Operations and Supply Chain Management (Mcgraw-hill Education)
15th Edition
ISBN: 9781259666100
Author: F. Robert Jacobs, Richard B Chase
Publisher: McGraw-Hill Education
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Chapter 20, Problem 9PE
Summary Introduction
To determine: The number of trips that the firm needs to make to the supplier.
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Scenario
You have been given a task to create a demand forecast for the second year of sales of a premium outdoor grill.
Accurate forecasts are important for many reasons, including for the company to ensure they have the materials
they need to create the products required in a certain period of time. Your objective is to minimize the forecast
error, which will be measured using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) with a goal of being below 25%.
You have historical monthly sales data for the past year and access to software that provides forecasts based on
five different forecasting techniques (Naïve, 3-Month Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing for .2, Exponential
Smooth for .5, and Seasonal) to help determine the best forecast for that particular month. Based on the given
data, you will identify trends and patterns to create a more accurate forecast.
Approach
Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next…
Chapter 20 Solutions
Operations and Supply Chain Management (Mcgraw-hill Education)
Ch. 20 - Prob. 1DQCh. 20 - Distinguish between in-process inventory, safety...Ch. 20 - Discuss the nature of the costs that affect...Ch. 20 - Under which conditions would a plant manager elect...Ch. 20 - What two basic questions must be answered by an...Ch. 20 - Discuss the assumptions that are inherent in...Ch. 20 - Prob. 7DQCh. 20 -
Which type of inventory system would you use in...Ch. 20 - Prob. 9DQCh. 20 -
When cycle counting inventory, why do experts...
Ch. 20 - Prob. 1OQCh. 20 - Almost certainly you have seen vending machines...Ch. 20 - Prob. 3OQCh. 20 - Prob. 4OQCh. 20 - Prob. 5OQCh. 20 - Prob. 6OQCh. 20 - Wholemark is an Internet order business that sells...Ch. 20 - Prob. 8OQCh. 20 - Prob. 9OQCh. 20 - Prob. 10OQCh. 20 - Prob. 11OQCh. 20 - Ray’s Satellite Emporium wishes to determine the...Ch. 20 - Dunstreet’s Department Store would like to develop...Ch. 20 - Charlie’s Pizza orders all of its pepperoni,...Ch. 20 - Given the following information, formulate an...Ch. 20 - Lieutenant Commander Data is planning to make his...Ch. 20 - Jill’s Job Shop buys two parts (Tegdiws and...Ch. 20 - Demand for an item is 1,000 units per year. Each...Ch. 20 - The annual demand for a product is 15,600 units....Ch. 20 -
Daily demand for a product is 100 units, with a...Ch. 20 - Item X is a standard item stocked in a company’s...Ch. 20 - Annual demand for a product is 13,000 units;...Ch. 20 - Gentle Ben’s Bar and Restaurant uses 5,000 quart...Ch. 20 - Prob. 24OQCh. 20 - Daily demand for a product is 60 units with a...Ch. 20 - University Drug Pharmaceuticals orders its...Ch. 20 - Sarah’s Muffler Shop has one standard muffler that...Ch. 20 - Prob. 28OQCh. 20 - Prob. 29OQCh. 20 - It is your responsibility, as the new head of the...Ch. 20 - Prob. 31OQCh. 20 - A local service station is open 7 days per week,...Ch. 20 - Dave’s Auto Supply custom mixes paint for its...Ch. 20 - Prob. 34OQCh. 20 - Demand for a book at Amazon.com is 250 units per...Ch. 20 - Palin’s Muffler Shop has one standard muffler that...Ch. 20 - Daily demand for a certain product is normally...Ch. 20 - A particular raw material is available to a...Ch. 20 - CU, Incorporated (CUI), produces copper contacts...Ch. 20 - In the past, Taylor Industries has used a...Ch. 20 - Alpha Products, Inc., is having a problem trying...Ch. 20 - DAT, Inc., produces digital audiotapes to be used...Ch. 20 - Prob. 1AECh. 20 - Analytics Exercise: Inventory Management at...Ch. 20 - Analytics Exercise: Inventory Management at...Ch. 20 - Prob. 4AECh. 20 - Prob. 5AECh. 20 - Prob. 1PECh. 20 - Prob. 2PECh. 20 - Prob. 3PECh. 20 - Prob. 4PECh. 20 - Prob. 5PECh. 20 - Prob. 6PECh. 20 - Prob. 7PECh. 20 - Prob. 8PECh. 20 - Prob. 9PECh. 20 - Prob. 10PECh. 20 - Prob. 11PECh. 20 - Prob. 12PECh. 20 - Prob. 13PECh. 20 - Prob. 14PE
