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Expand Your knowledge: Moving Averages You do not need a lot of money to invest in a mutual fund. However, if you decide to put some money into an investment, you are usually advised to leave it in for (at least) several years. Why? Because good years tend to cancel out had years, giving you a better overall return with less risk. To see what we
Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | S | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
% Return | 1.78 | 17.79 | 744 | 5.95 | -4.74 | 25.85 | 9.03 | 18.92 | 17.49 | 6.80 | -2.38 |
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(a) Use a calculator with mean and standard deviation keys to verify that the mean annual return for all 11 years is approximately 9.45%, with standard deviation 9.57%.
(b) To compute a 3-year moving average for 1992. we take the data values for year 3 and the poor 2 years and average them. To compute a 3-year moving average for year 4, we take the data values for year 4 and the poor 2 years and average them. Verify that the following 3-year moving averages are correct.
Year | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
3-year moving average | 9.01 | 10.40 | 2.89 | 9.02 | 10.05 | 17.93 | 15.15 | 14.40 | 7.30 |
(c) Use a calculator with mean and standard deviation keys to verify that for the 3-year moving average, the mean is 10.68% with sample standard deviation 4.53%.
(d) Interpretation Compare the results of parts (a) and (c). Suppose we take the point of view that risk is measured by standard deviation. Is the risk (standard deviation) of the 3-year moving average considerably smaller? This is an example of a general phenomenon that will he studied in more detail in Chapter 6.
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Chapter 3 Solutions
Bundle: Understanding Basic Statistics, Loose-leaf Version, 8th + WebAssign Printed Access Card, Single-Term
- - + ++ Table 2: Crack Experiment for Exercise 2 A B C D Treatment Combination (1) Replicate I II 7.037 6.376 14.707 15.219 |++++ 1 བྱ॰༤༠སྦྱོ སྦྱོཋཏྟཱུ a b ab 11.635 12.089 17.273 17.815 с ас 10.403 10.151 4.368 4.098 bc abc 9.360 9.253 13.440 12.923 d 8.561 8.951 ad 16.867 17.052 bd 13.876 13.658 abd 19.824 19.639 cd 11.846 12.337 acd 6.125 5.904 bcd 11.190 10.935 abcd 15.653 15.053 Question 3 Continuation of Exercise 2. One of the variables in the experiment described in Exercise 2, heat treatment method (C), is a categorical variable. Assume that the remaining factors are continuous. (a) Write two regression models for predicting crack length, one for each level of the heat treatment method variable. What differences, if any, do you notice in these two equations? (b) Generate appropriate response surface contour plots for the two regression models in part (a). (c) What set of conditions would you recommend for the factors A, B, and D if you use heat treatment method C = +? (d) Repeat…arrow_forwardQuestion 2 A nickel-titanium alloy is used to make components for jet turbine aircraft engines. Cracking is a potentially serious problem in the final part because it can lead to nonrecoverable failure. A test is run at the parts producer to determine the effect of four factors on cracks. The four factors are: pouring temperature (A), titanium content (B), heat treatment method (C), amount of grain refiner used (D). Two replicates of a 24 design are run, and the length of crack (in mm x10-2) induced in a sample coupon subjected to a standard test is measured. The data are shown in Table 2. 1 (a) Estimate the factor effects. Which factor effects appear to be large? (b) Conduct an analysis of variance. Do any of the factors affect cracking? Use a = 0.05. (c) Write down a regression model that can be used to predict crack length as a function of the significant main effects and interactions you have identified in part (b). (d) Analyze the residuals from this experiment. (e) Is there an…arrow_forwardA 24-1 design has been used to investigate the effect of four factors on the resistivity of a silicon wafer. The data from this experiment are shown in Table 4. Table 4: Resistivity Experiment for Exercise 5 Run A B с D Resistivity 1 23 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 I+I+I+I+Oooo 0 0 ||++TI++o000 33.2 4.6 31.2 9.6 40.6 162.4 39.4 158.6 63.4 62.6 58.7 0 0 60.9 3 (a) Estimate the factor effects. Plot the effect estimates on a normal probability scale. (b) Identify a tentative model for this process. Fit the model and test for curvature. (c) Plot the residuals from the model in part (b) versus the predicted resistivity. Is there any indication on this plot of model inadequacy? (d) Construct a normal probability plot of the residuals. Is there any reason to doubt the validity of the normality assumption?arrow_forward
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- Suppose a random sample of 459 married couples found that 307 had two or more personality preferences in common. In another random sample of 471 married couples, it was found that only 31 had no preferences in common. Let p1 be the population proportion of all married couples who have two or more personality preferences in common. Let p2 be the population proportion of all married couples who have no personality preferences in common. Find a95% confidence interval for . Round your answer to three decimal places.arrow_forwardA history teacher interviewed a random sample of 80 students about their preferences in learning activities outside of school and whether they are considering watching a historical movie at the cinema. 69 answered that they would like to go to the cinema. Let p represent the proportion of students who want to watch a historical movie. Determine the maximal margin of error. Use α = 0.05. Round your answer to three decimal places. arrow_forwardA random sample of medical files is used to estimate the proportion p of all people who have blood type B. If you have no preliminary estimate for p, how many medical files should you include in a random sample in order to be 99% sure that the point estimate will be within a distance of 0.07 from p? Round your answer to the next higher whole number.arrow_forward
- A clinical study is designed to assess the average length of hospital stay of patients who underwent surgery. A preliminary study of a random sample of 70 surgery patients’ records showed that the standard deviation of the lengths of stay of all surgery patients is 7.5 days. How large should a sample to estimate the desired mean to within 1 day at 95% confidence? Round your answer to the whole number.arrow_forwardA clinical study is designed to assess the average length of hospital stay of patients who underwent surgery. A preliminary study of a random sample of 70 surgery patients’ records showed that the standard deviation of the lengths of stay of all surgery patients is 7.5 days. How large should a sample to estimate the desired mean to within 1 day at 95% confidence? Round your answer to the whole number.arrow_forwardIn the experiment a sample of subjects is drawn of people who have an elbow surgery. Each of the people included in the sample was interviewed about their health status and measurements were taken before and after surgery. Are the measurements before and after the operation independent or dependent samples?arrow_forward
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