What are the key concerns of the local government? What is the quantitative method applied here, and what are the variable/s used in the model? Looking at the unique aspects of the situation, what other forecasting method will you use here?  Review the quantitative methods 1-5. Review the advantages and disadvantages of these quantitative methods.

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What are the key concerns of the local government?

What is the quantitative method applied here, and what are the variable/s used in the model?

Looking at the unique aspects of the situation, what other forecasting method will you use here?  Review the quantitative methods 1-5.

Review the advantages and disadvantages of these quantitative methods.



OM in Action NYC's Potholes and Regression Analysis
New York is famous for many things, but one it does not like to be known for
is its large and numerous potholes. David Letterman used to joke: "There is a
pothole so big on 8th Avenue, it has its own Starbucks in it." When it comes to
potholes, some years seem to be worse than others. The winter of 2014 was
an exceptionally bad year. City workers filled a record 300,000 potholes during
the first 4 months of the year. That's an astounding accomplishment.
But potholes are to some extent a measure of municipal competence-and
they are costly. NYC's poor streets cost the average motorist an estimated
$800 per year in repair work and new tires. There has been a steady and
dramatic increase in potholes from around 70,000-80,000 in the 1990s to the
devastatingly high 200,000–300,000 range in recent years. One theory is that
bad weather causes the potholes. Using inches of snowfall as a measure of the
severity of the winter, the graph below shows a plot of the number of potholes
versus the inches of snow each winter.
No. of potholes
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
0
I
10
y = 115,860 +2,246.1x
r² = .32
I
20
I
I
L I
30 40 50 60 70
Inches of snow
Research showed that the city would need to resurface at least
1,000 miles of roads per year just to stay even with road deterioration.
Any amount below that would contribute to a "gap" or backlog of streets need-
ing repair. The graph below shows the plot of potholes versus the gap. With an
r² of .81, there is a very strong relationship between the increase in the "gap"
and the number of potholes. It is obvious that the real reason for the steady
and substantial increase in the number of potholes is due to the increasing gap
in road resurfacing.
No. of potholes
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
y = 15,495 + 91.1x
r² = .81
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
Backlog of streets needing repair
A third model performs a regression analysis using the resurfacing gap and
inches of snow as two independent variables and number of potholes as the
dependent variable. That regression model's r² is .91.
Potholes
7,801.5+ 80.6 X Resurfacing gap
+930.1 x Inches of snow
Sources: OR/MS Today (June, 2014) and New York Daily News (March 5, 2014).
Transcribed Image Text:OM in Action NYC's Potholes and Regression Analysis New York is famous for many things, but one it does not like to be known for is its large and numerous potholes. David Letterman used to joke: "There is a pothole so big on 8th Avenue, it has its own Starbucks in it." When it comes to potholes, some years seem to be worse than others. The winter of 2014 was an exceptionally bad year. City workers filled a record 300,000 potholes during the first 4 months of the year. That's an astounding accomplishment. But potholes are to some extent a measure of municipal competence-and they are costly. NYC's poor streets cost the average motorist an estimated $800 per year in repair work and new tires. There has been a steady and dramatic increase in potholes from around 70,000-80,000 in the 1990s to the devastatingly high 200,000–300,000 range in recent years. One theory is that bad weather causes the potholes. Using inches of snowfall as a measure of the severity of the winter, the graph below shows a plot of the number of potholes versus the inches of snow each winter. No. of potholes 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 0 I 10 y = 115,860 +2,246.1x r² = .32 I 20 I I L I 30 40 50 60 70 Inches of snow Research showed that the city would need to resurface at least 1,000 miles of roads per year just to stay even with road deterioration. Any amount below that would contribute to a "gap" or backlog of streets need- ing repair. The graph below shows the plot of potholes versus the gap. With an r² of .81, there is a very strong relationship between the increase in the "gap" and the number of potholes. It is obvious that the real reason for the steady and substantial increase in the number of potholes is due to the increasing gap in road resurfacing. No. of potholes 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 y = 15,495 + 91.1x r² = .81 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Backlog of streets needing repair A third model performs a regression analysis using the resurfacing gap and inches of snow as two independent variables and number of potholes as the dependent variable. That regression model's r² is .91. Potholes 7,801.5+ 80.6 X Resurfacing gap +930.1 x Inches of snow Sources: OR/MS Today (June, 2014) and New York Daily News (March 5, 2014).
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