Practical Management Science
Practical Management Science
5th Edition
ISBN: 9781305250901
Author: Wayne L. Winston, S. Christian Albright
Publisher: Cengage Learning
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Chapter 14, Problem 42P

a)

Summary Introduction

To forecast: The consumer revolving credit using credit unions.

Introduction: Forecasting is a technique of predicting future events based on historical data and projecting them into the future with a mathematical model. Forecasting may be an intuitive or subjective prediction.

b)

Summary Introduction

To determine: The method that would provide better forecasting.

Introduction: Forecasting is a technique of predicting future events based on historical data and projecting them into the future with a mathematical model. Forecasting may be an intuitive or subjective prediction.

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The Samuel Bridge Company wants to compare the accuracy of three methods that it has used to forecast yearly demand. Forecasts of yearly demand from 2018 through 2020 are shown below against the actual productions. Comment on their forecast accuracy by using MSE criterion. Actual Method A Method B Method C Demand forecasts forecasts forecasts Year (million) (million) (million) (million) 2018 11 12 7 2019 12 9. 10 13 2020 13 10 9. 12 Method A is the most accurate one with MSEA=9 Method B is the most accurate one with MSEB=5 Method B is the most accurate one with MSEB=6 Method C is the most accurate one with MSEC=6 Method A is the most accurate one with MSEA=5
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