Macroeconomics: Private and Public Choice (MindTap Course List)
Macroeconomics: Private and Public Choice (MindTap Course List)
16th Edition
ISBN: 9781305506756
Author: James D. Gwartney, Richard L. Stroup, Russell S. Sobel, David A. Macpherson
Publisher: Cengage Learning
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Chapter 16, Problem 14CQ
To determine

Describe the response of an economist based on rapid growth and high income levels.

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In a classic oil-drilling example, you are trying to decide whether to drill for oil on a field that might or might not contain any oil. Before making this decision, you have the option of hiring a geologist to perform some seismic tests and then predict whether there is any oil or not. You assess that if there is actually oil, the geologist will predict there is oil with probability 0.85 . You also assess that if there is no oil, the geologist will predict there is no oil with probability 0.90. Please answer the two questions below, as I am trying to ensure that I am correct.  1. Why will these two probabilities not appear on the decision tree? 2. Which probabilities will be on the decision tree?
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