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What to reply to this discussion post? My name is Karyme Flores and I am running for mayor of Eagle Pass, Texas in the May 2025 city election. Unfortunately, the city of Eagle Pass and the Maverick County elections office have little no information on city elections and elections in general, so I used the Denton County Judge race in 2022 to do my analysis.  Voter turnout for Democrats was 126,349 and for Republicans it was 185,232 290,006 people did not vote in Denton County  I am not sure how to come up with this number, but doing the calculations below and what I would consider an educated guess is that 65,000 voters are winnable. (That feels very optimistic though.)  The three precincts I would visit would be 4167, 4170, and 4187 if I was running for Denton County Judge. All of these precincts had a higher percentage of voter turnout for Democratic candidates and my views and political ideology aligns more with that of the Democratic party. These precincts had very big margins between the ballots casted for each party, for example precinct 4167 had 805 more people vote for the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate and precinct 4170 had 1567 people vote for the Democratic candidate. All of these precincts clearly swing left, therefore the people not voting at all or not voting in the local elections are likely to have those same values and go out and vote with the right messaging and plan.  The three precincts I would not visit are 4193, 1003, and 4191. First of all, these precincts are the most red on the Denton County map and the percent of people who voted for the Republican candidate is between 82 and 83. The likelihood of voters changing their mind in these precincts is very low and it is not a good investment since it is very clear which way the precinct is voting. It might also activate Republicans against my hypothetical campaign or a Democratic Denton County Judge candidate.

What to reply to this discussion post? My name is Karyme Flores and I am running for mayor of Eagle Pass, Texas in the May 2025 city election. Unfortunately, the city of Eagle Pass and the Maverick County elections office have little no information on city elections and elections in general, so I used the Denton County Judge race in 2022 to do my analysis.  Voter turnout for Democrats was 126,349 and for Republicans it was 185,232 290,006 people did not vote in Denton County  I am not sure how to come up with this number, but doing the calculations below and what I would consider an educated guess is that 65,000 voters are winnable. (That feels very optimistic though.)  The three precincts I would visit would be 4167, 4170, and 4187 if I was running for Denton County Judge. All of these precincts had a higher percentage of voter turnout for Democratic candidates and my views and political ideology aligns more with that of the Democratic party. These precincts had very big margins between the ballots casted for each party, for example precinct 4167 had 805 more people vote for the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate and precinct 4170 had 1567 people vote for the Democratic candidate. All of these precincts clearly swing left, therefore the people not voting at all or not voting in the local elections are likely to have those same values and go out and vote with the right messaging and plan.  The three precincts I would not visit are 4193, 1003, and 4191. First of all, these precincts are the most red on the Denton County map and the percent of people who voted for the Republican candidate is between 82 and 83. The likelihood of voters changing their mind in these precincts is very low and it is not a good investment since it is very clear which way the precinct is voting. It might also activate Republicans against my hypothetical campaign or a Democratic Denton County Judge candidate.

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What to reply to this discussion post?

My name is Karyme Flores and I am running for mayor of Eagle Pass, Texas in the May 2025 city election. Unfortunately, the city of Eagle Pass and the Maverick County elections office have little no information on city elections and elections in general, so I used the Denton County Judge race in 2022 to do my analysis. 

  1. Voter turnout for Democrats was 126,349 and for Republicans it was 185,232
  2. 290,006 people did not vote in Denton County
  3.  I am not sure how to come up with this number, but doing the calculations below and what I would consider an educated guess is that 65,000 voters are winnable. (That feels very optimistic though.) 
  4. The three precincts I would visit would be 4167, 4170, and 4187 if I was running for Denton County Judge. All of these precincts had a higher percentage of voter turnout for Democratic candidates and my views and political ideology aligns more with that of the Democratic party. These precincts had very big margins between the ballots casted for each party, for example precinct 4167 had 805 more people vote for the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate and precinct 4170 had 1567 people vote for the Democratic candidate. All of these precincts clearly swing left, therefore the people not voting at all or not voting in the local elections are likely to have those same values and go out and vote with the right messaging and plan. 
  5. The three precincts I would not visit are 4193, 1003, and 4191. First of all, these precincts are the most red on the Denton County map and the percent of people who voted for the Republican candidate is between 82 and 83. The likelihood of voters changing their mind in these precincts is very low and it is not a good investment since it is very clear which way the precinct is voting. It might also activate Republicans against my hypothetical campaign or a Democratic Denton County Judge candidate.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1d2PEjJq9k6uf3CqDbvUZF_Br-VHqVzv9lC6KkyG3-Js/edit

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