Your company has signed a contract with a good customer to ship the customer an order no later than 20 days from now. The contract indicates that the customer will accept the order even if it is late, but instead of paying the full price of $10,000, it will be allowed to pay 10% less, $9000, due to lateness. You estimate that it will take anywhere from 17 to 22 days to ship the order, and each of these is equally likely. You believe you are in good shape, reasoning that the expected days to ship is the average of 17 through 22, or 19.5 days. Because this is less than 20, you will get your full $10,000. What is wrong with your reasoning?

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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Your company has signed a contract with a good customer to ship the customer an order no
later than 20 days from now. The contract indicates that the customer will accept the order
even if it is late, but instead of paying the full price of $10,000, it will be allowed to pay 10%
less, $9000, due to lateness. You estimate that it will take anywhere from 17 to 22 days to
ship the order, and each of these is equally likely. You believe you are in good shape,
reasoning that the expected days to ship is the average of 17 through 22, or 19.5 days.
Because this is less than 20, you will get your full $10,000. What is wrong with your
reasoning?
Transcribed Image Text:Your company has signed a contract with a good customer to ship the customer an order no later than 20 days from now. The contract indicates that the customer will accept the order even if it is late, but instead of paying the full price of $10,000, it will be allowed to pay 10% less, $9000, due to lateness. You estimate that it will take anywhere from 17 to 22 days to ship the order, and each of these is equally likely. You believe you are in good shape, reasoning that the expected days to ship is the average of 17 through 22, or 19.5 days. Because this is less than 20, you will get your full $10,000. What is wrong with your reasoning?
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