as:
N = 460 + 9X
where X = time period (months); (January 2002 = 0)
Assume that no new hospital additions are expected in the area in the foreseeable future. The following monthly seasonal adjustment factors have
been estimated, using data from the past five years:
Forecast Metropolitan's bed demand for January, April, July, November, and December 2007.
Month
Adjustment Factor (%)
Forecast
January
+5
April
-15
July
+4
November
-5
December
-25
Suppose the following actual and forecast values for June bed demands have been recorded.
Year Forecast
Actual
2007
1,045
1,139
2006
937
974
2005
829
895
2004
721
743
2003
613
656
2002
505
515
What seasonal adjustment factor would you recommend be used in making future June forecasts?
O 5.5%
O 0.2%
O 2.3%
Chapter 5 Solutions
Managerial Economics: Applications, Strategies and Tactics (MindTap Course List)
Ch. 5 - The forecasting staff for the Prizer Corporation...Ch. 5 - Prob. 2ECh. 5 - Metropolitan Hospital has estimated its average...Ch. 5 - Prob. 4ECh. 5 - A firm experienced the demand shown in the...Ch. 5 - The economic analysis division of Mapco...Ch. 5 - The Questor Corporation has experienced the...Ch. 5 - Bell Greenhouses has estimated its monthly demand...Ch. 5 - Savings-Mart (a chain of discount department...Ch. 5 - Prob. 1.1CE
Ch. 5 - Plot the logarithm of arrivals for each...Ch. 5 - Logarithms are especially useful for comparing...Ch. 5 - Prob. 1.4CECh. 5 - In attempting to formulate a model of the...Ch. 5 - Estimate the double-log (log linear) time trend...Ch. 5 - Prob. 2.1CECh. 5 - Prob. 3.1CECh. 5 - Prob. 3.2CECh. 5 - Prob. 3.3CE
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