OPEARATIONS MANAG.REV CUSTOM 2017
17th Edition
ISBN: 9781323590058
Author: Pearson
Publisher: PEARSON C
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Chapter 4, Problem 22P
Question
• 4.22 Refer to Problem 4.21. Complete the trend-adjusted exponential-smoothing
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Question 3:
Jane is trying to forecast demand for her store, using moving average with n=2,
Fill in the missing cells with correct values and find average error for first quarter and second quarter of year
2000
E
Enroll-
Year
Quarter
ment
Forecast
Error
Abs Error
1997
313
3.
2
285
4
3
312
5.
4
339
6.
1998
1
359
7
320
356
385
6.
10
1999
396
367
11
397
12
423
13
14
2000
1
15
2000
3412M4
Question #2
Month
Demand
1
45
2
48
3
43
4
48
5
49
6
54
7
47
8
50
9
46
10
47
Using the table above, calculate two forecasts using the following method:-
First, for periods 4 through 10, develop the exponentially smoothed forecasts using a forecast for period 3 (F3) of 45.0 and an alpha of 0.4.
ii. Calculate the weighted moving average for periods 4 through 10, using weights of .70, .20, and .10, with 0.70 applied to the most recent data.
iii. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for each forecasting procedure. Which forecasting procedure would you select? Why?
QUESTION ONE (b) The forecast of a product for the first week of January was 200 units, whereas the actual demand turned out to be 220 units.
i. Find the forecast for the week of January assuming the smoothing constant 0.2 α =
ii. Find the forecast for the third week of third week of January if the actual demand of the second week is 210 units
Chapter 4 Solutions
OPEARATIONS MANAG.REV CUSTOM 2017
Ch. 4 - What is a qualitative foretasting model, and when...Ch. 4 - Identify and briefly describe the two general...Ch. 4 - Identify the three forecasting time horizons....Ch. 4 - Briefly describe the steps that are used to...Ch. 4 - A skeptical manager asks what medium-range...Ch. 4 - Explain why such forecasting devices as moving...Ch. 4 - What is the basic difference between a weighted...Ch. 4 - What three methods are used to determine the...Ch. 4 - Research and briefly describe the Delphi...Ch. 4 - What is the primary difference between a...
Ch. 4 - Define time series.Ch. 4 - What effect does the value of the smoothing...Ch. 4 - Explain the value of seasonal indices in...Ch. 4 - Which forecasting technique can place the most...Ch. 4 - In your own words, explain adaptive forecasting.Ch. 4 - What is the purpose of a tracking signal?Ch. 4 - Explain, in your own words, the meaning of the...Ch. 4 - What is the difference between a dependent and an...Ch. 4 - Give examples of industries that are affected by...Ch. 4 - Give examples of industries in which demand...Ch. 4 - Prob. 21DQCh. 4 - The following gives the number of pints of type B...Ch. 4 - 4.2 a. Plot the above data on a graph. Do you...Ch. 4 - Refer to Problem 4.2. Develop a forecast for years...Ch. 4 - A check-processing center uses exponential...Ch. 4 - The Carbondale Hospital is considering the...Ch. 4 - The monthly sales for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were...Ch. 4 - The actual demand for the patients at Omaha...Ch. 4 - Daily high temperatures in St. Louis for the last...Ch. 4 - Lenovo uses the ZX-81 chip in some of its laptop...Ch. 4 - Data collected on the yearly registrations for a...Ch. 4 - Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing...Ch. 4 - Consider the following actual and forecast demand...Ch. 4 - As you can see in the following table, demand for...Ch. 4 - Following are two weekly forecasts made by two...Ch. 4 - Refer to Solved Problem 4.1 on page 138. a. Use a...Ch. 4 - Solved example 4.1 Sales of Volkswagens popular...Ch. 4 - Refer to Solved Problem 4.1. Using smoothing...Ch. 4 - Consider the following actual (At) and forecast...Ch. 4 - Income at the architectural firm Spraggins and...Ch. 4 - Question 4.20 Resolve Problem 4.19 with =.1 and ...Ch. 4 - Question 4.21 Refer to the trend-adjusted...Ch. 4 - Question 4.22 Refer to Problem 4.21. Complete the...Ch. 4 - Question 4.23 Sales of quilt covers at Bud Baniss...Ch. 4 - Question 4.24 Mark Gershon, owner of a musical...Ch. 4 - Question 4.25 The following gives the number of...Ch. 4 - Prob. 26PCh. 4 - Question 4.27 George Kyparisis owns a company...Ch. 4 - Question 4.28 Attendance at Orlandos newest...Ch. 4 - Question 4.29 North Dakota Electric Company...Ch. 4 - Lori Cook has developed the following forecasting...Ch. 4 - Prob. 31PCh. 4 - Question 4.32 The following data relate the sales...Ch. 4 - Question 4.33 The number of internal disk drives...Ch. 4 - Question 4.34 The number of auto accidents in...Ch. 4 - Question 4.35 Rhonda Clark, a Slippery Rock,...Ch. 4 - Accountants at the Tucson firm, Larry Youdelman,...Ch. 4 - Sales of tablet computers at Ted Glickmans...Ch. 4 - Question 4.38 City government has collected the...Ch. 4 - Dr. Lillian Fok, a New Orleans psychologist,...Ch. 4 - Using the data in Problem 4.39, apply linear...Ch. 4 - Bus and subway ridership for the summer months in...Ch. 4 - CEO John Goodale, at Southern Illinois Power and...Ch. 4 - Emergency calls to the 911 system of Durham, North...Ch. 4 - Using the 911 call data in Problem 4.43, forecast...Ch. 4 - The following are monthly actual and forecast...Ch. 4 - Thirteen students entered the business program at...Ch. 4 - Question 4.47 Storrs Cycles has just started...Ch. 4 - Question 4.48 Dave Fletcher, the general manager...Ch. 4 - Question 4.49 Boulanger Savings and Loan is proud...Ch. 4 - Case study Southwestern University: (B) This...Ch. 4 - Case study Southwestern University: (B) This...Ch. 4 - Southwestern University: (B) This integrated case...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...
