You are using exponential smoothing to forecast demand. For September, suppose you forecasted 165 units and actually sold 178 units. If you use an alpha value of 0.2. what will be the exponential smoothing forecast for October?
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![You are using exponential smoothing to forecast demand. For September, suppose you
forecasted 165 units and actually sold 178 units. If you use an alpha value of 0.2. what will be
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- AD has estimated the following demand relationship for its product over the last four years, using monthly observations: ln Qt = 4.932- 1.238 ln Pt + 1.524 ln Yt-1 + 0.4865lnQt-1(2.54) (1.38) (3.65) (2.87)R2= 0.8738where Q = sales in units, P = price in Rs., Y is income in Rs,000, and the numbers in brackets are t-statistics.a. Interpret the above model.b. Make a sales forecast if price is Rs. 9, income last month was Rs. 25,000 and sales last month were 2,981 units.c. Make a sales forecast for the following month if there is no change in price or income.d. If price is increased by 5 per cent in general terms, estimate the effect on sales, stating any assumptions.Based on the information in the following table, use the Exponential Smoothing Approach (a = 0.5) to forecast the demand for periods 4-11 PERIOD MONTH Demand Forecast Jan 89 2. Feb 151 89 3 Mar 60 120 4. Apr 107 May 131 9. Jun 140 7 Jul 71 8. Aug 94 sep 102 10 Oct 119 11 NovA manufacturer of entertainment centers uses the completion of new homes as part of their demand forecast. They consider that for every five homes that cost over $300,000 in the city, they make one sale. For every 20 new homes that cost over $150,000 but less than $300,000 in the city, they make one sale. Their projected demand for the future period, before they consider home sales, is for six entertainment centers. They now receive home figures of ten new homes of over $300,000 and 40 new homes of $150,000-$300,000. What should their new forecast be?
- kad has estimated the following demand relationship for its product over the last four years, using monthly observations: ln qt = 4.932- 1.238 ln pt + 1.524 ln yt-1 + 0.4865ln qt-1 (2.54) (1.38) (3.65) (2.87) r 2= 0.8738 where q = sales in units, p = price in rs., y is income in rs,000, and the numbers in brackets are t-statistics. a. interpret the above model. b. make a sales forecast if price is rs. 9, income last month was rs. 25,000 and sales last month were 2,981 units. c. make a sales forecast for the following month if there is no change in price or income. d. if price is increased by 5 per cent in general terms, estimate the effect on sales, stating any assumptions.A company selling widgets has found that the number of items sold, x, depends upon the price, p at 90000 which they're sold, according the equation z = (0.6p + 1)? Due to inflation and increasing health benefit costs, the company has been increasing the price by $0.06 per month. Find the rate at which revenue is changing when the company is selling widgets at $8 each. Revenue is decreasing by dollars per month Hint: Give your answer as a positive value.A company selling widgets has found that the number of items sold, x, depends upon the price, p at which 70000 they're sold, according the equation a = (0.6p + 1)? Due to inflation and increasing health benefit costs, the company has been increasing the price by $0.03 per month. Find the rate at which revenue is changing when the company is selling widgets at $3 each. Revenue is decreasing by dollars per month Hint: Give your answer as a positive value.
- Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.3 to forecast the demand for fertilizer in year 12. Assume that last period's forecast for year 1 is 5,000 bags to begin the procedure. Bags are shown in 1,000's in table below. Year Demand (Bags) 6 3 4. 4. 5 10 6 8. 7 7 8 9 12 10 14 11 15 O A. 14.00 ОВ. 14.87 OC. 11.79 O D. 13.67 Click to select your answer. tUs I MacBook Air 80 F3 888 * ES F4 44 F7 F2 F6 F8 >) FIO F11 @ #3 24 4 & 2 6. 7 8 9. 0. W R Y U P. F G H %3D K C V N alt command command option * coBell Greenhouses has estimated its monthly demand for potting soil to be the following: Assume this trend factor is expected to remain stable in the foreseeable future. The following table contains the monthly seasonal adjustment factors, which have been estimated using actual sales data from the past five years: MONTH ADJUSTMENT FACTOR (%) March +2 June +15 August +10 December −12 a. Forecast Bell Greenhouses’ demand for potting soil in March, June, August, and December 2007. Answer b. If the following table shows the forecasted and actual potting soil sales by Bell Greenhouses for April in five different years, determine the seasonal adjustment factor to be used in making an April 2008 forecast. YEAR FORECAST ACTUAL 2007 500 515 2006 452 438 2005 404 420 2004 356 380 2003 308 3205. Exercise 5.5 A firm experienced the demand shown in the following table. Fill in the table by preparing forecasts based on a five-year moving average, a three-year moving average, and exponential smoothing (w = 0.9 forecasts may be begun by assuming Y t+ F Yt •) and w = 0.3 ). (Note: The exponential smoothing Moving Average Actual Demand (5-year) (3-year) Exponential Smoothing (W = 0.9) Year (W = 0.3) 2000 900 2001 885 900 900 2002 875 2003 870 887 ▼ 2004 870 877 ▼ 2005 875 880 872 Y 2006 885 875 872 2007 900 875 877 2008 920 880 887 - 2009 945 890 902 Y 2010 905 922 The following table shows the square errors, (Y; - T1-) , for forecasts from 2005 through 2009. Fill the table by calculating the root mean square error (RMSE) for each of the methods. Square Error Exponential Smoothing Moving Average Year (5-year) (3-year) (W = 0.9) (W = 0.3) 2005 25 9 25 25 2006 100 169 100 36 2007 625 529 256 361 2008 1,600 1,089 484 1,089 2009 3,025 1,849 729 2,304 RMSE Based on the RMSE criterion,…
- In the past four years, the annual returns of one company’s stockare 12%, 18%, and –14%, and 7%.a) What is the geometric average return? b) What is the arithmetic average of the returns? c) According to an economist’ forecast on the Year 2020, the probabilities of repeatingthe performances of the former four years are 30%, 30%, 20%, and 20%, respectively.What is the expected return of the stock in the Year 2020A department store is about to order deluxe, standard, and economy grade DVD players for next year's inventory. The state of the nation's economy (fate) during the year will be a factor on sales for that year. Records over the past 5 years show that if the economy is up, the store will net 4, 2, and 1 million dollers, respectively, on sales of deluxe, standard, and economy grade models; if the economy is down, the company will net -2, 1, and 4 million dollars, respectively, on sales of deluxe, standard, and economy grade models. Complete parts A through D below. The expected value of the game to the company if it orders only deluxe DVD players and fate plays the strategy "Down" is | (Simplify your answer.) The expected value of the game to the company if it plays its optimal strategy and fate plays the strategy "Down" is (Simplify your answer.)Direction: Complete the table below to find the 60h percentile for the following se of data. Data Find the position of Find P60 P=(n+ 1)th Px100 1. 20, 22, 25, 32, 35 P60 = 20-2 20122 2. 49, 50, 55, 55, 60, 67 P60 = 3. 18, 19, 20, 22, 25,27, 29, 30, 32 P60 = Direction: Read the questions carefully. Encircle the letter of the corre
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