6-5 Given: Consider the following time series data. week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 13 16 11 17 14 Week Time Series Value Forecast 1 18 2 13 3 16 15.6667 4 11 13.3333 5 17 14.6667 6 14 14 MSE = 11.889 Forecast for week 7 = 14 Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Week Time Series Value Forecast 1 18 2 13 3 16 4 11 5 17 6 14 MSE: The forecast for week 7: Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE?
6-5
Given:
Consider the following time series data.
week 1 2 3 4 5 6
Value 18 13 16 11 17 14
Week Time Series Value
1 18
2 13
3 16 15.6667
4 11 13.3333
5 17 14.6667
6 14 14
MSE = 11.889
Forecast for week 7 = 14
Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your answers to two decimal places.
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Time Series |
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|
1 |
18 |
|
|
2 |
13 |
|
|
3 |
16 |
|
|
4 |
11 |
|
|
5 |
17 |
|
|
6 |
14 |
MSE:
The forecast for week 7:
Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE?
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