The Paw Patrol Truck Set has been a very popular toy amongst kids. The company is planning to revisit its forecasting in order to assess the longevity of this model. The number of trucks sold over the past three years is shown below: a) Forecast the monthly number of trucks for year 4 using an adaptive method of your choice. Explain why you chose this particular method. b) Determine the appropriate values of the smoothing constants (if your method requires it) in order to minimize MAD.
Continuous Probability Distributions
Probability distributions are of two types, which are continuous probability distributions and discrete probability distributions. A continuous probability distribution contains an infinite number of values. For example, if time is infinite: you could count from 0 to a trillion seconds, billion seconds, so on indefinitely. A discrete probability distribution consists of only a countable set of possible values.
Normal Distribution
Suppose we had to design a bathroom weighing scale, how would we decide what should be the range of the weighing machine? Would we take the highest recorded human weight in history and use that as the upper limit for our weighing scale? This may not be a great idea as the sensitivity of the scale would get reduced if the range is too large. At the same time, if we keep the upper limit too low, it may not be usable for a large percentage of the population!
The Paw Patrol Truck Set has been a very popular toy amongst kids. The company is planning to revisit its forecasting in order to assess the longevity of this model. The number of trucks sold over the past three years is shown below:
a) Forecast the monthly number of trucks for year 4 using an adaptive method of your choice. Explain why you chose this particular method.
b) Determine the appropriate values of the smoothing constants (if your method requires it) in order to minimize MAD.
c) Comment about the sustainability/future of this model.
pls include excel screenshots as well
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