OPERATION MANAGEMENT
2nd Edition
ISBN: 9781260242423
Author: CACHON
Publisher: MCG
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Chapter 15, Problem 3CQ
Summary Introduction
To identify: The type of
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A pizza chain wants to forecast the demand rate for each store for each hour in the day.What type of forecasting method is it most likely to deploy?a. Automated forecastingb. Expert panel forecastingc. Weather forecastingd. Macroeconomic forecasting
PLEASE CHOOSE ONE ANSWER AND CLARIFY THE CHOICE
A quantitative forecasting class assumes that sales (or other items to be forecast) follow a repetitive pattern over time. When a retailer uses daily sales of each product to identify patterns and to forecast inventory requirements, this is an example of:
A::a deterministic model
B::a causal model
C::a time series forecasting technique
D::a qualitative model
“A” items are high-dollar value items which represent a small portion (usually 10-20 percent) of requisitions, purchase orders, and inventory items, but a large portion of annual spend (usually 70-80 percent). “A” items in ABC analysis are:
A::reviewed infrequently
B::normally carried in large quantities
C::stored in a relatively insecure warehouse
D::particularly critical in financial terms
Decoupling inventories are carried __________________________________. The amounts and locations of raw material, work-in-process, and finished goods decoupling inventories depend on…
What method would you choose of forecasting technique, which requires subjective inputs
obtained from various sources and are analyzed?
O a. Judgmental forecasting method
O b. Statistical forecasting method
O c. Associative model
O d. Time series forecasting method
Chapter 15 Solutions
OPERATION MANAGEMENT
Ch. 15 - When creating a time seriesbased forecast for the...Ch. 15 - Prob. 2CQCh. 15 - Prob. 3CQCh. 15 - Prob. 4CQCh. 15 - Prob. 5CQCh. 15 - Prob. 6CQCh. 15 - Prob. 7CQCh. 15 - Prob. 8CQCh. 15 - Using the moving average forecast, is it possible...Ch. 15 - Prob. 10CQ
Ch. 15 - Prob. 11CQCh. 15 - Prob. 12CQCh. 15 - Prob. 13CQCh. 15 - Deseasonalizing old demand data is the process of...Ch. 15 - Prob. 15CQCh. 15 - Prob. 1PACh. 15 - Prob. 2PACh. 15 - Prob. 3PACh. 15 - A police station had to deploy police officers for...Ch. 15 - MyApp is a small but growing startup that sees...Ch. 15 - Prob. 6PACh. 15 - Prob. 7PACh. 15 - Prob. 1CCh. 15 - CASE INTERNATIONAL ARRIVALS The U.S. Department of...Ch. 15 - Prob. 3C
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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?arrow_forwardThe file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.arrow_forwardThe Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?arrow_forward
- The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?arrow_forwardThe file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building materials (which includes retail sales of building materials, hardware and garden supply stores, and mobile home dealers). a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?arrow_forwardThe file P13_28.xlsx contains monthly retail sales of U.S. liquor stores. a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?arrow_forward
- The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number of airline tickets sold by the CareFree Travel Agency. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b?arrow_forwardThe file P13_02.xlsx contains five years of monthly data on sales (number of units sold) for a particular company. The company suspects that except for random noise, its sales are growing by a constant percentage each month and will continue to do so for at least the near future. a. Explain briefly whether the plot of the series visually supports the companys suspicion. b. By what percentage are sales increasing each month? c. What is the MAPE for the forecast model in part b? In words, what does it measure? Considering its magnitude, does the model seem to be doing a good job? d. In words, how does the model make forecasts for future months? Specifically, given the forecast value for the last month in the data set, what simple arithmetic could you use to obtain forecasts for the next few months?arrow_forwardThe owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?arrow_forward
- You manager gave you February 2021 actual sales and sales forecast. This is the only raw data you have access to. Which of the following is the most appropriate technique for forecasting March 2021's sales? a.Simple moving average b.Exponential smoothing c.Causal relationship forecasting d.Simple linear regression e.Weighted moving averagearrow_forwardWhich type of industries would make the most use of short-range forecasts? Which would make the most use of medium-range forecasts? Which would make the most use of long-range forecasts? Why?arrow_forwardStationarity in a time Series refers to A.) The size of the RMSE of a Forecasting model B) the size of Variances of the model's estimates C) a method of forecast optimization D) lack of trend in a given time Series E) None of the options are correct.arrow_forward
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