The dreaded disease brainfreezitis afflicts 2% of actuarial students taking an exam. Two tests are developed to detect this affliction. Test 1 gives positive results 98% of the time for an afflicted person and 4% of the time for a non-afflicted person. Test 2 gives positive results 99% of the time for an afflicted person and 6% of the time for a non-afflicted person. Given an afflicted person, the outcome of each test is conditionally independent of the other test; likewise for a non-afflicted person. If a randomly selected student tests positive with both tests, what is the probability that student actually has brainfreezitis?

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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The dreaded disease brainfreezitis afflicts 2% of actuarial students taking an exam. Two tests are developed to detect this affliction. Test 1 gives positive results 98% of the time for an afflicted person and 4% of the time for a non-afflicted person. Test 2 gives positive results 99% of the time for an afflicted person and 6% of the time for a non-afflicted person. Given an afflicted person, the outcome of each test is conditionally independent of the other test; likewise for a non-afflicted person.

If a randomly selected student tests positive with both tests, what is the probability that student actually has brainfreezitis?

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