Applied Statistics in Business and Economics
5th Edition
ISBN: 9781259329050
Author: DOANE
Publisher: MCG
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Chapter 13, Problem 14ERQ
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3. Bayesian Inference – Updating Beliefs
A medical test for a rare disease has the following characteristics:
Sensitivity (true positive rate): 99%
Specificity (true negative rate): 98%
The disease occurs in 0.5% of the population.
A patient receives a positive test result.
Questions:
a) Define the relevant events and use Bayes’ Theorem to compute the probability that the patient actually has the disease.b) Explain why the result might seem counterintuitive, despite the high sensitivity and specificity.c) Discuss how prior probabilities influence posterior beliefs in Bayesian inference.d) Suppose a second, independent test with the same accuracy is conducted and is also positive. Update the probability that the patient has the disease.
4. Linear Regression - Model Assumptions and Interpretation
A real estate analyst is studying how house prices (Y) are related to house size in square feet (X). A simple
linear regression model is proposed:
The analyst fits the model and obtains:
•
Ŷ50,000+150X
YBoB₁X + €
•
R² = 0.76
• Residuals show a fan-shaped pattern when plotted against fitted values.
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a) Interpret the slope coefficient in context.
b) Explain what the R² value tells us about the model's performance.
c) Based on the residual pattern, what regression assumption is likely violated? What might be the
consequence?
d) Suggest at least two remedies to improve the model, based on the residual analysis.
5. Probability Distributions – Continuous Random Variables
A factory machine produces metal rods whose lengths (in cm) follow a continuous uniform distribution on the interval [98, 102].
Questions:
a) Define the probability density function (PDF) of the rod length.b) Calculate the probability that a randomly selected rod is shorter than 99 cm.c) Determine the expected value and variance of rod lengths.d) If a sample of 25 rods is selected, what is the probability that their average length is between 99.5 cm and 100.5 cm? Justify your answer using the appropriate distribution.
Chapter 13 Solutions
Applied Statistics in Business and Economics
Ch. 13.1 - Observations are taken on net revenue from sales...Ch. 13.1 - Observations are taken on sales of a certain...Ch. 13.1 - Prob. 3SECh. 13.1 - A regression model to predict Y, the...Ch. 13.2 - Refer to the ANOVA table below. (a) State the...Ch. 13.2 - Refer to the ANOVA table below. (a) State the...Ch. 13.2 - Prob. 7SECh. 13.2 - Refer to the ANOVA table below. (a) State the...Ch. 13.3 - Observations are taken on net revenue from sales...Ch. 13.3 - Observations are taken on sales of a certain...
Ch. 13.3 - Prob. 11SECh. 13.3 - A regression model to predict Y, the state...Ch. 13.4 - A regression of accountants starting salaries in a...Ch. 13.4 - An agribusiness performed a regression of wheat...Ch. 13.5 - Prob. 15SECh. 13.5 - A regression model to predict the price of...Ch. 13.5 - Prob. 17SECh. 13.5 - Prob. 18SECh. 13.6 - Prob. 19SECh. 13.6 - Prob. 20SECh. 13.7 - Prob. 21SECh. 13.7 - Using the Metals data, construct a correlation...Ch. 13.8 - Prob. 23SECh. 13.8 - Which violations of regression assumptions, if...Ch. 13 - (a) List two limitations of simple regression. (b)...Ch. 13 - (a) What does represent in the regression model?...Ch. 13 - Prob. 3CRCh. 13 - Prob. 4CRCh. 13 - Prob. 5CRCh. 13 - Prob. 6CRCh. 13 - Prob. 7CRCh. 13 - Prob. 8CRCh. 13 - Prob. 9CRCh. 13 - (a) State the formula for the standard error of...Ch. 13 - (a) What is a categorical predictor? (b) Why is a...Ch. 13 - Prob. 12CRCh. 13 - Prob. 13CRCh. 13 - (a) What is multicollinearity? (b) What are its...Ch. 13 - Prob. 15CRCh. 13 - (a) State the formula for a variance inflation...Ch. 13 - Prob. 17CRCh. 13 - Prob. 18CRCh. 13 - Prob. 19CRCh. 13 - Prob. 20CRCh. 13 - (a) Name two ways to detect autocorrelated...Ch. 13 - (a) What is a lurking variable? How might it be...Ch. 13 - Instructions for Data Sets: Choose one of the data...Ch. 13 - Note: Exercises marked are based on optional...Ch. 13 - Prob. 27CECh. 13 - Note: Exercises marked are based on optional...Ch. 13 - Note: Exercises marked are based on optional...Ch. 13 - Prob. 30CECh. 13 - Prob. 31CECh. 13 - Prob. 32CECh. 13 - Prob. 33CECh. 13 - Prob. 34CECh. 13 - Prob. 35CECh. 13 - Note: Exercises marked are based on optional...Ch. 13 - Note: Exercises marked are based on optional...Ch. 13 - Note: Exercises marked are based on optional...Ch. 13 - Prob. 39CECh. 13 - Prob. 40CECh. 13 - Prob. 41CECh. 13 - In a model of Fords quarterly revenue TotalRevenue...Ch. 13 - In a study of paint peel problems, a regression...Ch. 13 - A hospital emergency room analyzed n = 17,664...Ch. 13 - Prob. 45CECh. 13 - A researcher used stepwise regression to create...Ch. 13 - A sports enthusiast created an equation to predict...Ch. 13 - An expert witness in a case of alleged racial...Ch. 13 - Prob. 50CECh. 13 - Prob. 51CECh. 13 - Prob. 52CECh. 13 - Which statement is correct concerning one-factor...Ch. 13 - Prob. 2ERQCh. 13 - Prob. 3ERQCh. 13 - Prob. 4ERQCh. 13 - Prob. 5ERQCh. 13 - Prob. 6ERQCh. 13 - Prob. 7ERQCh. 13 - Prob. 8ERQCh. 13 - Prob. 9ERQCh. 13 - Prob. 10ERQCh. 13 - Prob. 11ERQCh. 13 - Prob. 12ERQCh. 13 - Prob. 13ERQCh. 13 - Prob. 14ERQCh. 13 - Prob. 15ERQ
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