Testing for a disease can be made more efficient by combining samples. If the samples from six people are combined and the mixture tests negative, then all six samples are negative. On the other hand, one positive sample will always test positive, no matter how many negative samples it is mixed with. Assuming the probability of a single sample testing positive is 0.2, find the probability of a positive result for six samples combined into one mixture. Is the probability low enough so that further testing of the individual samples is rarely necessary?
Addition Rule of Probability
It simply refers to the likelihood of an event taking place whenever the occurrence of an event is uncertain. The probability of a single event can be calculated by dividing the number of successful trials of that event by the total number of trials.
Expected Value
When a large number of trials are performed for any random variable ‘X’, the predicted result is most likely the mean of all the outcomes for the random variable and it is known as expected value also known as expectation. The expected value, also known as the expectation, is denoted by: E(X).
Probability Distributions
Understanding probability is necessary to know the probability distributions. In statistics, probability is how the uncertainty of an event is measured. This event can be anything. The most common examples include tossing a coin, rolling a die, or choosing a card. Each of these events has multiple possibilities. Every such possibility is measured with the help of probability. To be more precise, the probability is used for calculating the occurrence of events that may or may not happen. Probability does not give sure results. Unless the probability of any event is 1, the different outcomes may or may not happen in real life, regardless of how less or how more their probability is.
Basic Probability
The simple definition of probability it is a chance of the occurrence of an event. It is defined in numerical form and the probability value is between 0 to 1. The probability value 0 indicates that there is no chance of that event occurring and the probability value 1 indicates that the event will occur. Sum of the probability value must be 1. The probability value is never a negative number. If it happens, then recheck the calculation.
Testing for a disease can be made more efficient by combining samples. If the samples from
people are combined and the mixture tests negative, then
samples are negative. On the other hand, one positive sample will always test positive, no matter how many negative samples it is mixed with. Assuming the
Given Information:
Probability of a single sample testing positive is 0.2
Probability of a single sample testing negative is
We only save time when all six are negative, which has a probability of
combined sample tests negative = 1 with probability 0.262144
Combined sample tests positive = 1 + 6 retests = 7 with probability 0.737856
Expected number of tests is obtained as follows:
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