Practical Management Science, Loose-leaf Version

5th Edition

ISBN: 9781305631540

Author: WINSTON, Wayne L.; Albright, S. Christian

Publisher: Cengage Learning

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Forecasting in Business

Forecasting is the process of predicting the future based on the past and the present data and circumstances. In other words, forecasting is the act of making a detailed analysis of future events based on the decisions made in the past as well as the pre…

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Chapter 10, Problem 35P

Lemington’s is trying to determine how many Jean Hudson dresses to order for the spring season. Demand for the dresses is assumed to follow a normal distribution with mean 400 and standard deviation 100. The contract between Jean Hudson and Lemington’s works as follows. At the beginning of the season, Lemington’s reserves x units of capacity. Lemington’s must take delivery for at least 0.8x dresses and can, if desired, take delivery on up to x dresses. Each dress sells for $160 and Hudson charges $50 per dress. If Lemington’s does not take delivery on all x dresses, it owes Hudson a $5 penalty for each unit of reserved capacity that is unused. For example, if Lemington’s orders 450 dresses and demand is for 400 dresses, Lemington’s will receive 400 dresses and owe Jean 400($50) + 50($5). How many units of capacity should Lemington’s reserve to maximize its expected profit?

Features Features Normal distribution is characterized by two parameters, mean (µ) and standard deviation (σ). When graphed, the mean represents the center of the bell curve and the graph is perfectly symmetric about the center. The mean, median, and mode are all equal for a normal distribution. The standard deviation measures the data's spread from the center. The higher the standard deviation, the more the data is spread out and the flatter the bell curve looks. Variance is another commonly used measure of the spread of the distribution and is equal to the square of the standard deviation.

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Chapter 10, Problem 34P

Chapter 10, Problem 36P

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Sales of tablet computers at Marika Gonzalez's electronics store in Washington, D.C., over the past 10 weeks are shown in the table below: Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Demand 21 21 27 38 25 30 35 24 25 30 a) The forecast for weeks 2 through 10 using exponential smoothing with a = 0.50 and a week 1 initial forecast of 21.0 are (round your responses to two decimal places): Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Demand 21 21 27 38 25 30 35 24 25 30 Forecast 21.0 21 21 24 31 28 29 32 28 26.50 b) For the forecast developed using exponential smoothing (a = 0.50 and initial forecast 21.0), the MAD = |||||sales (round your response to two decimal places).

Sales of tablet computers at Marika Gonzalez's electronics store in Washington, D.C., over the past 10 weeks are shown in the table below: Week Demand 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 21 21 27 38 25 30 35 24 25 30 a) The forecast for weeks 2 through 10 using exponential smoothing with a = 0.50 and a week 1 initial forecast of 21.0 are (round your responses to two decimal places): Week 1 2 3 4 5 Demand 21 21 27 38 Forecast 21.0 ☐ G ☐ ☐ 6 7 25 30 35 ∞ ☐ 8 9 10 24 25 30

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Chapter 10 Solutions

Practical Management Science, Loose-leaf Version

Ch. 10.2 - Use the RAND function and the Copy command to...Ch. 10.2 - Use Excels functions (not @RISK) to generate 1000...Ch. 10.2 - Use @RISK to draw a uniform distribution from 400...Ch. 10.2 - Use @RISK to draw a normal distribution with mean...Ch. 10.2 - Use @RISK to draw a triangular distribution with...Ch. 10.2 - Use @RISK to draw a binomial distribution that...Ch. 10.2 - Use @RISK to draw a triangular distribution with...Ch. 10.2 - We all hate to keep track of small change. By...Ch. 10.4 - Prob. 11P Ch. 10.4 - In August of the current year, a car dealer is...

Ch. 10.4 - Prob. 13P Ch. 10.4 - Prob. 14P Ch. 10.4 - Prob. 15P Ch. 10.5 - If you add several normally distributed random...Ch. 10.5 - In Problem 11 from the previous section, we stated...Ch. 10.5 - Continuing the previous problem, assume, as in...Ch. 10.5 - In Problem 12 of the previous section, suppose...Ch. 10.5 - Use @RISK to analyze the sweatshirt situation in...Ch. 10.5 - Although the normal distribution is a reasonable...Ch. 10.6 - When you use @RISKs correlation feature to...Ch. 10.6 - Prob. 24P Ch. 10.6 - Prob. 25P Ch. 10.6 - Prob. 28P Ch. 10 - Six months before its annual convention, the...Ch. 10 - Prob. 30P Ch. 10 - A new edition of a very popular textbook will be...Ch. 10 - Prob. 32P Ch. 10 - W. L. Brown, a direct marketer of womens clothing,...Ch. 10 - Prob. 34P Ch. 10 - Lemingtons is trying to determine how many Jean...Ch. 10 - Dilberts Department Store is trying to determine...Ch. 10 - It is surprising (but true) that if 23 people are...Ch. 10 - Prob. 40P Ch. 10 - At the beginning of each week, a machine is in one...Ch. 10 - Simulation can be used to illustrate a number of...Ch. 10 - Prob. 43P Ch. 10 - Prob. 46P Ch. 10 - If you want to replicate the results of a...Ch. 10 - Suppose you simulate a gambling situation where...Ch. 10 - Prob. 49P Ch. 10 - Big Hit Video must determine how many copies of a...Ch. 10 - Prob. 51P Ch. 10 - Prob. 52P Ch. 10 - Why is the RISKCORRMAT function necessary? How...Ch. 10 - Consider the claim that normally distributed...Ch. 10 - Prob. 55P Ch. 10 - When you use a RISKSIMTABLE function for a...Ch. 10 - Consider a situation where there is a cost that is...

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Solution Summary: The author explains that the simulation model is the digital prototype of the physical model that helps to forecast the performance of a system or model in the real world.

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Chapter 10 Solutions