(a.)
If it is plausible that a fairly chosen group could be all republicans, or if there is a good reason to be suspicious.
It has been determined that while it is not fully impossible, it is nonetheless implausible that a fairly chosen group could be all republicans, and so there is a good reason to be suspicious.
Given:
The Republican Chairperson of a county legislature had to select
Concept used:
The drawing of names from a hat are not independent events. The subsequent drawing depends on the names already drawn.
Calculation:
It is given that the legislature had
So, the hat had the names of
At this point of time, the hat has the names of
Now, the probability that the first name drawn is of a republican is
At this point of time, the hat has the names of
Now, the probability that the second name drawn is also a republican given that the first name drawn is of a republican is
At this point of time, the hat has the names of
Now, the probability that the third name drawn is also a republican given that the first two names drawn are of republicans is
At this point of time, the hat has the names of
Now, the probability that the fourth name drawn is also a republican given that the first three names drawn are of republicans is
Solving, the probability that the fourth name drawn is also a republican given that the first three names drawn are of republicans is approximately
This implies that while it is not fully impossible, it is nonetheless implausible that a fairly chosen group could be all republicans, and so there is a good reason to be suspicious.
Conclusion:
It has been determined that while it is not fully impossible, it is nonetheless implausible that a fairly chosen group could be all republicans, and so there is a good reason to be suspicious.
(b.)
The assumption, which the previous calculations have been based on and why that assumption may or may not be warranted.
It has been determined that the assumption, which the previous calculations have been based on is that the drawing of each name is equally likely. That is, the probability of drawing each name is equal.
It has been determined that, this assumption may be invalid because according to the calculations based on this assumption, the occurred event is not plausible.
Given:
The Republican Chairperson of a county legislature had to select
Concept used:
The drawing of names from a hat are not independent events. The subsequent drawing depends on the names already drawn.
Calculation:
As determined previously, the probability that the fourth name drawn is also a republican given that the first three names drawn are of republicans is approximately
So, while it is not fully impossible, it is nonetheless implausible that a fairly chosen group could be all republicans, and so there is a good reason to be suspicious.
The assumption, which the previous calculations have been based on is that the drawing of each name is equally likely. That is, the probability of drawing each name is equal.
Now, this assumption may be invalid because according to the calculations based on this assumption, the occurred event is not plausible.
Conclusion:
It has been determined that the assumption, which the previous calculations have been based on is that the drawing of each name is equally likely. That is, the probability of drawing each name is equal.
It has been determined that, this assumption may be invalid because according to the calculations based on this assumption, the occurred event is not plausible.
Chapter 10 Solutions
PRECALCULUS:...COMMON CORE ED.-W/ACCESS
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