A business lady is wondering whether to invest OMR10,000 in buying bonds at Muscat Security Market (MSM) or put it in a fixed deposit account in Sohar bank at an interest rate of 9%. For the MSM, if the market is good, she believes that she could get a 14% return on her money. With a fair market, she expects to get an 8% return. If the market is bad, she will most likely get no return, i.e., the return would be 0%. She estimates that the probability of a good market is 0.4, the probability of a fair market is 0.4, and the probability of a bad market is 0.2, and she wishes to maximize her long-run average return. a. Develop a decision/payoff table for this problem. b. What is the best decision? c. Calculate the expected value of perfect information and interpret the result.

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Author:Amos Gilat
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Chapter1: Starting With Matlab
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A business lady is wondering whether to invest OMR10,000 in buying bonds at
Muscat Security Market (MSM) or put it in a fixed deposit account in Sohar bank
at an interest rate of 9%. For the MSM, if the market is good, she believes that
she could get a 14% return on her money. With a fair market, she expects to get
an 8% return. If the market is bad, she will most likely get no return, i.e., the return
would be 0%. She estimates that the probability of a good market is 0.4, the
probability of a fair market is 0.4, and the probability of a bad market is 0.2, and
she wishes to maximize her long-run average return.
a. Develop a decision/payoff table for this problem.
b. What is the best decision?
c. Calculate the expected value of perfect information and interpret the result.
d. The business lady is thinking about paying for a financial advising company
that could predict very accurately whether the market would be good, fair, or
bad. Advise the business lady on the maximum amount of money that she
should pay to the company? (
Transcribed Image Text:A business lady is wondering whether to invest OMR10,000 in buying bonds at Muscat Security Market (MSM) or put it in a fixed deposit account in Sohar bank at an interest rate of 9%. For the MSM, if the market is good, she believes that she could get a 14% return on her money. With a fair market, she expects to get an 8% return. If the market is bad, she will most likely get no return, i.e., the return would be 0%. She estimates that the probability of a good market is 0.4, the probability of a fair market is 0.4, and the probability of a bad market is 0.2, and she wishes to maximize her long-run average return. a. Develop a decision/payoff table for this problem. b. What is the best decision? c. Calculate the expected value of perfect information and interpret the result. d. The business lady is thinking about paying for a financial advising company that could predict very accurately whether the market would be good, fair, or bad. Advise the business lady on the maximum amount of money that she should pay to the company? (
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