The manager of a utility company in the Texas panhandle wants to develop quarterly forecasts of power loads for the next year. The power loads are seasonal, and the data on thequarterly loads in megawatts (MW) for the last four years are as follows:Year 3117.6QuarterYear 1101.6Year 4101.5Year 294.2112.7143.32127.3146.6143.4167.7182.4132.93159.3168.5153.7169.0The manager estimates the total demand for the next year at 689 MW. Use the multiplicative seasonal method to develop the forecast for each quarter. (Round all intermediate calculationsto three decimal places.)The first quarter forecast isMW. (Enter your response rounded to one decimal place.)

Seasonal index = season demand / average yearly demand Seasonal index when multiple periods are…

Answered: The manager of a utility company in the…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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The following gives the number of accidents that occurred on Florida State Highway 101 during the last 4 months: Jan Feb Mar AprMonth 1 2 3 4Number of Accidents 25 40 60 105 Using the least-squares regression method, the trend equation for forecasting is (round your responses to two decimal places): y = ? + ?x
The accompanying dataset provides data on the monthly usage of natural gas (in millions of cubic feet) for a certain region over two years. Implement the Holt-Winters multiplicative seasonality model with no trend to find the forecast for periods 13-26, where x = 0.5 and y = 0.8. Then find the MAD for periods 13-24. Click the icon to view the monthly use of natural gas data. Use the Holt-Winters multiplicative seasonality model with no trend to find the forecast for periods 13-18, periods 19-24, and then for periods 25 and 26. (Type integers or decimals rounded to two decimal places as needed.) Forecast Period 13 14 15 16 17 18 Natural Gas Usage Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Period Gas Usage 1 2 8699 A WI 3 4 5 7 9 10 11 12 13 14 1516718192021 22 23 24 241 221 155 137 54 34 29 27 30 40 90 201 229 238 242 136 34 34 28 26 27 40 86 187
The Dean of a faculty wants to forecast student enrolments for this academic year based on the following historical data: (5 years ago enrolment was 11770 ), (4 years ago enrolment was 15251), (3 years ago enrolment was 15785 ), (2 years ago enrolment was 16076 ) and in the last year enrolment was 19001 . What is the forecast for this year using exponential smoothing with alpha=0.58999997 , if the forecast for two years ago was :17623 a. 16710.27 b. 18061.801 c. 17801.75 d. 17386.035
Income at the law firm of Smith and Jones for the period February to July was as follows: Month February March April May June July Income (in $ thousand) 90.0 91.5 96.0 85.4 92.2 96.0 Assume that the initial forecast for February is $85,000 and the initial trend adjustment is 0. The smoothing constants selected are a = 0.1 and ß = 0.2. Using trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, the forecast for the law firm's August income =O thousand dollars (round your response to two decimal places).
Forecasting with Linear Regression The company VID-CO-19 has manufactured swim suits for men, women, and children for 10 years. The company is located in Boston, Massachusetts. Swim suits have always had a higher demand during the months of April, May, June, July, August, and September. The demand has always been lower during the months of October, November, December, January, February, and March. TETT The real demand, based on sales of year 20X1 is the following (it starts with December of the previous year): Period Bimester Demand Season Average December-January February-March 1 100 90 2 200 180 3 April-May June-July August-September 900 910 4 3,000 2,100 4,000 4,900 October-November 300 350 VID-CO-19 has hired you as an Operations Management expert to help them to forecast demand for year 20X2 using the Linear Regression Method. What is the TOTAL "seasonalized" or "deseasonalized' forecasted demand for Quito-Ecuador in year 20X2? (write your answer rounded to two decimals)
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Mark Gershon, owner of a musical instrument distributorship, thinks that demand for guitars may be related to the number of television appearances by the popular group Maroon 5 during the previous month. Gershon has collected the data shown in the following table: Maroon 5 TV Appearances Demand for Guitars Y = This exercise contains only parts b, c, and d. b) Using the least-squares regression method, the equation for forecasting is (round your responses to four decimal places): + 4 2 X 5 7 5 9 7 6 7 6 10 7
Over the past 6 weeks, some overseas wholesalers lowered their exports past 6 weeks shipments received by kaa were: 40, 35, 38, 34, 36, 31 tons. Kaa is seeking your help in forecasting expected shipment after 6 more weeks. Is it SMA or WMA or SLR or ESM forecast model?
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The Carbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest partly on the anticipated mileage to be driven next year. The miles driven during the past 5 years are as follows: Year Mileage miles (round your response to the nearest whole number). a) Using a 2-year moving average, the forecast for year 6 = 1 3,050 2 4,000 3 3,450 4 3,750 5 3,750

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