APPLIED STAT.IN BUS.+ECONOMICS
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781259957598
Author: DOANE
Publisher: RENT MCG
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Chapter 14.5, Problem 7SE
(a) Make an Excel line graph of the following bond yield data. Describe the pattern. Is there a consistent trend? (b) Perform exponential smoothing with α = .20. Use both methods A and B to initialize the forecast. Record the statistics of fit. (c) Do the smoothing again with α = .10 and then with α = .30, recording the statistics of fit. (d) Compare the statistics of fit for the three values of α. (e) Make a one-period forecast (i.e., t = 53) using each of the three α values. How did α affect your forecasts?
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X
3.29 The quarterly revenues of a small medical supply company for the last
several years (27 quarters) were plotted and seen to have a roughly linear
trend component. The information below was computed for y₁. Y₂.....
Y27 using one of the company's spreadsheet computer programs.
t=1,2,..., 27
y, quarterly gross revenues ($10,000)
Σ y = 7,146 3ty w 113,615
SS-120,640
a. Using the method of least squares, fit a linear trend model to the
revenue data.
b. Test for significance of the trend component assuming indepen-
dent, normally distributed error terms.
c. Forecast revenues for t= 28 and t = 29 using the model fit in part
(a).
d. Construct 95% prediction intervals for y28 and Y29-
e. Construct 90% prediction intervals for y2a and Y20
Monthly sales have been found to follow a linear trend of y = 10 + 8x, where y is the number of items sold and x is the number of the month. Monthly deviations from the trend have been calculated and follow an additive model. In month 12, the seasonal variation is estimated to be -6.
What is the forecasted number of items to be sold in month 12?
What is the forecast, including both trend and seasonality, for the fourth quarter of
2021.
The regression equation is Y = 507.20 + 23X. X is for time period with time period 1
being first quarter 2021.
The seasonal index is: 1QT = 0.76, 2QT = 1.20, 3QT = 0.68
(Please keep 2 decimal for your answer)
Your Answer:
Answer
forrect order.
Chapter 14 Solutions
APPLIED STAT.IN BUS.+ECONOMICS
Ch. 14.2 - (a) Make an Excel graph of the data on the number...Ch. 14.2 - Prob. 3SECh. 14.2 - Prob. 4SECh. 14.2 - Prob. 5SECh. 14.4 - (a) Make an Excel line graph of the exchange rate...Ch. 14.5 - (a) Make an Excel line graph of the following bond...Ch. 14 - Explain the difference between (a) stocks and...Ch. 14 - (a) What is periodicity? (b) Give original...Ch. 14 - (a) What are the distinguishing features of each...Ch. 14 - Name four criteria for assessing a trend forecast.
Ch. 14 - Name two advantages and two disadvantages of each...Ch. 14 - When would the exponential trend model be...Ch. 14 - Explain how to obtain the compound percent growth...Ch. 14 - (a) When might a quadratic model be useful? (b)...Ch. 14 - Name five measures of fit for a trend, and state...Ch. 14 - Prob. 10CRCh. 14 - Prob. 11CRCh. 14 - Prob. 12CRCh. 14 - (a) Why is seasonality irrelevant for annual data?...Ch. 14 - Prob. 14CRCh. 14 - (a) Explain how seasonal binaries can be used to...Ch. 14 - What is the purpose of index numbers?Ch. 14 - (a) Make a line chart for JetBlues revenue. (b)...Ch. 14 - (a) Plot both Swiss watch time series on the same...Ch. 14 - (a) Make a line graph of the U.S. civilian labor...Ch. 14 - (a) Plot the voter participation rate. (b)...Ch. 14 - For each of the following fitted trends, make a...Ch. 14 - (a) Make a line graph of consumer credit...Ch. 14 - (a) Plot the data on U.S. general aviation...Ch. 14 - Prob. 17CECh. 14 - (a) Plot either receipts and outlays or federal...Ch. 14 - Prob. 19CECh. 14 - (a) Plot the data on leisure and hospitality...Ch. 14 - Prob. 21CECh. 14 - Prob. 22CECh. 14 - (a) Plot the data on skier/snowboard visits. (b)...Ch. 14 - Prob. 24CECh. 14 - (a) Plot U.S. petroleum imports on a graph. (b)...Ch. 14 - (a) Make a line chart and fit an m-period moving...Ch. 14 - Refer to exercise 14.26. (a) Plot the dollar/pound...Ch. 14 - (a) Plot the data on natural gas bills. (b) Can...Ch. 14 - (a) Plot the data on air travel delays. (b) Can...Ch. 14 - (a) Plot the data on airplane shipments. (b) Can...Ch. 14 - (a) Plot the data on revolving credit (credit...Ch. 14 - The following seasonal regression was fitted with...Ch. 14 - The following seasonal regression was fitted with...
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