A First Course In Probability, Global Edition
10th Edition
ISBN: 9781292269207
Author: Ross, Sheldon
Publisher: PEARSON
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Textbook Question
Chapter 1, Problem 1.23P
Consider the grid of points shown at the top of the next column. Suppose that, starting at the point labeled A, you can go one step up or one step to the right at each move. This procedure is continued until the point labeled B is reached. How many different paths from A to B are possible?
Hint: Note that to reach B from A, you must take 4 steps to the right and 3 steps upward.
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Starting with the finished version of Example 6.2, attached, change the decision criterion to "maximize expected utility," using an exponential utility function with risk tolerance $5,000,000. Display certainty equivalents on the tree.
a. Keep doubling the risk tolerance until the company's best strategy is the same as with the EMV criterion—continue with development and then market if successful.
The risk tolerance must reach $ 160,000,000 before the risk averse company acts the same as the EMV-maximizing company.
b. With a risk tolerance of $320,000,000, the company views the optimal strategy as equivalent to receiving a sure $____________ , even though the EMV from the original strategy (with no risk tolerance) is $ 59,200.
Starting with the finished version of Example 6.2, attached, change the decision criterion to "maximize expected utility," using an exponential utility function with risk tolerance $5,000,000. Display certainty equivalents on the tree.
a. Keep doubling the risk tolerance until the company's best strategy is the same as with the EMV criterion—continue with development and then market if successful.
The risk tolerance must reach $ ____________ before the risk averse company acts the same as the EMV-maximizing company.
b. With a risk tolerance of $320,000,000, the company views the optimal strategy as equivalent to receiving a sure $____________ , even though the EMV from the original strategy (with no risk tolerance) is $ ___________ .
A television network earns an average of $14 million each season from a hit program and loses an average of $8 million each season on a program that turns out to be a flop. Of all programs picked up by this network in recent years, 25% turn out to be hits and 75% turn out to be flops. At a cost of C dollars, a market research firm will analyze a pilot episode of a prospective program and issue a report predicting whether the given program will end up being a hit. If the program is actually going to be a hit, there is a 75% chance that the market researchers will predict the program to be a hit. If the program is actually going to be a flop, there is only a 30% chance that the market researchers will predict the program to be a hit.
What is the maximum value of C that the network should be willing to pay the market research firm? Enter your answer in dollars, not in million dollars.
$ __________
Calculate EVPI for this decision problem. Enter your answer in dollars, not in million…
Chapter 1 Solutions
A First Course In Probability, Global Edition
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Ch. 1 - In how many ways can 3 novels. 2 mathematics...Ch. 1 - How many 3 digit numbers zyz, with x, y, z all...Ch. 1 - How many different letter permutations, of any...Ch. 1 - Five separate awards (best scholarship, best...Ch. 1 - Consider a group of 20 people. If everyone shakes...Ch. 1 - How many 5-card poker hands are there?Ch. 1 - A dance class consists of 22 students, of which 10...Ch. 1 - A student has to sell 2 books from a collection of...Ch. 1 - Seven different gifts are to be distributed among...Ch. 1 - A committee of 7, consisting of 2 Republicans, 2...Ch. 1 - From a group of 8 women and 6 men, a committee...Ch. 1 - A person has 8 friends, of whom S will be invited...Ch. 1 - Consider the grid of points shown at the top of...Ch. 1 - In Problem 23, how many different paths are there...Ch. 1 - A psychology laboratory conducting dream research...Ch. 1 - Show k=0n(nk)2k=3n Simplify k=0n(nk)xkCh. 1 - Expand (3x2+y)5.Ch. 1 - The game of bridge is played by 4 players, each of...Ch. 1 - Expand (x1+2x2+3x3)4.Ch. 1 - If 12 people are to be divided into 3 committees...Ch. 1 - If 8 new teachers are to be divided among 4...Ch. 1 - Ten weight lifters are competing in a team...Ch. 1 - Delegates from 10 countries, including Russia,...Ch. 1 - If 8 identical blackboards are to be divided among...Ch. 1 - An elevator starts at the basement with 8 people...Ch. 1 - We have 520.000 that must be invested among 4...Ch. 1 - Suppose that 10 fish are caught at a lake that...Ch. 1 - Prove the generalized version of the basic...Ch. 1 - Two experiments are to be performed. The first can...Ch. 1 - In how many ways can r objects be selected from a...Ch. 1 - There are (nr) different linear arrangements of n...Ch. 1 - Determine the number of vectors (x1,...,xn), such...Ch. 1 - How many vectors x1,...,xk are there for which...Ch. 1 - Give an analytic proof of Equation (4.1).Ch. 1 - Prove that (n+mr)=(n0)(mr)+(n1)(mr1)+...+(nr)(m0)...Ch. 1 - Use Theoretical Exercise 8 I to prove that...Ch. 1 - From a group of n people, suppose that we want to...Ch. 1 - The following identity is known as Fermats...Ch. 1 - Consider the following combinatorial identity:...Ch. 1 - Show that, for n0 ,i=0n(1)i(ni)=0 Hint: Use the...Ch. 1 - From a set of n people, a committee of size j is...Ch. 1 - Let Hn(n) be the number of vectors x1,...,xk for...Ch. 1 - Consider a tournament of n contestants in which...Ch. 1 - Present a combinatorial explanation of why...Ch. 1 - Argue...Ch. 1 - Prove the multinomial theorem.Ch. 1 - In how many ways can n identical balls be...Ch. 1 - Argue that there are exactly (rk)(n1nr+k)...Ch. 1 - Prob. 1.22TECh. 1 - Determine the number of vectors (xi,...,xn) such...Ch. 1 - How many different linear arrangements are there...Ch. 1 - If 4 Americans, 3 French people, and 3 British...Ch. 1 - A president. treasurer, and secretary. all...Ch. 1 - A student is to answer 7 out of 10 questions in an...Ch. 1 - In how many ways can a man divide 7 gifts among...Ch. 1 - How many different 7-place license plates are...Ch. 1 - Give a combinatorial explanation of the...Ch. 1 - Consider n-digit numbers where each digit is one...Ch. 1 - Consider three classes, each consisting of n...Ch. 1 - How many 5-digit numbers can be formed from the...Ch. 1 - From 10 married couples, we want to select a group...Ch. 1 - A committee of 6 people is to be chosen from a...Ch. 1 - An art collection on auction consisted of 4 Dalis,...Ch. 1 - Prob. 1.14STPECh. 1 - A total of n students are enrolled in a review...Ch. 1 - Prob. 1.16STPECh. 1 - Give an analytic verification of...Ch. 1 - In a certain community, there are 3 families...Ch. 1 - If there are no restrictions on where the digits...Ch. 1 - Verify the...Ch. 1 - Simplify n(n2)+(n3)...+(1)n+1(nn)
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