Chapter 21, Problem 44CTQ

The U.S. unemployment rate increased from $\text{4}.\text{6}\%$ in July $\text{2}00\text{1}$ to $\text{5}.\text{9}\%$ by June $\text{2}00\text{2}$.

Without studying the subject in any detail, would you expect that a change of this kind is more likely to be due to cyclical unemployment or a change in the natural rate of unemployment? My?