Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781337671989
Author: WINSTON
Publisher: Cengage
expand_more
expand_more
format_list_bulleted
Concept explainers
Videos
Textbook Question
Chapter 11.3, Problem 20P
Based on Kelly (1956). You currently have $100. Each week you can invest any amount of money you currently have in a risky investment. With probability 0.4, the amount you invest is tripled (e.g., if you invest $100, you increase your asset position by $300), and, with probability 0.6, the amount you invest is lost. Consider the following investment strategies:
- Each week, invest 10% of your money.
- Each week, invest 30% of your money.
- Each week, invest 50% of your money.
Use @RISK to simulate 100 weeks of each strategy 1000 times. Which strategy appears to be best in terms of the maximum growth rate? (In general, if you can multiply your investment by M with probability p and lose your investment with probability q = 1 − p, you should invest a fraction [p(M − 1) − q]/(M − 1) of your money each week. This strategy maximizes the expected growth rate of your fortune and is known as the Kelly criterion.) (Hint: If an initial wealth of I dollars grows to F dollars in 100 weeks, the weekly growth rate, labeled r, satisfies F = (I + r)100, so that r = (F/I)1/100 − 1.)
Expert Solution & Answer
Trending nowThis is a popular solution!
Students have asked these similar questions
A copy machine is available 24 hours a day. On a typical day, the machine produces 100 jobs. Each job takes about 3 minutes on the machine, 2 minutes of which is processing time and 1 minute is setup time (logging in, defining the job). About 20 percent of the jobs need to be reworked, in which case the setup time and the processing time have to be repeated. The remainder of the time, the equipment is idle. What is the OEE of the equipment?
How do you think we can keep updating Toyota's ideas as new technologies come out and what customers want keeps changing?
Given how TPS has helped change things in so many fields, do you think there are parts of it that might be hard to use in areas that aren’t about making things, like in healthcare or services? If so, why do you think that might be?
Chapter 11 Solutions
Practical Management Science
Ch. 11.2 - If the number of competitors in Example 11.1...Ch. 11.2 - In Example 11.1, the possible profits vary from...Ch. 11.2 - Referring to Example 11.1, if the average bid for...Ch. 11.2 - See how sensitive the results in Example 11.2 are...Ch. 11.2 - In Example 11.2, the gamma distribution was used...Ch. 11.2 - Prob. 6PCh. 11.2 - In Example 11.3, suppose you want to run five...Ch. 11.2 - In Example 11.3, if a batch fails to pass...Ch. 11.3 - Rerun the new car simulation from Example 11.4,...Ch. 11.3 - Rerun the new car simulation from Example 11.4,...
Ch. 11.3 - In the cash balance model from Example 11.5, the...Ch. 11.3 - Prob. 12PCh. 11.3 - Prob. 13PCh. 11.3 - The simulation output from Example 11.6 indicates...Ch. 11.3 - Prob. 15PCh. 11.3 - Referring to the retirement example in Example...Ch. 11.3 - A European put option allows an investor to sell a...Ch. 11.3 - Prob. 18PCh. 11.3 - Prob. 19PCh. 11.3 - Based on Kelly (1956). You currently have 100....Ch. 11.3 - Amanda has 30 years to save for her retirement. At...Ch. 11.3 - In the financial world, there are many types of...Ch. 11.3 - Suppose you currently have a portfolio of three...Ch. 11.3 - If you own a stock, buying a put option on the...Ch. 11.3 - Prob. 25PCh. 11.3 - Prob. 26PCh. 11.3 - Prob. 27PCh. 11.3 - Prob. 28PCh. 11.4 - Prob. 29PCh. 11.4 - Seas Beginning sells clothing by mail order. An...Ch. 11.4 - Based on Babich (1992). Suppose that each week...Ch. 11.4 - The customer loyalty model in Example 11.9 assumes...Ch. 11.4 - Prob. 33PCh. 11.4 - Suppose that GLC earns a 2000 profit each time a...Ch. 11.4 - Prob. 35PCh. 11.5 - A martingale betting strategy works as follows....Ch. 11.5 - The game of Chuck-a-Luck is played as follows: You...Ch. 11.5 - You have 5 and your opponent has 10. You flip a...Ch. 11.5 - Assume a very good NBA team has a 70% chance of...Ch. 11.5 - Consider the following card game. The player and...Ch. 11.5 - Prob. 42PCh. 11 - You now have 5000. You will toss a fair coin four...Ch. 11 - You now have 10,000, all of which is invested in a...Ch. 11 - Suppose you have invested 25% of your portfolio in...Ch. 11 - Prob. 47PCh. 11 - Based on Marcus (1990). The Balboa mutual fund has...Ch. 11 - Prob. 50PCh. 11 - Prob. 52PCh. 11 - The annual demand for Prizdol, a prescription drug...Ch. 11 - Prob. 54PCh. 11 - The DC Cisco office is trying to predict the...Ch. 11 - A common decision is whether a company should buy...Ch. 11 - Suppose you begin year 1 with 5000. At the...Ch. 11 - You are considering a 10-year investment project....Ch. 11 - Play Things is developing a new Lady Gaga doll....Ch. 11 - An automobile manufacturer is considering whether...Ch. 11 - It costs a pharmaceutical company 75,000 to...Ch. 11 - Prob. 65PCh. 11 - Rework the previous problem for a case in which...Ch. 11 - Prob. 68PCh. 11 - The Tinkan Company produces one-pound cans for the...Ch. 11 - Prob. 70PCh. 11 - In this version of dice blackjack, you toss a...Ch. 11 - Prob. 76PCh. 11 - It is January 1 of year 0, and Merck is trying to...Ch. 11 - Suppose you are an HR (human resources) manager at...Ch. 11 - You are an avid basketball fan, and you would like...Ch. 11 - Suppose you are a financial analyst and your...Ch. 11 - Software development is an inherently risky and...Ch. 11 - Health care is continually in the news. Can (or...
