Chapter 10.1, Problem 127ES

Length of Marriage. John Tierney and Garth Sundem have developed an equation that can be used to estimate the probability that a celebrity marriage will last. The probability P that a couple will still be married in T years is given by

$P=50\sqrt[\text{15}]{\frac{\text{NYT}\left(\text{Ah+Aw}\right)}{\text{ENQ}\left(\text{Sc+5}\right)}\cdot \text{Md}\cdot {\left[\frac{\text{Md}}{\left(\text{Md+2}\right)}\right]}^{T^2}}$ where $\text{NYT}=$

the number of times since 1990 that the wife’s name appeared in the New York Times, ENQ $=$ the number of times since 1990 that the wife’s name appeared in the National Enquirer, Ah $=$ the husband's age, in years, Aw $=$ the wife's age, in years, Md $=$ the number of months that the couple dated before marriage, and Sc $=$ the number of the top five photos returned by a Google images search for the wife's name in which she was “scantily clad.” Kate Middleton and Prince William were both 29 when they were married and had dated for 120 months. Kate appeared 258 times in the New York Times and 44 times in the National Enquirer, and her Sc value was 0. What is the probability that the marriage will last 5 years?

Data: “Refining the Formula That Predicts Celebrity Marriages' Doom,”

www.nytimes.com, March 12, 2012