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- Question Four: ABC Company sells home appliances. Daily sales for a six-day period were as follows: Day Sales Saturday 20 Sunday 24 Monday 30 Tuesday 40 Wednesday 36 Thursday 44 Forecast Friday sales volume using each of the following methods: A three-day moving average. A four day weighted average using weights of 0.1, 0.2, 0.3 and 0.4 Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to 0.2, assuming Wednesday forecast of 42. Determine a linear trend line equation for ABC Company. Use the trend equation to forecast Friday sales volume.arrow_forwardQuestion a. To select a reliable forecast technique that you can use to predict the future sales of your bags basedon past sales performances, you have considered two different forecasting techniques - Naïve forecast,and exponential smoothing forecast technique with a smoothing constant of 0.20. Now generateforecast results for all 5 months by using Naïve forecast, and exponential smoothing forecast techniquewith a smoothing constant of 0.20. b. Now use Mean absolute deviation (MAD) and Mean squared error (MSE), these forecast accuracy orerror measurement tools, and determine which forecast technique between Naïve forecast, andexponential forecast techniques gives the lowest forecast error and highest forecast accuracy.arrow_forwardQuestion 18 A tire company needs a forecast for studded tires in the next forecast period. The company typically uses an exponential smoothing forecast using a smoothing constant of alpha = 0.20. The demand for the most recent period was 100 and the forecast for the same period was 110. Based on this information, what is the tire company's forecast for the next period? Group of answer choices a. 100 tires b. 102 tires c. 108 tires d. 110 tires e. Impossible to determinearrow_forward
- If the forecasted value of the time series variable for one period is 28.5 and the actual value observed for the same period is 32, what is the forecast error for that period? Question 19 options: 3.5 2 -3.5 4arrow_forwardQuestion 1 ABC Restaurant has made a forecast for last week's operations vs Actual result of the forecast last week. Period Monday Tuesday Actual 112 110 113 120 140 Forecast 115 104 Wednesday 110 Thursday 115 Friday 135 Using this table above, solve for Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) Note: Round up to the last 2 decimals example 9.6568->9.66arrow_forwardQuestion 3 Auto sales at Carmen's Chevrolet are shown below. Using a 3-week weighted moving average (w₁= 0.5, w2-0.4, w3-0.1), what is the forecasted sales for month 7? note: write the rounded-off number (eg. "75" and NOT "75.17") Month Auto Sales 1 6 2 10 3 9 4 9 5 10 6 16 7 ???arrow_forward
- Question 3 ABC Restaurant has made a forecast for last week's operations vs Actual result of the forecast last week. Period Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Actual 112 110 113 120 140 Forecast 115. 1041 110 115 135 Using this table above, solve for Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) Note Round up to the last 2 decimals, example 9.6568->9 66 3arrow_forwardThe moving average forecast method should only be used with time series data demonstrating a linear trend. Question 17 options: True Falsearrow_forwardQUESTION 4 A company's focus should be on how to move from a demand-driven mentality to a forecast-driven mentality. True Falsearrow_forward
- Question 1. The dean of a school of business is forecasting total student enrollment for this year (2019ys summer session classes based on the following historical data: YEAR TOTAL ENROLLMENT y 2,000 2,200 2,800 3,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 a) What is this year's forecast using a three-year simple moving average?arrow_forwardQUESTION # 7 A small restaurant offers tacos to their patrons. One of their specialties is the Mega Taco Supreme. A weekly forecast of the demand of this special taco is to be made in order for the manager to order taco shells in time. Recently the demand has been as follows: Week Tacos Week Таcos April 6 April 13 Аpril 20 April 27 May 4 Мay 11 56 60 65 56 55 50 a. Forecast the demand for the taco for April 27 to May 18 by using the simple moving average method with n-3. Then repeat the forecast by using the weighted moving average method with n=3 and weights of 0.5, 0.3, and 0.2 with 0.5 applied to the most recent demand. b. Calculate the MAD for each method and compare.arrow_forwardQuestion 1. The dean of a school of business is forecasting total student enrollment for this year (2019)'s summer session classes based on the following historical data: YEAR TOTAL ENROLLMENT y 2,000 2,200 2,800 3,000 2015 2016 2017 2018arrow_forward
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