What type of pattern exists in the data? b. Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Round your answers to two decimal places. Time Series Week Forecast Value 18 15 16 13 17 16 1 2 3 4 5 6 MSE: The forecast for week 7: c. Use a = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Round your answers to two decimal places. Time Series Week Forecast Value 18 15 16 1 2 3 5 6 MSE: 13 17 16 The forecast for week 7:
What type of pattern exists in the data? b. Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Round your answers to two decimal places. Time Series Week Forecast Value 18 15 16 13 17 16 1 2 3 4 5 6 MSE: The forecast for week 7: c. Use a = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Round your answers to two decimal places. Time Series Week Forecast Value 18 15 16 1 2 3 5 6 MSE: 13 17 16 The forecast for week 7:
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models
Section13.6: Moving Averages Models
Problem 22P: The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six...
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Question
Consider the following time series data.
Choose the correct time series plot.
What type of pattern exists in the data?
Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a
= 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Round your answers to two decimal places.
Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using
Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for = 0.2. Find a value of for the smallest MSE. Round your answer to three decimal places.
![Problem 15-05 (Algorithmic)
Consider the following time series data.
Week 1 2
3 4 5 6
Value 18 15 16 13 17 16
a. Choose the correct time series plot.
(i)
(iii)
20-
]
18
16-
14
12
10
8
6-
4-
2₁
20-
18
16-
14
12
10-
8
6-
4-
Time Series Value
2
1
2
Time Series Value
1
3
4
3
5
4
6
5
(iv)
EMT
16-
14.
12
Week(t)
6
(ii)
Week(t)
20-
18-
16-
14-
12
10.
8.
6-
4-
2
20
18
10.
8
6-
4-
Time Series Value
2
1
2
Time Series Value
1
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
Week(t)
Week(t)](/v2/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcontent.bartleby.com%2Fqna-images%2Fquestion%2F399a0712-cc92-47dc-ac76-17e7cfe211f4%2Fbac2ac1d-82a8-419d-a559-1d14975d5d4c%2Fh05mcu7_processed.png&w=3840&q=75)
Transcribed Image Text:Problem 15-05 (Algorithmic)
Consider the following time series data.
Week 1 2
3 4 5 6
Value 18 15 16 13 17 16
a. Choose the correct time series plot.
(i)
(iii)
20-
]
18
16-
14
12
10
8
6-
4-
2₁
20-
18
16-
14
12
10-
8
6-
4-
Time Series Value
2
1
2
Time Series Value
1
3
4
3
5
4
6
5
(iv)
EMT
16-
14.
12
Week(t)
6
(ii)
Week(t)
20-
18-
16-
14-
12
10.
8.
6-
4-
2
20
18
10.
8
6-
4-
Time Series Value
2
1
2
Time Series Value
1
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
Week(t)
Week(t)
Transcribed Image Text:What type of pattern exists in the data?
b. Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Round your answers to two decimal places.
Time Series
Value
18
15
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
MSE:
Week
1
2
The forecast for week 7:
3
c. Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Round your answers to two decimal places.
Time Series
Value
18
15
4
5
6
16
MSE:
13
17
16
Explain.
16
13
Forecast
17
16
Forecast
The forecast for week 7:
d. Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using a = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE?
The input in the box below will not be graded, but may be reviewed and considered by your instructor.
e. Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient a that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for a = 0.2. Find a value of a for the smallest MSE. Round your answer to three decimal places.
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