EBK OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
14th Edition
ISBN: 9781260718447
Author: Stevenson
Publisher: MCG COURSE
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Chapter 2, Problem 1.5CQ
Summary Introduction
Introduction:
A baking company situated in New York employs fewer than 200 blue collar employees which has informal atmosphere. The company produces soft cookies over 50 varieties. The company has niche segment of customers promising high quality biscuits. Most of the patrons are over the age of 45 and prefer soft and non-sugary cookies.
The production process begins as soon as the management gets the order from its distributors. The production follows batch processing system. The list of cookies to be made is fed into the system by the personnel in charge and the system evaluates the quantity of ingredients to be mixed. The process is followed by a giant machine where additional products are mixed, baked, cooled and tested to check the quality. Finally the cookies are boxed and labeled automatically.
The manufactured cookies are shipped instantaneously due to the perishable nature. The cookies are tested for its quality by a testing inspector. X-ray test is also done to detect the existence of any foreign materials inside the cookies.
The company takes extra care to reduce the scrap formation and gets inputs from its customer for further potential developments.
To determine: The quality aspects which a customer considers to buy a cookie in a supermarket.
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Scenario
You have been given a task to create a demand forecast for the second year of sales of a premium outdoor grill.
Accurate forecasts are important for many reasons, including for the company to ensure they have the materials
they need to create the products required in a certain period of time. Your objective is to minimize the forecast
error, which will be measured using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) with a goal of being below 25%.
You have historical monthly sales data for the past year and access to software that provides forecasts based on
five different forecasting techniques (Naïve, 3-Month Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing for .2, Exponential
Smooth for .5, and Seasonal) to help determine the best forecast for that particular month. Based on the given
data, you will identify trends and patterns to create a more accurate forecast.
Approach
Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next…
Approach
Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next
month.
Remember to select the forecasting technique that produces the forecast error nearest to zero. For example:
a. Naïve Forecast is 230 and the Forecast Error is -15.
b. 3-Month Moving Forecast is 290 and the Forecast Error is -75.
c. Exponential Smoothing Forecast for .2 is 308 and the Forecast Error is -93.
d. Exponential Smoothing Forecast for .5 is 279 and the Forecast Error is -64.
e. Seasonal Forecast is 297 and the Forecast Error is -82.
The forecast for the next month would be 230 as the Naïve Forecast had the Forecast Error closest to zero with a
-15. This forecasting technique was the best performing technique for that month. You do not need to do any
external analysis-the forecast error for each strategy is already calculated for you in the tables below.
Naïve
Month Period
Actual
Demand
Naïve Forecast
Error
3-
Month
Moving
Forecast
3-
Month
Moving…
Chapter 2 Solutions
EBK OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
Ch. 2.7 - Prob. 1.1RQCh. 2.7 - Prob. 1.2RQCh. 2.7 - Prob. 1.3RQCh. 2.7 - Prob. 2.1RQCh. 2.7 - Prob. 2.2RQCh. 2 - Prob. 1DRQCh. 2 - List the key ways that organizations compete.Ch. 2 - Prob. 3DRQCh. 2 - Prob. 4DRQCh. 2 - Prob. 5DRQ
Ch. 2 - Contrast the terms strategies and tactics.Ch. 2 - Contrast Organization and operations strategy.Ch. 2 - Prob. 8DRQCh. 2 - Prob. 9DRQCh. 2 - Prob. 10DRQCh. 2 - Prob. 11DRQCh. 2 - Prob. 12DRQCh. 2 - Prob. 13DRQCh. 2 - Prob. 14DRQCh. 2 - Prob. 15DRQCh. 2 - Who needs to be involved in formulating...Ch. 2 - Prob. 2TSCh. 2 - Prob. 3TSCh. 2 - Prob. 1CTECh. 2 - Prob. 2CTECh. 2 - Prob. 3CTECh. 2 - Prob. 4CTECh. 2 - Prob. 5CTECh. 2 - Prob. 1PCh. 2 - Prob. 2PCh. 2 - Prob. 3PCh. 2 - Prob. 4PCh. 2 - Prob. 5PCh. 2 - Prob. 6PCh. 2 - Prob. 7PCh. 2 - Prob. 8PCh. 2 - A company offers ID theft protection wing leads...Ch. 2 - Prob. 1.1CQCh. 2 - Prob. 1.2CQCh. 2 - Prob. 1.3CQCh. 2 - Prob. 1.4CQCh. 2 - Prob. 1.5CQCh. 2 - Prob. 1.6CQCh. 2 - Prob. 1.7CQCh. 2 - Prob. 2.1CQCh. 2 - Prob. 2.2CQCh. 2 - Prob. 2.3CQCh. 2 - Prob. 3.1CQCh. 2 - After a recent storm, a customer called in a...Ch. 2 - Prob. 3.3CQCh. 2 - Prob. 1OTQCh. 2 - Prob. 2OTQCh. 2 - Prob. 3OTQCh. 2 - Prob. 4OTQCh. 2 - Prob. 5OTQCh. 2 - Prob. 6OTQCh. 2 - Prob. 7OTQ
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