EBK OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
14th Edition
ISBN: 9781260718447
Author: Stevenson
Publisher: MCG COURSE
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Chapter 3, Problem 12DRQ
Explain how using a centered moving average with a length equal to the length of a season eliminates seasonality from a time series.
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What distinguishes seasonality from cycles in time series analysis?
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Professor Z needs to allocate time among several tasks next week to include time for students' appointments. Thus, he needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. He has gathered the following data:
Week Number of students6 Weeks ago 515 Weeks ago 794 Weeks ago 833 Weeks ago 892 Weeks ago 71Last Week 93
What is this week's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.3 , if the forecast for two weeks ago was 77 ?
a. 75.2
b. 78.8
c. 69.86
d. 80.54
Chapter 3 Solutions
EBK OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
Ch. 3.15 - Prob. 1.1RQCh. 3.15 - Prob. 1.2RQCh. 3.15 - Prob. 1.3RQCh. 3 - What are the main advantage that quantitative...Ch. 3 - What are some of the consequences of poor...Ch. 3 - List the specific weaknesses of each of these...Ch. 3 - Forecasts are generally wrong a. Why are forecasts...Ch. 3 - What is the purpose of establishing control limits...Ch. 3 - What factors would you consider in deciding...Ch. 3 - Contrast the use of MAD and MSE in evaluating...
Ch. 3 - What advantages as a forecasting tool does...Ch. 3 - How does the number of periods in a moving average...Ch. 3 - What factors enter into the choice of a value for...Ch. 3 - Prob. 11DRQCh. 3 - Explain how using a centered moving average with a...Ch. 3 - Contrast the terms sales and demand.Ch. 3 - Contrast the reactive and proactive approaches to...Ch. 3 - Explain how flexibility in production systems...Ch. 3 - How is forecasting in the context of a supply...Ch. 3 - Which type of forecasting approach, qualitative or...Ch. 3 - Prob. 18DRQCh. 3 - Choose the type of forecasting technique (survey,...Ch. 3 - Explain the trade-off between responsiveness and...Ch. 3 - Who needs to be involved in preparing forecasts?Ch. 3 - How has technology had an impact on forecasting?Ch. 3 - It has been said that forecasting using...Ch. 3 - What capability would an organization have to have...Ch. 3 - When a new business is started, or a patent idea...Ch. 3 - Discuss how you would manage a poor forecast.Ch. 3 - Omar has beard from some of his customers that...Ch. 3 - Give three examples of unethical conduct involving...Ch. 3 - A commercial baker, has recorded sales (in dozens)...Ch. 3 - National Scan, Inc., sells radio frequency...Ch. 3 - A dry cleaner uses exponential smoothing to...Ch. 3 - An electrical contractors records during the last...Ch. 3 - A cosmetics manufacturers marketing department has...Ch. 3 - Prob. 6PCh. 3 - Freight car loadings ova a 12-year period at a...Ch. 3 - Air travel on Mountain Airline for the past 18...Ch. 3 - a. Obtain the linear trend equation for the...Ch. 3 - After plotting demand for four periods, an...Ch. 3 - A manager of a store that sells and installs spas...Ch. 3 - The following equation summarizes the trend...Ch. 3 - Compute seasonal relatives for this data the SA...Ch. 3 - A tourist center is open on weekends (Friday,...Ch. 3 - The manager of a fashionable restaurant open...Ch. 3 - Obtain estimates of daily relatives for the number...Ch. 3 - A pharmacist has been monitoring sales of 2...Ch. 3 - New car sales for a dealer in Cook County,...Ch. 3 - The following table shows a tool and die companys...Ch. 3 - An analyst must decide between two different...Ch. 3 - Two different forecasting techniques (F1 and F2)...Ch. 3 - Two independent methods of forecasting based on...Ch. 3 - Long-Life Insurance has developed a linear model...Ch. 3 - Timely Transport provides local delivery service...Ch. 3 - The manager of a seafood restaurant was asked to...Ch. 3 - The following data were collected during a study...Ch. 3 - Lovely Lawns Inc., intends to use sales of lawn...Ch. 3 - The manager of a travel agency has been using a...Ch. 3 - Refer to the data in problem 22 a. Compute a...Ch. 3 - The classified department of a monthly magazine...Ch. 3 - A textbook publishing company has compiled data on...Ch. 3 - A manager has just receded an valuation from an...Ch. 3 - A manager uses this equation to predict demand for...Ch. 3 - A manager uses a trend equation plus quarterly...Ch. 3 - ML MANUFACTURING ML Manufacturing makes various...Ch. 3 - ML MANUFACTURING ML Manufacturing makes various...Ch. 3 - HIGHLINE FINANCIAL SERVICES, LTD. Highline...
