Chapter 10.2, Problem 6MS

Blonde, bleached blonde (H). You have high standards with respect to truth in advertising, particularly when it comes to hair color. One day at the laund romat, you meet an attractive blonde stranger named Chris and wonder if you should pursue a relationship. Unfortunately, you have the nagging belief that Chris’s golden locks may have been the result of peroxide—presenting the specter of a dark (haired) future. However, you also know several facts about the incidence of dyed hair and about your ability to detect fraudulent follicles. You know that 90% of blonde people in the world are naturally blonde. You have done a personal survey and learned that you are 80% accur ate in your ability to correctly categorize fake hair color as fake and real hair color as real. What is the probability that Chris hair is fair and that your bleached beliefs were incorrect? Given these facts, should you pursue your relationship with Chris?