Statistics for Business & Economics, Revised (with XLSTAT Education Edition Printed Access Card)
13th Edition
ISBN: 9781337094160
Author: David R. Anderson, Dennis J. Sweeney, Thomas A. Williams, Jeffrey D. Camm, James J. Cochran
Publisher: Cengage Learning
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Chapter 21.3, Problem 13E
Lawson’s Department Store faces a buying decision for a seasonal product for which demand can be high, medium, or low. The purchaser for Lawson’s can order 1, 2, or 3 lots of the product before the season begins but cannot reorder later. Profit projections (in thousands of dollars) are shown.
- a. If the prior probabilities for the three states of nature are .3, .3, and .4, respectively, what is the recommended order quantity?
- b. At each preseason sales meeting, the vice president of sales provides a personal opinion regarding potential demand for this product. Because of the vice president’s enthusiasm and optimistic nature, the predictions of market conditions have always been either “excellent” (E) or “very good” (V). Probabilities are as follows. What is the optimal decision strategy?
| P(E) = .7 | P(s1 | E ) = .34 | P(s1 | V ) = .20 |
| P(V) = .3 | P(s2 | E ) = .32 | P(s2 | V) = .26 |
| P(s3 | E) = .34 | P(s3 | V) = .54 |
- c. Compute EVPI and EVSI. Discuss whether the firm should consider a consulting expert who could provide independent forecasts of market conditions for the product.
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Chapter 21 Solutions
Statistics for Business & Economics, Revised (with XLSTAT Education Edition Printed Access Card)
Ch. 21.2 - Prob. 1ECh. 21.2 - A decision maker faced with four decision...Ch. 21.2 - Hudson Corporation is considering three options...Ch. 21.2 - Myrtle Air Express decided to offer direct service...Ch. 21.2 - The distance from Potsdam to larger markets and...Ch. 21.2 - Seneca Hill Winery recently purchased land for the...Ch. 21.2 - The Lake Placid Town Council has decided to build...Ch. 21.3 - Consider a variation of the PDC decision tree...Ch. 21.3 - A real estate investor has the opportunity to...Ch. 21.3 - Dante Development Corporation is considering...
Ch. 21.3 - Hales TV Productions is considering producing a...Ch. 21.3 - Martins Service Station is considering entering...Ch. 21.3 - Lawsons Department Store faces a buying decision...Ch. 21.4 - Suppose that you are given a decision situation...Ch. 21.4 - In the following profit payoff table for a...Ch. 21.4 - To save on expenses, Rona and Jerry agreed to form...Ch. 21.4 - The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide...Ch. 21 - An investor wants to select one of seven mutual...Ch. 21 - Warren Lloyd is interested in leasing a new car...Ch. 21 - Hemmingway, Inc. is considering a 50 million...Ch. 21 - Embassy Publishing Company received a six-chapter...Ch. 21 - Lawsuit Defense Strategy John Campbell, an...
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