Knowledge Booster
Learn more about
Need a deep-dive on the concept behind this application? Look no further. Learn more about this topic, operations-management and related others by exploring similar questions and additional content below.Similar questions
- Do you feel there is anything positive about rework?arrow_forwardDo you think technology can achieve faster setup times? How would it be implemented in the hospital workforce?arrow_forwardIn your experience or opinion, do you think process changes like organizing workspaces make a bigger difference, or is investing in technology usually the better solution for faster setups?arrow_forward
- Have you seen rework done in your business, and what was done to prevent that from occurring again?arrow_forwardResearch a company different than case studies examined and search the internet and find an example of a business that had to rework a process. How was the organization affected to rework a process in order to restore a good flow unit? Did rework hurt a process or improve the organization's operational efficiency? • Note: Include a reference with supportive citations in the discussion reply in your post.arrow_forwardSetup time is very important in affecting a process and the capacity of a process. How do you reduce setup time? Give examples of reducing setup time. Please Provide a referenecearrow_forward
- Do you think TPS was successful? If so, how? Are there other companies that have used TPS? If so, give examples. Please provide a referencearrow_forwardGiven the significant impact on finances, production timelines, and even equipment functionality, as you pointed out, what do you believe is the most effective single strategy a company can implement to significantly reduce the occurrence of rework within their operations?arrow_forwardDurban woman, Nombulelo Mkumla, took to social media last week to share how she discovered the rodent.In a lengthy Facebook post, she said she purchased the loaf of bread from a local shop after work on August 27.For the next days, Mkumla proceeded to use slices of bread from the load to make toast."Then, on the morning of August 31, I took the bread out of the fridge to make toast and noticed something disgusting andscary. I took a picture and sent it to my friends, and one of them said, 'Yi mpuku leyo tshomi' [That's a rat friend]“."I was in denial and suggested it might be something else, but the rat scenario made sense - it's possible the rat got into thebread at the factory, and no one noticed," Mkumla said.She went back to the shop she'd bought the bread from and was told to lay a complaint directly with the supplier.She sent an email with a video and photographs of the bread.Mkumla said she was later contacted by a man from Sasko who apologised for the incident.According to…arrow_forward
- PepsiCo South Africa says the incident where a woman discovered part of a rodent in her loaf of bread, is anisolated occurrence.Durban woman, Nombulelo Mkumla, took to social media last week to share how she discovered the rodent.In a lengthy Facebook post, she said she purchased the loaf of bread from a local shop after work on August 27.For the next days, Mkumla proceeded to use slices of bread from the load to make toast."Then, on the morning of August 31, I took the bread out of the fridge to make toast and noticed something disgusting andscary. I took a picture and sent it to my friends, and one of them said, 'Yi mpuku leyo tshomi' [That's a rat friend]“."I was in denial and suggested it might be something else, but the rat scenario made sense - it's possible the rat got into thebread at the factory, and no one noticed," Mkumla said.She went back to the shop she'd bought the bread from and was told to lay a complaint directly with the supplier.She sent an email with a video and…arrow_forwardDurban woman, Nombulelo Mkumla, took to social media last week to share how she discovered the rodent.In a lengthy Facebook post, she said she purchased the loaf of bread from a local shop after work on August 27.For the next days, Mkumla proceeded to use slices of bread from the load to make toast."Then, on the morning of August 31, I took the bread out of the fridge to make toast and noticed something disgusting andscary. I took a picture and sent it to my friends, and one of them said, 'Yi mpuku leyo tshomi' [That's a rat friend]“."I was in denial and suggested it might be something else, but the rat scenario made sense - it's possible the rat got into thebread at the factory, and no one noticed," Mkumla said.She went back to the shop she'd bought the bread from and was told to lay a complaint directly with the supplier.She sent an email with a video and photographs of the bread.Mkumla said she was later contacted by a man from Sasko who apologised for the incident.According to…arrow_forwardRead the project statement and answer ALL of the questions that follow PROJECT STATEMENT The African Integrated High-Speed Railway Network (AIHSRN). African nations are preparing to invest billions in a significant overhaul of their rail infrastructure as part of an ambitious plan for the continent. One of the key projects underway is the African Integrated High-Speed Railway Network (AIHSRN), which aims to connect Africa's capital cities and major commercial centres with a high-speed railway network to enhance continental trade and competition. This network will span 2,000 km (1,243 miles) and connect 60 cities, including Nairobi, Lagos, Cairo, and Dakar. It will improve access to essential markets, enhance economic cooperation, and encourage regional collaboration. The plan is poised to revolutionise intra-African trade by reducing travel times and lowering transportation costs, making trade between African nations more competitive. The trains will be capable of reaching speeds of up…arrow_forward
arrow_back_ios
SEE MORE QUESTIONS
arrow_forward_ios
Recommended textbooks for you
Practical Management ScienceOperations ManagementISBN:9781337406659Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.Publisher:Cengage,
Practical Management Science
Operations Management
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:Cengage,
Single Exponential Smoothing & Weighted Moving Average Time Series Forecasting; Author: Matt Macarty;https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IjETktmL4Kg;License: Standard YouTube License, CC-BY
Introduction to Forecasting - with Examples; Author: Dr. Bharatendra Rai;https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98K7AG32qv8;License: Standard Youtube License