OPERATION MANAGEMENT
2nd Edition
ISBN: 9781260242423
Author: CACHON
Publisher: MCG
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Chapter 15, Problem 8CQ
Summary Introduction
To explain: The effect of statistical noise on the naïve forecast.
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Let's say you are playing the stock market and below period 2020 data was provided. For "stock A" you use a 2 month moving
average. For "stock B" you use exponential smoothing with (a = 0.3).
What is the Forecast in Stock B for January 2021?
Stock A
Stock B
...
Jan
0.11
Jan
14
Feb
0.20
Feb
11
Mar
0.03
Mar
Apr
May
1.20
Apr
May
6.
0.50
9
Jun
0.03
Jun
12
Jul
0.10
Jul
16
Aug
0.11
Aug
Sep
14
Sep
0.56
8
Oct
0.78
Oct
Nov
0.44
Nov
4
Dec
0.10
Dec
The most naive forecast can is quite valuable in leading to an organization’s success because it is most widely understood by senior managers. True or False
a. What is your forecast for December of Year 4, making period 1 as the starting period for the regression?
b. The actual demand for period 48 was just learned to be 5,100. Add this demand to the Inputs file and change the starting period for the regression to period 2 so that the number of periods in the regression remains unchanged. How much or little does the forecast for period 49 change from the one for period 48? The error measures? Are you surprised?c. Now change the time when the regression starts to period 25 and repeat the process. What differences do you note now? What forecast will you make for period 49?
Chapter 15 Solutions
OPERATION MANAGEMENT
Ch. 15 - When creating a time seriesbased forecast for the...Ch. 15 - Prob. 2CQCh. 15 - Prob. 3CQCh. 15 - Prob. 4CQCh. 15 - Prob. 5CQCh. 15 - Prob. 6CQCh. 15 - Prob. 7CQCh. 15 - Prob. 8CQCh. 15 - Using the moving average forecast, is it possible...Ch. 15 - Prob. 10CQ
Ch. 15 - Prob. 11CQCh. 15 - Prob. 12CQCh. 15 - Prob. 13CQCh. 15 - Deseasonalizing old demand data is the process of...Ch. 15 - Prob. 15CQCh. 15 - Prob. 1PACh. 15 - Prob. 2PACh. 15 - Prob. 3PACh. 15 - A police station had to deploy police officers for...Ch. 15 - MyApp is a small but growing startup that sees...Ch. 15 - Prob. 6PACh. 15 - Prob. 7PACh. 15 - Prob. 1CCh. 15 - CASE INTERNATIONAL ARRIVALS The U.S. Department of...Ch. 15 - Prob. 3C
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