The population frequency of Down’s syndrome children born to 25 yr old females is 1/1000. However if an ultrasound of the unborn child shows a nuchal translucency (a thickening on the back of the neck), the risk of Down’s syndrome is increased 15-fold, regardless of the mother’s age. Using Bayesian analysis, calculate the probability that a fetus with a nuchal translucency, conceived by a 25 yr old woman, will have Down’s syndrome. Give your answers as whole or decimal numbers (to three decimal places but you may provide up to 6 decimal places). Scenario A – Down’s syndrome Scenario B - No Down’s syndrome Prior Probability Cond. Probability Joint probability Posterior probability
Contingency Table
A contingency table can be defined as the visual representation of the relationship between two or more categorical variables that can be evaluated and registered. It is a categorical version of the scatterplot, which is used to investigate the linear relationship between two variables. A contingency table is indeed a type of frequency distribution table that displays two variables at the same time.
Binomial Distribution
Binomial is an algebraic expression of the sum or the difference of two terms. Before knowing about binomial distribution, we must know about the binomial theorem.
The population frequency of Down’s syndrome children born to 25 yr old females is 1/1000. However if an ultrasound of the unborn child shows a nuchal translucency (a thickening on the back of the neck), the risk of Down’s syndrome is increased 15-fold, regardless of the mother’s age. Using Bayesian analysis, calculate the
Give your answers as whole or decimal numbers (to three decimal places but you may provide up to 6 decimal places).
| Scenario A – Down’s syndrome | Scenario B - No Down’s syndrome | |
| Prior Probability | ||
| Cond. Probability | ||
| Joint probability | ||
| Posterior probability |
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