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- Refer to page 3 for a problem on evaluating limits involving indeterminate forms using L'Hôpital's rule. Instructions: Apply L'Hôpital's rule rigorously. Show all derivatives and justify the steps leading to the solution. Link [https://drive.google.com/file/d/1wKSrun-GlxirS31Z9qo Hazb9tC440AZF/view?usp=sharing]arrow_forward3. Let {X} be an autoregressive process of order one, usually written as AR(1). (a) Write down an equation defining X₁ in terms of an autoregression coefficient a and a white noise process {} with variance σ². Explain what the phrase "{} is a white noise process with variance o?" means. (b) Derive expressions for the variance 70 and the autocorrelation function Pk, k 0,1,. of the {X} in terms of o2 and a. Use these expressions to suggest an estimate of a in terms of the sample autocor- relations {k}. (c) Suppose that only every second value of X is observed, resulting in a time series Y X2, t = 1, 2,.... Show that {Y} forms an AR(1) process. Find its autoregression coefficient, say d', and the variance of the underlying white noise process, in terms of a and o². (d) Given a time series data set X1, ..., X256 with sample mean = 9.23 and sample autocorrelations ₁ = -0.6, 2 = 0.36, 3 = -0.22, p = 0.13, 5 = -0.08, estimate the autoregression coefficients a and a' of {X} and {Y}.arrow_forward#8 (a) Find the equation of the tangent line to y = √x+3 at x=6 (b) Find the differential dy at y = √x +3 and evaluate it for x=6 and dx = 0.3arrow_forward
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- 1000 1500 2000 Quarterly sales of videos in the Leeds "Disney" store are shown in figure 1. Below is the code and output for an analysis of these data in R, with the sales data stored in the time series object X. Explain what is being done at points (i)-(iv) in the R code. Explain what is the difference between (v) and (vi) in the R code. Explain, giving reasons, which of (v) and (vi) is preferable. Write out the model with estimated parameters in full. (The relevant points in the R code are denoted #2#2#3#23 (i) #### etc.) Given that the sales for the four quarters of 2018 were 721, 935, 649, and 1071, use model-based forecasting to predict sales for the first quarter of 2019. (A point forecast is sufficient; you do not need to calculate a prediction interval.) Suggest one change to the fitted model which would improve the analysis. (You can assume that the choice of stochastic process at (v) in the R code is the correct one for these data.) 2010 2012 2014 Time 2016 Figure 1:…arrow_forward2. Let {X} be a moving average process of order q (usually written as MA(q)) defined on tЄ Z as where {et} is a white noise process with variance 1. (1) (a) Show that for any MA(1) process with B₁ 1 there exists another MA(1) pro- cess with the same autocorrelation function, and find the lag 1 moving average coefficient (say) of this process. (b) For an MA(2) process, equation (1) becomes X=&t+B₁et-1+ B2ɛt-2- (2) i. Define the backshift operator B, and write equation (2) in terms of a polyno- mial function B(B), giving a clear definition of this function. ii. Hence show that equation (2) can be written as an infinite order autoregressive process under certain conditions on B(B), clearly stating these conditions.arrow_forwardexplain the importance of the Hypothesis test in a business setting, and give an example of a situation where it is helpful in business decision making.arrow_forward
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