PRICIPLES OF MACROECONOMICS
PRICIPLES OF MACROECONOMICS
8th Edition
ISBN: 9781337761598
Author: Mankiw
Publisher: CENGAGE L
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Chapter 18.1, Problem 1QQ
To determine

Define net export and net capital outflow.

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In a classic oil-drilling example, you are trying to decide whether to drill for oil on a field that might or might not contain any oil. Before making this decision, you have the option of hiring a geologist to perform some seismic tests and then predict whether there is any oil or not. You assess that if there is actually oil, the geologist will predict there is oil with probability 0.85 . You also assess that if there is no oil, the geologist will predict there is no oil with probability 0.90. Please answer the two questions below, as I am trying to ensure that I am correct.  1. Why will these two probabilities not appear on the decision tree? 2. Which probabilities will be on the decision tree?
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