Siena Ltd attempts to find the trend of its sales over the past five years. Siena is considering which model that best represent the trends of its sales. Following are the result of linear and exponential model trend analysis:  a. Calculate the MSE and MAD for the linear trend model  b. Calculate the MSE and MAD for the exponential trend model  c. Which model that performs better

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Siena Ltd attempts to find the trend of its sales over the past five years. Siena is considering which model that best represent the trends of its sales. Following are the result of linear and exponential model trend analysis: 

a. Calculate the MSE and MAD for the linear trend model 

b. Calculate the MSE and MAD for the exponential trend model 

c. Which model that performs better 

Exponential Trend
1.0426*
Variable
Linear Trend
Intercept
0.2751
(0.68)
0.85751*
(0.00)
0.0979*
t
(0.00)
(0.00)
Se
1.4282
0.0767
Notes: Parameter estimates are in the top part of the table with the p-
values in parentheses; * represents significance at the 5 percent level;
Se is used in the forecast for the exponential trend.
Linear trend
T
e?
Yt
3.01
e; = y; – ŷt
1.88
1
1.13
3.52
1.88
3.13
1.99
1.14
1.30
1.14
19
18.07
16.57
1.50
2.26
1.50
20
19.99
17.43
2.56
6.58
2.56
Total
36.72
22.06
Exponential trend
T
Yt
e?
et
-0.127
1
3.01
3.137
0.016
0.127
3.13
3.460
-0.330
0.109
0.330
19
18.07
18.276
-0.206
0.042
0.206
20
19.99
20.155
-0.165
0.027
0.165
Total
5.077
8.315
Transcribed Image Text:Exponential Trend 1.0426* Variable Linear Trend Intercept 0.2751 (0.68) 0.85751* (0.00) 0.0979* t (0.00) (0.00) Se 1.4282 0.0767 Notes: Parameter estimates are in the top part of the table with the p- values in parentheses; * represents significance at the 5 percent level; Se is used in the forecast for the exponential trend. Linear trend T e? Yt 3.01 e; = y; – ŷt 1.88 1 1.13 3.52 1.88 3.13 1.99 1.14 1.30 1.14 19 18.07 16.57 1.50 2.26 1.50 20 19.99 17.43 2.56 6.58 2.56 Total 36.72 22.06 Exponential trend T Yt e? et -0.127 1 3.01 3.137 0.016 0.127 3.13 3.460 -0.330 0.109 0.330 19 18.07 18.276 -0.206 0.042 0.206 20 19.99 20.155 -0.165 0.027 0.165 Total 5.077 8.315
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