The manager of a university bookstore is trying to determine whether or not to advance purchase copies of a popular textbook. Her uncertainty is caused by the changing popularity of the course that requires the book. The table below characterizes the uncertainties as well as the present worth of her options.
The manager of a university bookstore is trying to determine whether or not to advance purchase copies of a popular textbook. Her uncertainty is caused by the changing popularity of the course that requires the book. The table below characterizes the uncertainties as well as the present worth of her options.
A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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
Transcribed Image Text:The manager of a university bookstore is trying to determine whether or not to advance purchase
copies of a popular textbook. Her uncertainty is caused by the changing popularity of the course
that requires the book. The table below characterizes the uncertainties as well as the present worth
of her options.
Future Popularity
of the Course
High
Medium
Low
If the future popularity
is going to be:
Probability
0.5
0.3
0.2
High
Medium
Low
PW of Savings with
Advanced Purchase
The bookstore manager can pay $6,000 for a student survey that will predict whether the course's
popularity will go up or down. The table below indicates the results of past predictions using
student surveys.
$200,000
Up
0.9
0.4
0.2
-$40,000
-$150,000
Then the probabilities that the survey will predict that
the popularity will go up or down are:
Down
0.1
0.6
0.8
Draw a decision tree to represent this situation. (critical to be shown in Excel submission).

Transcribed Image Text:Determine whether or not the manager should advance-purchase the textbook or pay for the
survey.
Take the survey and Purchase
Take the survey and don't Purchase
Don't take the survey but Purchase
Do neither
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