There are 3 coloured bags p (pink), y (yellow), and o (orange). Bag p has 8 bananas, 7 mangos, and 3 papayas, bag y has 6 bananas, 4 mangos, and 7 papayas, and bag o has 7 bananas, 2 mangos, and 10 papayas. Suppose a bag is randomly chosen with probabilities P(p)=0.3, P(y)=0.4, P(o)=0.3, and removing or selecting one fruit in the bag has the equal probability. What is the probability of selecting a papaya? If the selected fruit is actually a mango, what is the probability that it is from the p (pink) bag? (Hint: Use Bayes Theorem to calculate the probability)

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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There are 3 coloured bags p (pink), y (yellow), and o (orange). Bag p has 8 bananas, 7 mangos, and 3 papayas, bag y has 6 bananas, 4 mangos, and 7 papayas, and bag o has 7 bananas, 2 mangos, and 10 papayas. Suppose a bag is randomly chosen with probabilities P(p)=0.3, P(y)=0.4, P(o)=0.3, and removing or selecting one fruit in the bag has the equal probability. What is the probability of selecting a papaya? If the selected fruit is actually a mango, what is the probability that it is from the p (pink) bag?

(Hint: Use Bayes Theorem to calculate the probability)

 

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