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Need a deep-dive on the concept behind this application? Look no further. Learn more about this topic, operations-management and related others by exploring similar questions and additional content below.Similar questions
- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?arrow_forward4.33 Storrs Cycles has just started selling the new Cyclone mountain bike, with monthly sales as shown in the table. First, co-owner Bob Day wants to forecast by exponential smoothing by initially setting February's forecast equal to January's sales with a = .1. Co-owner Sherry Snyder wants to use a three-period moving average. %3D BOB'S ERROR SHERRY'S ERROR SALES BOB SHERRY JANUARY 400 FEBRUARY 380 400 MARCH 410 APRIL 375 MAY a) Is there a strong linear trend in sales over time? b) Fill in the table with what Bob and Sherry each forecast for May and the earlier months, as relevant. c) Assume that May's actual sales figure turns out to be 405. Complete the table's columns and then calculate the mean absolute deviation for both Bob's and Sherry's methods. d) Based on these calculations, which method seems more accurate? PXarrow_forwardThe accompanying dataset shows the monthly number of new car sales in the last two years. Implement the Holt-Winters multiplicative seasonality model with trend. Find the best combination of a, ß, and y to minimize MSE. a = 0.2, B = 1, y =0.2; a = 0.6, ß = 0.4, y = 0.6 E Click the icon to view the new car sales data. First find the MSE for each set of values, a, B, and y. (Round to the nearest whole number as needed.) MSE 0.2 1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.6arrow_forward
- What effect does the number of cycles in a moving average have on the forecast's responsiveness?arrow_forwardWhat are the advantages of exponential smoothing over the moving average and the weighted moving average?arrow_forwardQuantitative forecasting should be preferred over qualitative forecasting since they involve computations and are, therefore, more accurate. True Falsearrow_forward
- Generate forecasts for data with diff erent patterns, such as level, trend, and seasonality and cycles.arrow_forwardWhat benefits does exponential smoothing have over moving averages as a forecasting tool?arrow_forwardSince the beginning of the year, the purchase manager at a department store has been recording sales data to be used to compute 4-period moving averages to forecast sales for an upcoming month. Sales data for the months of January through September are reported in the table below. Month January February March April May June July August September Sales 21 20 39 22 29 14 42 28 27 Computed forecast values are not rounded. Compute the four-period moving average forecast for October. value as a whole number by rounding. Specify the Compute the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the four-period moving average forecasts. Specify the MAD as a whole number by rounding. Compute the mean squared error (MSE) for the four-period moving average forecasts. Specify the MSE as a whole number by rounding. Compute the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the four-period moving average forecasts. Specify the MAPE as a whole number by rounding. CHECK ANSWERarrow_forward
- How do exponential smoothing advantages have over moving averages as a forecasting tool?arrow_forwardMorning and evening temperature for four days is given below Day Morning Evening Monday 20 25 Tuesday 35 44 Wednesday 28 43 Thursday 29 48 Estimate the seasonal components for Morning and Evening assuming additive seasonal decomposition model with no trend.arrow_forwardTom Simpson, Director of the Chamber of Commerce for Exeter township is investigating the past ten years of tourist visits to the area. The following data has been gathered on number of tourists who signed into the local information center. Year Number of tourists 1 700 2 248 3 633 4 458 5 1410 6 1588 7 1629 8 1301 9 1455 10 1989 Tom is interested in implementing a forecasting system and is investigating the following forecasting methods as possibilities: calculate forecasts for Year 11 using the Regression method ( show formuals using excel)arrow_forward
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