STATISTICS F/BUSINESS+ECONOMICS-TEXT
13th Edition
ISBN: 9781305881884
Author: Anderson
Publisher: CENGAGE L
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Chapter 21.4, Problem 16E
To save on expenses, Rona and Jerry agreed to form a carpool for traveling to and from work. Rona preferred to use the somewhat longer but more consistent Queen City Avenue. Although Jerry preferred the quicker expressway, he agreed with Rona that they should take Queen City Avenue if the expressway had a traffic jam. The following payoff table provides the one-way time estimate in minutes for traveling to and from work.
| State of Nature | ||
| Expressway Open | Expressway Jammed | |
| Decision Alternative | s1 | s2 |
| Queen City Avenue, d1 | 30 | 30 |
| Expressway, d2 | 25 | 45 |
Based on their experience with traffic problems, Rona and Jerry agreed on a .15
In addition, they agreed that weather seemed to affect the traffic conditions on the expressway. Let
C = clear
O = overcast
R = rain
The following conditional probabilities apply.
| P(C | s1) 5= .8 | P(O | s1) = .2 | P(R | s1) = .0 |
| P(C | s2) = .1 | P(O | s2) = .3 | P(R | s2) = .6 |
- a. Use Bayes’ theorem for probability revision to compute the probability of each weather condition and the conditional probability of the expressway open, s1, or jammed, s2, given each weather condition.
- b. Show the decision tree for this problem.
- c. W hat is the optimal decision strategy, and what is the expected travel time?
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A chef must decide how many chocolate lava cakes to prepare for the upcoming Mother's Day Dinner special. The chef can either prepare 50, 100, or 150 lava cakes. Assume that demand for the lava cakes can be 50, 100, or 150.
Each dish costs $5 to make and is priced at for $7 on the menu. Unsold cakes are donated to a nearby charity center. Assume that there is no opportunity cost for lost sales.
The cafe owner told the chef that in the past years, the probability that clients will order 50 cakes is 0.30; the probability they will order 100 cakes is 0.50, and the probability that they will order 150 cakes is 0.20.
Develop a complete decision tree for this problem.
A chef must decide how many chocolate lava cakes to prepare for the upcoming Mother's Day Dinner special. The chef can either prepare 50, 100, or 150 lava cakes. Assume that demand for the lava cakes can be 50, 100, or 150.
Each dish costs $5 to make and is priced at for $7 on the menu. Unsold cakes are donated to a nearby charity center. Assume that there is no opportunity cost for lost sales.
The cafe owner told the chef that in the past years, the probability that clients will order 50 cakes is 0.30; the probability they will order 100 cakes is 0.50, and the probability that they will order 150 cakes is 0.20.
What is the EVPI?
Chapter 21 Solutions
STATISTICS F/BUSINESS+ECONOMICS-TEXT
Ch. 21.2 - Prob. 1ECh. 21.2 - A decision maker faced with four decision...Ch. 21.2 - Hudson Corporation is considering three options...Ch. 21.2 - Myrtle Air Express decided to offer direct service...Ch. 21.2 - The distance from Potsdam to larger markets and...Ch. 21.2 - Seneca Hill Winery recently purchased land for the...Ch. 21.2 - The Lake Placid Town Council has decided to build...Ch. 21.3 - Consider a variation of the PDC decision tree...Ch. 21.3 - A real estate investor has the opportunity to...Ch. 21.3 - Dante Development Corporation is considering...
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