The number of times that a person contracts a cold in a given year is a Poisson random variable with parameter λ=5. Suppose that a new wonder drug (based on large quantities of vitamin C) has just been marketed that reduces the Poisson parameter to λ=3 for 70 percent of the population. For the other 30 percent of the population, the drug has no appreciable effect on colds. If Peter tried the drug for a year and has 3 colds in that time, what is the probability that the drug is beneficial for him?

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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The number of times that a person contracts a cold in a given year is a Poisson random variable
with parameter λ=5. Suppose that a new wonder drug (based on large quantities of vitamin C) has
just been marketed that reduces the Poisson parameter to λ=3 for 70 percent of the population. For
the other 30 percent of the population, the drug has no appreciable effect on colds. If Peter tried the
drug for a year and has 3 colds in that time, what is the probability that the drug is beneficial for
him?
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