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- Approach Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next month. Remember to select the forecasting technique that produces the forecast error nearest to zero. For example: a. Naïve Forecast is 230 and the Forecast Error is -15. b. 3-Month Moving Forecast is 290 and the Forecast Error is -75. c. Exponential Smoothing Forecast for .2 is 308 and the Forecast Error is -93. d. Exponential Smoothing Forecast for .5 is 279 and the Forecast Error is -64. e. Seasonal Forecast is 297 and the Forecast Error is -82. The forecast for the next month would be 230 as the Naïve Forecast had the Forecast Error closest to zero with a -15. This forecasting technique was the best performing technique for that month. You do not need to do any external analysis-the forecast error for each strategy is already calculated for you in the tables below. Naïve Month Period Actual Demand Naïve Forecast Error 3- Month Moving Forecast 3- Month Moving…arrow_forwardScenario You have been given a task to create a demand forecast for the second year of sales of a premium outdoor grill. Accurate forecasts are important for many reasons, including for the company to ensure they have the materials they need to create the products required in a certain period of time. Your objective is to minimize the forecast error, which will be measured using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) with a goal of being below 25%. You have historical monthly sales data for the past year and access to software that provides forecasts based on five different forecasting techniques (Naïve, 3-Month Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing for .2, Exponential Smooth for .5, and Seasonal) to help determine the best forecast for that particular month. Based on the given data, you will identify trends and patterns to create a more accurate forecast. Approach Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next…arrow_forwardUse the internet to obtain crash safety ratings for passenger vehicles. Then, answer thesequestions:a. Which vehicles received the highest ratings? The lowest ratings?b. How important are crash-safety ratings to new car buyers? Does the degree of importancedepend on the circumstances of the buyer?c. Which types of buyers would you expect to be the most concerned with crash-safety ratings?d. Are there other features of a new car that might sway a buyer from focusing solely on crashsafety? If so, what might they be?arrow_forward
- “Implementing a Performance Management Communication Plan at Accounting, Inc.” Evaluate Accounting Inc.’s communication plan. Specifically, does it answer all of the questions that a good communication plan should answer? Which questions are left unanswered? How would you provide answers to the unanswered questions? “Implementing an Appeals Process at Accounting, Inc.” If you were to design an appeals process to handle these complaints well, what would be the appeal process? Describe the recommended process and why.arrow_forwardThe annual demand for water bottles at Mega Stores is 500 units, with an ordering cost of Rs. 200 per order. If the annual inventory holding cost is estimated to be 20%. of unit cost, how frequently should he replenish his stocks? Further, suppose the supplier offers him a discount on bulk ordering as given below. Can the manager reduce his costs by taking advantage of either of these discounts? Recommend the best ordering policy for the store. Order size Unit cost (Rs.) 1 – 49 pcs. 20.00 50 – 149 pcs. 19.50 150 – 299 pcs. 19.00 300 pcs. or more 18.00arrow_forwardHelp answer showing level work and formulasarrow_forward
- I need to forecast using a 3-Period-Moving-Average-Monthly forecasting model which I did but then I need to use my forecast numbers to generate a Master Production Schedule (MPS) I have to Start with actual sales (my own test data numbers) for August-2022 Oct-2022 i need to create MPS to supply demand starting November-2022 April 2023 I just added numbers without applying formulas to the mps on the right side of the spreadsheet because I do not know how to do it. The second image is the example of what it should look like. Thank You.arrow_forwardSolve the following Question 1. How do volume and variety affect the process selection and layout types? Discuss 2. How is the human resource aspect important to operation function? Discuss 3. Discuss the supply network design and its impact on the overall performance of the organization.arrow_forwardHelp with question?arrow_forward
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