APPLIED STAT.IN BUS.+ECONOMICS
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781259957598
Author: DOANE
Publisher: RENT MCG
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Chapter 14, Problem 22CE
a.
To determine
Plot the data on lightning deaths.
b.
To determine
Describe the pattern and discuss possible causes.
c.
To determine
Fit an exponential trend to the data and interpret the fitted equation.
d.
To determine
Make a forecast for 2020, using any trend model. Also explain the basis for the forecast.
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(c) Because logistic regression predicts probabilities of outcomes, observations used to build a logistic regression model need not be independent.
A. false: all observations must be independent
B. true
C. false: only observations with the same outcome need to be independent
I ANSWERED: A. false: all observations must be independent.
(This was marked wrong but I have no idea why. Isn't this a basic assumption of logistic regression)
Business discuss
Spam filters are built on principles similar to those used in logistic regression. We fit a probability that each message is spam or not spam. We have several variables for each email. Here are a few: to_multiple=1 if there are multiple recipients, winner=1 if the word 'winner' appears in the subject line, format=1 if the email is poorly formatted, re_subj=1 if "re" appears in the subject line. A logistic model was fit to a dataset with the following output:
Estimate
SE
Z
Pr(>|Z|)
(Intercept)
-0.8161
0.086
-9.4895
0
to_multiple
-2.5651
0.3052
-8.4047
0
winner
1.5801
0.3156
5.0067
0
format
-0.1528
0.1136
-1.3451
0.1786
re_subj
-2.8401
0.363
-7.824
0
(a) Write down the model using the coefficients from the model fit.log_odds(spam) = -0.8161 + -2.5651 + to_multiple + 1.5801 winner + -0.1528 format + -2.8401 re_subj(b) Suppose we have an observation where to_multiple=0, winner=1, format=0, and re_subj=0. What is the predicted probability that this message is spam?…
Chapter 14 Solutions
APPLIED STAT.IN BUS.+ECONOMICS
Ch. 14.2 - (a) Make an Excel graph of the data on the number...Ch. 14.2 - Prob. 3SECh. 14.2 - Prob. 4SECh. 14.2 - Prob. 5SECh. 14.4 - (a) Make an Excel line graph of the exchange rate...Ch. 14.5 - (a) Make an Excel line graph of the following bond...Ch. 14 - Explain the difference between (a) stocks and...Ch. 14 - (a) What is periodicity? (b) Give original...Ch. 14 - (a) What are the distinguishing features of each...Ch. 14 - Name four criteria for assessing a trend forecast.
Ch. 14 - Name two advantages and two disadvantages of each...Ch. 14 - When would the exponential trend model be...Ch. 14 - Explain how to obtain the compound percent growth...Ch. 14 - (a) When might a quadratic model be useful? (b)...Ch. 14 - Name five measures of fit for a trend, and state...Ch. 14 - Prob. 10CRCh. 14 - Prob. 11CRCh. 14 - Prob. 12CRCh. 14 - (a) Why is seasonality irrelevant for annual data?...Ch. 14 - Prob. 14CRCh. 14 - (a) Explain how seasonal binaries can be used to...Ch. 14 - What is the purpose of index numbers?Ch. 14 - (a) Make a line chart for JetBlues revenue. (b)...Ch. 14 - (a) Plot both Swiss watch time series on the same...Ch. 14 - (a) Make a line graph of the U.S. civilian labor...Ch. 14 - (a) Plot the voter participation rate. (b)...Ch. 14 - For each of the following fitted trends, make a...Ch. 14 - (a) Make a line graph of consumer credit...Ch. 14 - (a) Plot the data on U.S. general aviation...Ch. 14 - Prob. 17CECh. 14 - (a) Plot either receipts and outlays or federal...Ch. 14 - Prob. 19CECh. 14 - (a) Plot the data on leisure and hospitality...Ch. 14 - Prob. 21CECh. 14 - Prob. 22CECh. 14 - (a) Plot the data on skier/snowboard visits. (b)...Ch. 14 - Prob. 24CECh. 14 - (a) Plot U.S. petroleum imports on a graph. (b)...Ch. 14 - (a) Make a line chart and fit an m-period moving...Ch. 14 - Refer to exercise 14.26. (a) Plot the dollar/pound...Ch. 14 - (a) Plot the data on natural gas bills. (b) Can...Ch. 14 - (a) Plot the data on air travel delays. (b) Can...Ch. 14 - (a) Plot the data on airplane shipments. (b) Can...Ch. 14 - (a) Plot the data on revolving credit (credit...Ch. 14 - The following seasonal regression was fitted with...Ch. 14 - The following seasonal regression was fitted with...
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